2007 Fantasy Football Disappointments
Each year there are guys who fall way short of expectations. Sometimes it’s because of age. Other times it may be a fluke factor. Last year I was decent prediction sleepers, but did quite well picking Trent Green, Tiki Barber, Santana Moss, and Jason Witten to not meet their expectations.
Some I’m hoping to do the same this year.
I’ll start at the Quarterback position. Obviously the biggest bust will be Michael Vick, who had excellent fantasty numbers last year.
My pick this year is Vince Young. Not just because of the Madden Curse. Yahoo has him ranked 7th among QBs. Sporting News is a little more conservative at 11th. CBS Sportsline has him 8th. I don’t question Young’s talent. I question the talent around him. The running game is a mess with a fat, lazy guy and a soft, oft-injured guy. Not to mention his stats last year just weren’t worthy of a Top 8 QB. He averaged 159 yards/start passing. He did make up for it with 40.6 yards rushing per game. His 12 passing TDs (less than one per game) were aided by 7 rushing TDS (over half a TD per game). He also threw 13 picks and lost 3 fumbles. Young is projected to throw for 2900 yards, rush for 840 yards, have 16 TD passes and run for 9 more. I just don’t see it.
Prediction: 2800 passing yards, 650 rushing yards, 16 TDs, 6 rushing TDs, 20 INTs
I’m sticking in the AFC South for my RB Bust pick. I don’t see anyway Maurice Jones-Drew comes close to his rookie production. Yahoo has him projected to be the 15th best RB next year (ahead of Willis McGahee, Edge, Cedric Benson, and others). CBS Sportsline has him ranked 14th (ahead of Benson, Edge, and Ronnie Brown). Yahoo projects him to have 1264 yards and 12 TDs. I’m not buying that. He’ll be a decent RB again, but he still has to share with Fred Taylor. If you’re thinking MJD is going to be a solid as he was in the 2nd half of last year, you’re going to be disappointed.
Prediction: 1100 total yards, 8 rushing & receiving TDs
I’m going over to the NFC for this one. I’m talking Torry Holt. He’s 31, which isn’t terrible for WRs, but he’s not getting any younger. Throw in offseason knee surgery, and the questions start. Yahoo has him ranked 4th (ahead of Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne, etc). CBS Sportsline has him 5th. Yahoo predicts 1200 yards and 9 TDs. Last year he had nearly 1200 yards and 10 TDs. However, 150 of those yards and 3 of those scores came in one game. He only had four 100 yard games last year, and even more importantly one 1 after Week 6. He also only had 3 TDs after Week 6. He averaged 66.1 yards and .3 TDs in the last ten weeks of 2006. That’s an average of 8.4 fantasy points per game. That would project to 1058 yards and 5 TD. It’s not bad, but it’s clearly not #1 WR status. I’d still take him as a #1 WR, but he’s not the same guy he used to be. I think he’ll still get good yardage, but the TDs may be less frequent. Adding Randy McMichael and Drew Bennett to the mix will almost guarantee that.
Prediction: 1100 yards, 7 TDs
Torry Holt isn’t going to be the only Big Dog I predict will take a fall this year. I’m predicting Tony Gonzalez to take a step back as well. CBS Sportsline has him ranked 2nd. Yahoo has him ranked 3rd (Todd Heap jumped him). Gonzo had 900 yards and 5 TDs. The yardage total was quite good, but the TD dip has to be concerning. The 5 TDs came in 3 games, which is even worse. He only cracked 70 yards 5 times. 6 times he was held below 40 yards. He’s also 31 this year. The KC line took a blow when Will Shields retired. I just get the feeling he’s going to be asked to stay in on pass protection a little more. He’s still a weekly starter, but he’s not even close to Gates territory any more. He’s way back with the pack.
Prediction: 700 yards, 5 TDs