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Throwing out Amar’e Stoudemire’s three game 2005-06 season, he’s averaging less points (17.8) than he has since his rookie season, way back in 2002-2003. He’s four points per game below his career average, and 7.5 points below last year’s average in his first year with the Knicks.
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Not only is his scoring down, but his field goal percentage is off-the-charts down. We’re talking more than ten percent below is lifetime 53.4 percent shooting. The shooting woes run deep in New York. Only two players (Tyson Chandler and Landry Fields) getting significant run are above 47 percent. Fields is at 47.1 percent so even that isn’t entirely impressive. Of all the players to bounce back, Amar’e has the best odds.
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Also uncharacteristic of Amar’e Stoudemire is his lack of blocks. At 0.5 bpg he is only getting about a third of the blocks per game that he has got over the course of his career. Eight blocks in sixteen games just isn’t cutting it.
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It’s not a lost season by any means. Sure, the scoring isn’t the same, but 17.8 isn’t bad. Neither is a 8.4 rebound per game average. Assists have never been his strong suit, but he is averaging a career high 1.2 steals.
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Obviously getting Stoudemire isn’t going to be cheap. He’s still a huge name and it’s early enough that his owners may not be quite frustrated enough. His past eight games are helping your cause though. During that stretch he has as many 20+ point games as he has single-digit games. His scoring average is 14.6 ppg and his rebounding average is 7.8 rpg. He’s shooting 41.7 percent during the stretch. To make matters worse, he’s averaging 3.8 turnovers during the eight games, with at least five turnovers in half of the games.
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His owner may not be willing to move him right, but I bet he or she will listen. Given Amar’e's track record he’s a good bet to rebound. If you can get him at a discount, all the better.
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After hitting .103 in the postseason for Mitch Moreland, one wouldn’t think he could have ended 2011 on a worse note. That is before he had wrist surgery. While it will eventually prove to help Moreland, it does put him a little behind on his preparation for the 2012 season. He’s expected to be ready for Opening Day, but he could be limited in spring training.
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The Rangers were rumored to be sniffing around at Prince Fielder, but every team should have at least considered adding the big slugger. I wouldn’t put too much stock in that. Obviously if Fielder was in the mix, that would be an issue considering they have Moreland, Mike Napoli, Michael Young, and Adrian Beltre to fit into C, 1B, 3B, and DH.
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Moreland was solid during the first half of last year. He hit .272 with 38 runs, 11 HRs, 24 RBI, and a .783 OPS in 264 at bats before the All-Star Break. Not rock star numbers by any means, but solid. In the second half, as he dealt with the wrist injury, his numbers trailed off. He hit .241 with 22 runs, five HRs, 27 RBI, and a .667 OPS in 199 at bats after the break. The numbers obviously took a hit, but it was nice to see the RBI numbers actually improve.
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So he’ll enter the year as the Rangers’ primary first baseman, which is a good position to be in. I guess after his first half of 2011 and his 47-game stint in 2010 when he hit .255 with 20 runs, nine HRs, 25 RBI, and a .833 OPS in 145 at bats, he deserves a shot.
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His current Mock Draft Central ADP is 323, which would put him in the 27th round of 12-team fantasy drafts. At that rate, he’s definitely worth a look.
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Perhaps the happiest fantasy baseball players out there are those that hold Miguel Cabrera’s rights in keeper leagues. Even prior to the Prince Fielder signing, he was a consensus top three pick. Suddenly, he just became even more attractive to fantasy owners, which is hard to believe could even be possible.
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For starters, adding a bat like Fielder’s means Cabrera is going to get pitched to more frequently. They form a 1-2 punch that is even better than the combination that he formed with Ryan Braun in Milwaukee.
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You know Cabrera credentials. He is a lifetime .317 hitter. He doesn’t give you gaudy HR numbers, with a career high of 38, but he is consistent, averaging 33.1 over the past eight years. He has also hit .320 during that span with averages of 101.6 runs, 115.3 RBI and even 3.6 stolen bases. Cabrera had his two lowest RBI totals during full seasons in the past three years, but Fielder’s presence should get him back 115+ RBI territory.
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It’s not just Fielder’s bat that likely propels Cabrera to the number one spot in most leagues. While Fielder and Cabrera will likely each take terms at designated hitter, it’s Cabrera’s return to third base that puts him over the top.
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When you compare his numbers to Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, and Joey Votto, there isn’t much difference. If Mark Teixeira could get his batting average figured out, he could enter the discussion as well.
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However, when you put him up against the likes of David Wright, Adrian Beltre and Evan Longoria, not to mention the quick, steep dropoff, you’re looking at the biggest positional differential in the league, and it’s not even close.
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Jordan Crawford Heating Up

26 January 2012


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Washington Wizards guard Jordan Crawford has eight double-digit scoring efforts in his past ten games. The other two he went for nine points, giving him a 13.7 ppg scoring average during the stretch. He’s been particularly hot over his past six games averaging 15.2 ppg.
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He’s been helping out in other categories as well, averaging 3.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 0.7 steals, and 1.0 three-pointers per game during his past six games. While he hasn’t shot extremely well (44.4 percent) during the stretch, it is an improvement considering he’s shooting below 40.0 percent on the year.
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While even his hot streak isn’t comparable to last April and May when he averaged 19.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers in 18 starts, he can be a productive option. He was averaging nearly 40 minutes per game in those starts. Barring injury, he won’t come close to that amount of playing time, but as long as he’s averaging 20+ minutes he can be a spot starter.
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Obviously a lot will depend on how he’s used by Randy Wittman, who surprisingly landed the head coach position despite a horrible track record. Wittman went with a very balanced line in the battle of the have-nots last night. Ten players played at least 19 minutes and one more (Trevor Booker) checking in at nine minutes. Given the way Wittman’s good friend Flip Saunders was run out of town, Wittman could just be looking to see who shows a spark. Interesting times ahead in the nation’s capital. Just remember even bad teams often supply unlikely fantasy options.
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We already looked at the LestersLegends’ top 15 fantasy baseball first basement for 2012, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t additional options if you choose to wait on filling your first base slot to address shallower positions. Alternatively, many leagues offer corner infield slots, which put these options on your radar.
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Florida’s Gaby Sanchez had nearly identical 2009 and 2010 seasons. Both years he had 572 at bats, scored 72 runs, and hit 19 HRs. His hit totals were within four of each other (156, 152), his RBI were within seven (85, 78), and his average within 7 points (.273, .266). While those certainly aren’t elite numbers, a .270-72-19-80-4 line isn’t the worst you can do, especially if it means you have an distinct advantage elsewhere.
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Toronto’s Adam Lind didn’t return to his ridiculous .305-93-35-114-1 line that he posted in 2009, but his 2011 line of .251-56-26-87-1 was a solid enough improvement over 2010 (.237-57-23-72-0). He’s basically a two-category player (HR, RBI), which is fine if you can address the other categories elsewhere.
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Minnesota’s Justin Morneau is a risk/reward option. When he’s on, he is as good as almost any first basemen in the league. He’s dealt with concussions and other injuries that have limited him to just 150 games combined over the past two years. Concussions are serious business, but he claims to feel much better than at this time last year. Have a backup plan if you roll with the former MVP.
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Carlos Pena
returned to Tampa Bay. You know the deal with Pena. He’ll give you power, but you’ll have to live with his miserable batting average. His high water mark over the past three years is .227, which makes it a little tougher to swallow the 31.7 HRs and 88 RBI he averaged. He hit just .133 against lefties last year, and the Rays will likely sit him in those situations this year. That means his power numbers can take a hit, but he won’t be as damaging in the batting average department.
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It took an smoking second half (.320 average, .914 OPS) for James Loney to recover from his feeble first half (.268, .653) to at least allow him to finish with a solid .288 batting average and mediocre .755 OPS. He’s never been a power threat, but he averaged 89.3 RBI from 2008-2010. That number dropped to 65 last year. I’d only consider Loney a late round option at best.
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Todd Helton isn’t the player he once was, and you have to worry that his back will give him fits at some point given his age (38), but he still hit .302 last year with a .850 OPS.
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Seattle’s Justin Smoak did not impress last year hitting .234 with a .719 OPS and 15 HRs in 427 ABs. He did start the year strong hitting .284 with four HRs and 17 RBI in April. He’s a player to take a flier on late to see if he finally lives up to his potential.
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Billy Butler played 11 games at first base last year. If he has (or gains) first base eligibility in your league, he’s definitely a player to plug in that slot. He’ll be drafted regardless, but has more value if he’s not just listed as a DH/Utility.

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