LestersLegends.com

I’ve been invited to participate in Fantasy Trader’s fantasy football roundtable.

This week’s topic:
If one were to prorate Jamaal Charles’ final eight games of 2009 to a full season, he’d handily outscore Adrian Peterson and betters all RB’s not named Chris Johnson in PPR formats. What are your expectations for Charles in 2010?

Click here for the full article.

My response:
I began calling him Chris Johnson Lite at the end of the year because of his ability to rip off a long run or two seemingly every game. He posted a phenomenal 5.9 yards per carry, and had 1131 total yards with 8 TDs in the last eight weeks. That’s 141.4 yards and a score per game for half a year.

His beastly numbers impressed me enough to have him as my 11th rated RB heading into next year. While I can’t dismiss his numbers, I do get that Steve Slaton type vibe from Charles. I just don’t know if there’s an encore.

Kansas City has just about nothing going for them on offense outside of Charles. My guess is he’ll face a lot more eight and nine man fronts. Teams will dare the Chiefs to beat them with the run. I just don’t know that he can stand up to that sort of defensive pressure.

Jamaal Charles is the type of player that I will most likely not own in 2010. I can’t imagine a league with an owner that doesn’t hold him in higher regard than I do, and I’m OK with that.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Maybe has-been is too strong of a word for Berkman, but his HR total has dipped three straight years, and his numbers took a pretty sharp decline last year thanks to injuries. He’s no longer considered a second round pick. Even the third round seems premature for my 11th ranked first basemen (click to see rankings).

His 2009 dip is actually not that uncommon for Berkman. His even year/odd year splits since 2002 are staggering.

Even year averages:  .309, 104.8 runs, 36.5 HRs, 119 RBIs, 9.5 SBs
Odd year aveages:  ..283, 88.5 runs, 27 HRs, 89.3 RBIs, 5.8 SBs

If his eight-year trend were to continue, his fantasy owners would be in store for a big payday. For a guy that turns 34 tomorrow (happy early birthday Lance), I don’t quite see that happening. At his age, injuries are more likely to pop up, and you’re more likely to take longer to recover from them, especially as the season wears on. 

The good news if you’re trying to draft him, he’s historically does the bulk of his damage in the first half of the season. His  OPS (.994 compared to .937) is significantly better before the All-Star game. His AB/HR ratio is 15.3 before the break and 18.9 after it. He also has 0.76 RBIs per game before the break and 0.63 after it.  The past two years, in particular, he had 40 HRs before the break and 14 after it.

My suggestion if you take Berkman in your draft is to try to move him in July or early August. Get good value as you head down the home stretch.

Prediction:  .300, 90 runs, 30 HRs, 90 RBIs, 4 SBs

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox:  Jake Peavy
Cincinnati Reds:  Joey Votto
Cleveland Indians:  Grady Sizemore
Colorado Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez
Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera
Florida Marlins: Cameron Maybin

Here’s my second look at the fantasy first basemen rankings.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

1.  Albert Pujols:  My thoughts haven’t wavered on Pujols as the #1 first baseman. Nobody’s have.

2.  Ryan Howard:  I bumped him up a spot. His average isn’t going to kill you, but you simply can’t ignore the HRs and RBIs he brings to the table. Sure, Prince Fielder was toe-to-toe with him last year, and Tex and Miggy have the potential, but Howard has been doing it for four straight years.
(2006-2009):  .278, 102 runs, 49.5 HRs, 143 RBIs, 2.5 SBs

3. Mark Teixeira:  I rank Tex at three simply because of the ballpark and lineup he’s in.

4.  Miguel Cabrera:  I went into further detail with Cabrera (click to see article) to justify the #4 ranking. I think his average is more likely to be a competitive edge over Prince Fielder, than Fielder’s HRs and RBIs over Cabrera.

5.  Prince Fielder:  His #5 ranking is merely a reflection as to how deep the position is.

6.  Victor Martinez:  Technically a catcher, V-Mart has first base eligibility. That dramatically adds to his value.

7.  Kevin Youkilis: Same goes for Youk, but replace catcher with third base.

8.  Adrian Gonzalez:  Quietly, steadily a nice source of HRs and RBIs.

9.  Justin Morneau:  I bumped him down a few notches mainly because of his injury history and the uncertainty of Target Field. Weather could play a key role in the opening and closing months of his season.

10.  Joey Votto:  Another player we profiled (click here for the article). Potential for a .310 average with 25-30 HRs and 100-110 RBIs. Read the rest of this entry »

Fantasy Pros 911 is doing a series on Facebook where they ask a question on their discussion board. Then they invite group members to weigh in.

The question at hand is “Which Pitcher do you see making the most starts in 2010″?

1) Chris Carpenter

2) Brandon Webb

3) Johan Santana

4) Franciso Liriano

My response:  I would have to go Johan Santana. He shut it down last year with an elbow injury, but it wasn’t one that involved more than a mere scope. While I don’t like my pitcher to go under the knife in the offseason, he had a much milder injury Brandon Webb.

Before being limited to 25 starts last year, Johan averaged 33.6 starts his previous five seasons. Chris Carpenter has made just 32 combined starts his previous three seasons. Plus, he’ll turn 35 early into the 2010 season.

I question Francisco Liriano staying in the bigs because of effectiveness about as much as I have any injury concerns. The slider that made him untouchable isn’t there any more. Neither is his control. He hasn’t make the necessary adjustments.

Super Bowl XLIV Results:  0-1
My Son’s Results:  0-1

Regular Season Lock Picks:  31-3 (.912)
Regular Season Total:  177-79 (.691)
Playoff Picks:  4-7
Pro Bowl Pick:  1-0
Overall Total:  182-86 (.679)

My son’s Playoff Picks:  5-2
My son’s Pro Bowl Pick:  1-0
My son’s Overall Total:  6-2

These are heads-up picks. The Yahoo ATS challenge wrapped up. I finished tied for third at 134-119-3 (.529). If you want to take part in the challenge next year, leave me a message in the comment with your e-mail or send one to me at contact@lesterslegends.com.

Time for the final results of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.

Scoring

6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Peyton Manning over Drew Brees +2:  Loser Manning 20.65, Brees 24.3 (22.3 actual +2)
Donald Brown over Reggie Bush:  Loser Brown 2.9, Bush 6.3
Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon over Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Jeremy Shockey, and David Thomas
Winner
Indy Triplets:  23.8
Colston, Henerson, Meachem, Shockey, Thomas: 23.4
Super Bowl Picks:  1-2

Season Record
Regular Picks: 41-40-1
Super Stretch Picks:  8-12
Playoffs Picks:  7-7
Pro Bowl Picks:  0-3
Overall: 56-62-1

I’ve scoured the fantasy basketball waiver wires to find gems so you don’t have to.

Ryan Gomes, SF/PF, Minnesota Timberwolves
Gomes averaged 19.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steal, and 3.5 three-pointers last week. He shot 60.9 percent from the floor and 75.0 percent from the line. Gomes has scored in double-figures in his last six games. He’s owned in 29.0 percent of Yahoo! and 3.3 percent of ESPN leagues.

Corey Brewer, SG/SF, Minnesota Timberwolves
Brewer also played well for the Wolves. He’s actually a preferred choice over Gomes. Last week Brewer averaged 15.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.5 steals, and 2.0 three-pointers. He shot 44.4 percent from the field without missing a free throw. Corey is owned in 55.0 percent of Yahoo! and 30.3 percent of ESPN leagues.

George Hill, PG/SG, San Antonio Spurs
Hill has continued to play well even after Tony Parker’s return. Last week he averaged 20.3 points, 2.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 0.7 steals, and 1.7 three-pointers. He shot 53.8 percent from the floor and 77.8 percent from the line. Hill is owned in 33.0 percent of Yahoo! and  10.3 percent of ESPN leagues.

Robin Lopez, PF/C, Phoenix Suns
Lopez averaged 13.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks while shooting 56.7 percent of his shot. He hit all of his free throws. Lopez’s numbers could rise if/when Amar’e Stoudemire gets dealt. Robin is owned in 41.0 percent of Yahoo! and 8.5 percent of ESPN leagues.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Cameron Maybin was on the short list of potential 2009 NL Rookies of the Year. In retrospect, that was a pretty silly prediction given his track record. He hadn’t played Triple-A ball prior to last year, and he had mixed results in for Double-A Carolina in 2008.

He had impressive numbers like 73 runs, 8 triples, 13 HRs, and 21 SBs in 390 ABs. He did, however, hit just .277, which is fine by big league standards, but far from elite in Double-A ball. Even worse were the 124 strikeouts. He struck out once every 3.1 at bats. For a player with his gift of speed, not putting the ball in play is a crime.

He was sent down to Triple-A New Orleans where he hit .319, but wasn’t the force he was in Double-A with just 44 runs, 3 HRs, and 8 SBs in 298 ABs. He did, however, manage to cut his strikeout total down to 58, or once every 5.1 at bats.

He was able to translate those numbers to the majors when he received his September call-up from the Marlins. He hit .293 with 19 runs, 3 HRs, and 10 RBIs in 92 at bats. Even more importantly he struck out just 20 times, or once every 4.6 at bats.

Prediction:  .265, 70 runs, 10 HRs, 40 RBIs, 20 SBs

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox:  Jake Peavy
Cincinnati Reds:  Joey Votto
Cleveland Indians:  Grady Sizemore
Colorado Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez
Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera

1.  St. Louis Rams:  Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
I know they need help on offense, but you to properly build a team you need quality play on both lines of scrimmage. They addressed the offensive line last year with Jason Smith, bypassing Mark Sanchez. They’ll make another sound decision when they grab Suh, the best defensive player in the country.

2.  Detroit Lions:  Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
They drafted their franchise QB last year so now it’s time to protect their investment.

3.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
Tampa Bay needs some serious help on defense, and adding a top defensive tackle is a good start.

4.  Washington Redskins:  Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
Mike Shanahan won’t likely stick with Jason Campbell as his QB of the future. Campbell could have one year left in him as Clausen develops.

5.  Kansas City Chiefs:  Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
Kansas City needs help on both sides of the ball. They could try to trade down to avoid a big rookie contract. If they stay put they go with the best available, and that’s Berry.

6.  Seattle Seahawks:  Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
I know Pete Carroll said Matt Hasselbeck is his guy, but he’s more the present than the future. Bradford could learn from Hasselbeck for a year or two before taking over the reins.

7.  Cleveland Browns:  Joe Haden, CB, Florida
As much as the Browns need a WR, they’re better served adding a premium cornerback.

8.  Oakland Raiders:  Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
Al won’t grab the fastest WR in the draft, at least not with this pick. He’ll take this giant (6′7″) to bolster his offensive line.

9.  Buffalo Bills:  Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
He won’t make up for passing on Michael Oher last year, but it’s a start. Offensive-minded Chan Gailey knows you need strong line play before an offense can hum.

10.  Jacksonville Jaguars, Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama
Playing in the same division with the league’s best QB (Peyton Manning), RB (Chris Johnson), and WR (Andre Johnson), the Jags need to go defense here. McLain is the top inside linebacker in the draft.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s a look at some fantasy basketball players that blew up the box score last night.

D.J. Augustin, Charlotte Bobcats
Augustin had 13 points and 5 assists against the Hornets. He’s worth using in as a fill-in player in daily leagues, but doesn’t merit a roster spot in weekly ones.

Kris Humphries, New Jersey Nets
Kris had 14 points and 19 rebounds last night. He’s averaging 9.8 points and 10.0 rebounds in his last four games.

Jonas Jerebko, Detroit Pistons
Jonas had 20 points and 7 rebounds against the Nets. He’s inconsistent, but a decent plug-in play in daily leagues.

Brad Miller, Chicago Bulls
Miller had 13 points and 8 rebounds. The Bulls shut Joakim Noah down until after the All-Star Break, so Miller is a decent short-term play.

Ramon Sessions, Minnesota Timberwolves
Sessions had 19 points and 6 assists against the Grizzlies. He’s averaging 5.6 assists in his last five games so he has some use in daily leagues.

T.J. Ford, Indiana Pacers
Ford had 20 points against the Bucks. Look for him to begin playing more and regain some fantasy value as he gets healthy.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Milwaukee Bucks
Luc had 18 points and 11 rebounds. He’s now had back-to-back solid games.

Jerry Stackhouse, Milwaukee Bucks
Stack had 14 points and 6 rebounds. I’m just amazed that he’s contributing at his age. I wouldn’t add him though.

Ty Lawson, Denver Nuggets
Chauncey Billups was out, and Lawson filled in admirably with 25 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists. With just two games before the All-Star Game, there’s a possibility Billups  could sit both games out, which would give Lawson a nice spike in value.

Chris Andersen, Denver Nuggets
You haven’t really heard too much from him lately, but his 15 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 blocks were solid.  He had 15 boards the previous game against the Lakers, and is averaging 1.8 blocks in his last five games.

Shannon Brown, Los Angeles Lakers
Shannon had 19 points as Kobe Bryant missed a game. He too could be shelved until the All-Star Game, but given Kobe’s track record, I’m not sure that’s likely.

George Hill, San Antonio Spurs
Tony Parker is back, but Hill continues to play well. He had 22 last night. He’s averaging 19.2 over his last five games.

I was invited to do a 2010 fantasy football mock draft. Here’s the draft order.

1 Rotowire
2 ProFSA.com
3 FantasyFootballWhiz
4 RotoPicks
5 Lesters Legends
6 Bruno Boys
7 Fantasy Football Maniaxs
8 Junkyard Jake
9 FantasyFootballTrader
10 Fanatic Fantasy Football
11 FantasyMojo.com
12 FantasyFootballStarter

Thirteenth Round Pick
I was debating grabbing Pittsburgh Defense last round or a backup TE. I opted for the D, and two of the backup TE’s I was considering (Carlson, Keller) went off the board. Fortunately the position is deep and I still have the Millers to decide between.

Drafted Team 
QB1:  Matt Schaub (3)
QB2:  Matt Ryan (8)
RB1:  Michael Turner (1)
RB2:  Rashard Mendenhall (2)
RB3:  Felix Jones (5)
RB4:  LenDale White (11)
WR1:  Santonio Holmes (4)
WR2:  Michael Crabtree (6)
WR3:  Percy Harvin (7)
WR4:  Julian Edelman (10)
TE1:  Visanthe Shiancoe (9)
TE2:  Heath Miller (13)
DEF1:  Pittsburgh (12)