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By Chris Dionne
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I’m guest posting here again from http://www.backofthebaseballcard.com to discuss 6 starting pitchers you can snag off the waiver wire today that could give you a big second half.  All these guys have ownership rates of less that 25% in Yahoo leagues.  This is not a ranking, the order is random.  As with my other posts here, see the link at the bottom for a bonus two pitchers on this list.  Look for the Waiver Wire hitters next week.
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Brandon McCarthy – I’m a big fan of Brandon McCarthy this year.  His secondary numbers point to a much better pitcher than his stats show.   His FIP is way less than his ERA.  He has a great groundball rate and has given up what looks like, an unlucky amount of home runs.  He’s a better pitcher than his ERA shows.  He just moved to a tough stadium to play in, but he was in one before as well.  If his numbers regress positively as they should, he could be a 3.50 ERA for the Yankees, with a handful or more wins.  Run and grab him now.
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Wade Miley – Wade Miley is having a better season than you think he is.  His ERA sits at 4.18 and he’s striking out close out a batter per inning, while pitching for a bad team in a bad ballpark.  Admittedly not exciting numbers, but there’s some bad luck in there.  His XFIP on the year sits a 3.31 as he’s been unlucky with his balls in play and home run percentage.  He has the possibility of posting a 3.50 era and close to a strikeout per nine in the second half.  That’s a great pickup of waivers for the second half.
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Rubby De La Rosa – This is my biggest reach on the list.  The Red Sox seem determined to get this guy in the rotation, and after some deadline deals, I think they will have a spot for him.  He has decent numbers on the year in limited action.  I’m not basing this on number though, this is about stuff.  De La Rosa has great stuff.  He continues to have issues with walks, and his strikeout rate has yet to be what it should be, but the stuff is there.  He may not be an instant pickup now, but keep an eye on him.  He could put together a stud second half seemingly out of the blue.
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Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi was on the back end of most prospect list coming into the season.  He had a rough start when he was called up, but has been hot of late.  His ERA is a hair over 4 and his FIP is about half a run lower.  5 of his last 7 starts have been quality starts, and the two that weren’t were only for his 5.1 and 5.2 innings pitched.  He also has a crazy good strikeout rate this year, over 10 per nine innings.  This is higher than his minor league stats, so it’s likely to come down, but he should be able to maintain a 7-8 strikeouts per 9.  He’s a sneaky bet for value in the second half.
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Matt Shoemaker – Shoemaker has a 4.38 ERA on the year and is 7-2 in just over 63 innings since his call up.  That’s a decent back end pitcher.  His secondary numbers point to a better pitcher than that.  His FIP sits at 3.78 on the year due to some bad luck on his balls in play.    If he can pitch to his FIP in the second half, combined with his almost a strikeout per nine and you have a great waiver pickup.
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Drew Hutchison – I’ve gone back and forth on recommending Hutchison this year.  I like the strikeout potential he has, but I’m always weary of young guys blowing up.  As a waiver grab, he’s worth the risk.  He has the potential for a strikeout per inning in the second half.  He also plays on Toronto, so he should be a good bet for wins.  He will have a blow up or two in the second half, and he may be a guy that I sit against the top offences.  But he has the ability to be a 9k per 9, 3.80, 6-8 win guy in the second half.
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For two more bonus hitters, visit my website at
http://www.backofthebaseballcard.com/p/normal-0-false-false-false-en-us-x-none.html
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If you’ve watched much baseball you’ve hear someone state that a player will be what he is “On the back of his baseball card”. But what does the back of the baseball card really say about a player?? What does it say about the player tomorrow? And, What what will that baseball card say at the end of the year?
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At Back of the Baseball Card I take a look at what the “back of the baseball card” really says about a player and how that can help your daily, yearly, and dynasty leagues.
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Like on Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Back-Of-The-Baseball-Card/293197337514820
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Follow on Twitter
https://twitter.com/chris_dionne47
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Trevor Bauer Indians
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Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins
Bauer is 4-4 with a 3.89 ERA and 75 strikeouts in 78.2 innings. He’s 2-0 in July with a 2.84 ERA.
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Season Totals: 34-35, 590.2 IP, 477 Ks, 3.89 ERA (255 earned runs), 1.29 WHIP (580 hits, 183 walks)
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Yusmeiro Petit
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Yusmeiro Petit, San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies
Petit is 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Since June he has a 2.00 ERA.
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Season Totals: 34-35, 590.2 IP, 477 Ks, 3.89 ERA (255 earned runs), 1.29 WHIP (580 hits, 183 walks)
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Toby Gerhart Jags
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Jacksonville Jaguars running back Toby Gerhart is going from one of the best backup running backs in the leagues to a starter. Does he have what it takes to be a fantasy football starter?
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It is hard to fully trust a running back that has averaged just 69 carries per season, but he has delivered when given the chance. Now that he’s the lead back, expect him to be a player recommended by the BetOnIt.org on a near weekly basis.
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Last year Gerhart had one game with double-digit carries. He responded with 89 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries (5.9 yards per carry). In three games in which he had at least seven carries Gerhart ran for 247 yards on just 30 carries. That’s a whopping 8.2 ypc.
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In 2012 Gerhart never received double-digit carries. He never really got in a groove as Adrian Peterson was busy chasing the NFL rushing record.
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In 2011 Gerhart had five games with double-digit carries. In those five games he ran for 401 yards on 83 carries (4.8 ypc and 80.2 yards per game).
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In his rookie season (2010) Gerhart had three double-digit carry games. He combined for 207 yards on 50 carries (4.1 ypc). Clearly he gets better as he gets more carries. In nine games with double-digit carries Toby  has 697 yards on 148 carries (4.7 ypc, 77.4 ypg).
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Gerhart has also averaged 19.3 receptions per season in his four-year NFL career. He served as the Vikings’ third-down back. With his hands, he will likely stay on the field on plenty of third downs. Serving as a three-down back will help his cause.
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Gerhart has just five rushing touchdowns in his career, but that has more to do with Peterson than anything else. Toby is 6’0″ and 231 pounds. He should have no problem bulling his way into the end zone.
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Gerhart should have little problem getting the lion’s share of the work for the Jags. Jordan Todman is his backup and will serve more as a change-of-pace back than anything else. There isn’t much after that.
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Feel free to draft Gerhart as your RB2. You can play it safe and get a quality RB3, but you should really do that no matter who your RB2 is.
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We’re at the All-Star Break. Let’s take a look at how the streamers have worked out so far.
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Season Totals: 34-35, 590.2 IP, 477 Ks, 3.89 ERA (255 earned runs), 1.29 WHIP (580 hits, 183 walks)
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card
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Hello Lester’s Legend Readers,
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My name is Chris Dionne and I’m a long time fantasy baseball player in every type of format.  I run a fantasy baseball blog at http://www.backofthebaseballcard.com.  I’m guest posting here to point out 6 hitters who are due for a power uptick in the second half of the season. As with the post I did 2 weeks ago on starters, I’m not here to point out obvious names. I’m looking for the guys you may not be thinking of who have the talent and the numbers to put up surprising power numbers. Some of these guys will be owned in your league and may be good buy low candidates. Some of them you may be able to pluck off the waiver wire.
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This is not a ranking, the order is random.
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JJ Hardy – 25.67. That’s the average homeruns per year Hardy has had as a member of the Orioles. He has 3 this year. Obviously something is off. A quick look at his stats show a few stats a tad off from last year, but nothing alarming. His average is higher than it’s been the last few years, but not by much, and it looks to be related to some luck in batted balls. His strikeout rate is up and walk rate is down from last year, but not by huge numbers. His strikeout rate is 16.4% when it was 11.3% last year, but last year was a career low. His strikeout rate in 2011, when he hit 30 homers, was 16.2%. He’s still hitting doubles at his regular rate, he has 17 and is on pace for 29. His average the last 3 years is 28. He’s hitting flyballs in line with his career norms. The only thing that looks off here is the homers, and it’s way off. The big stat here is homerun to flyball rate. In the past 3 years 10%-15% of his flyballs have left the yard, this year it’s at 2.9%. I see nothing in his stats to point to this continuing. I’d guess that this corrects itself in the second half and he hits the 10-15 second half homers we’re used to.
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Alex Rios – Rios has been one of the luckiest hitters this year in terms of batting average. He has a very high batting average on balls in play that’s boosting his average. That will likely correct itself eventually. If you drafted him, you did so for his power and speed, not a batting average. The speed has been there, the power has disappeared. He only has 4 home runs on the year. He has hit 18 and 25 the last two years. For a guy with speed, he’s always hit a lot of flyballs. That has stayed consistent this year, as over 32% of his balls in play have been flyballs. So the flyballs are still being hit, they’re just not leaving the park. Hard to do in that small ballpark in Texas. His homerun to flyball rate a crazy low 4.2%. It was 12.6% in 2012 and 10.1% in 2013. He hit almost 100 flyballs in the first half. If the flyball percentage corrects itself, he could hit 9-11 homers in the second half. Assuming the steals stay steady, that’s a 10 homer, 14 steal second half with a .270-.280 average. That’s that you drafted. Buy him low now if you can.
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Jedd Gyorko – Jedd Gyorko had had an awful season. He’s either a long term DL stash or unowned in your league. His injury is said to be progressing well, but keep in eye on it as he gets closer. His power last year looked real. He suffered from really bad luck in his brief play this year. His average on balls in play was under .200 on the year. Second base has been absent power this year, in healthy when he returns, Gyroko could provide a power boost to the position, and he can likely be had on the cheap right now.
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Kole Calhoun – I liked him a lot as a sleeper coming into the season. He put up good numbers before hitting the DL for months. He is back now and crushing the ball. He’s still only owned in less than 70% of Yahoo leagues, despite his hot start off the DL. Calhoun is a good ballplayer. He’s solid in just about every aspect of the game and will get on base. If he can hit in the top of that Angels lineup, he can score a bunch of runs. Add 10 homers and 5 steals with a .300-ish average, and you have a guy that will be a top 50 bat over the second half of the year.
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Joe Mauer – I’ve never been a big fan of Mauer. I was recently asked about him in a trade review from a reader. When I looked into him, I found a hitter who has surprisingly been unlucky, and could be in for a big second half. Mauer is hitting .271 on the year with only a pair of homers. Not great production from a first baseman, or even a catcher. Looking at his stats though, he’s actually been unlucky in both average and homers. He has a .335 average on balls in play this year. That seems high, until you look at his average in balls in play the last few years. In 2012 it was .364 and in 2013 it was .383. He’s always hit a lot of line drives, as he continues to do this year, which creates a higher average on balls in play. If his BABIP were to normalize to the .360-.380 zone, you’re looking at an average around .300. Mauer has never been a home run hitter, but 2 homers is crazy low. Like Hardy, he has suffered from a very low homerun to flyball rate. His homerun to flyball rate in 2012 was just under 10% and in 2013, just over 12%. This year it 4.6%. That should regress positively to the 10% range in the second half. He’s also hitting less flyballs than he has in the past. His flyball rate his year is only 19.2%. In 2014 it was 25.4% and in 2012 it was 22.4%. If all these numbers come back to career norms, Mauer could post an average over .300 and hit 7-8 home runs in the second half of the year. Great stats from your catcher.
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Manny Machado – Machado has had a rough go of it so far this season. He spent a ton of time on the DL, and when he’s played, has been less than stellar. He looks healthy now and has been hot of late. He’s still well owned and popular, but owners out there have grown weary after his slow and injured start. I wasn’t a huge fan coming into the season, but in that ballpark, in that lineup, he could put up good second half numbers if he stays healthy.
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For two more bonus hitters, visit my website at http://www.backofthebaseballcard.com/p/8-hitters-primed-for-a.html.
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If you’ve watched much baseball you’ve hear someone state that a player will be what he is “On the back of his baseball card”. But what does the back of the baseball card really say about a player?? What does it say about the player tomorrow? And, What what will that baseball card say at the end of the year?
.

At Back of the Baseball Card I take a look at what the “back of the baseball card” really says about a player and how that can help your daily, yearly, and dynasty leagues.
.

Like on Facebook

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Back-Of-The-Baseball-Card/293197337514820
.

 | Posted by | Categories: fantasy baseball, MLB | Tagged: fantasy baseball, MLB |

Clay Buchholz Sox
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Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros
Buchholz has struggled this year, but is 1-1 in his past three starts with a 3.92 ERA. I like his chances against the lowly Astros.
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Season Totals: 33-34, 574.2 IP, 456 Ks, 3.95 ERA (252 earned runs), 1.31 WHIP (571 hits, 182 walks)
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