2009 KFFL Analysis Draft

Aug 18, 2009

I was fortunate enough to be asked to participate in the 2009 KFFL Fantasy Football Analysis Draft.  It is a group of 11 fantasy football experts and little old me.  Here is a look at the participants:

1. FFLibrarian.com – Sara Holliday
2. FantasyPros911.com – Paul Greco
3. FootballGuys.com – Jeff Pasquino
4. KFFL.com – Cory J. Bonini
5. FantasySharks.com – Tony Holm
6. TheHuddle.com – David Dorey
7. NoOffseason.com – Paul Hickey
8. Time Warner Cable – Herbie Teope
9. LestersLegends.com – Ryan Lester
10. RotoExperts.com – Scott Engel
11. OPEN Sports – Ian Riley
12. KFFL.com – William Del Pilar

League Details

  • Teams: 12 teams
  • Roster: 16 player
  • Starting Lineup: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 PK, 1 DT
  • League Scoring Details: Combination with PPR Scoring

My Picks
1.09 – Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans

In a PPR league I would rather invest my first round pick on an elite WR than a somewhat questionable RB.  Johnson hauled in 115 passes for 1575 yards and 8 TDs.  He has another 100+ reception season on his resume in 2006.  Now that the Texans have a capable running game in Steve Slaton and targets to take some of the pressure off in Owen Daniels and Kevin Walter, Andre Johnson should be able to put up another monster year.
Prediction:  105 receptions, 1450 yards, 10 TDs
Others considered:  Randy Moss

2.04 – Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts
I did what I think you need to do in the bottom half of a PPR league.  Secure two elite WRs.  Reggie Wayne was a little disappointing in 2008 with 82 receptions for 1145 yards and 6 TDs.  I’m not sure he ever got in a rhythm with Peyton Manning, something that I fully believe will be rectified in the preseason.  With Marvin Harrison gone there is no question who the leader of the WR corps is.  Wayne should bounce back in a big way.
Prediction:  95 catches, 1400 yards, 10 TDs
Others considered:  Steve Smith

3.09 – Kevin Smith, RB, Detroit Lions
Smith had a great rookie year considering he played on a winless team.  He ran for nearly 1000 yards, 976 to be exact, with 8 TDs.  He added 39 receptions for 286 yards, which makes him an asset in PPR leagues.  In the second half Smith averaged nearly 100 yards per game and half a TD.  If he can replicate those numbers with an improved Offense, Smith will be a great value at the bottom of round three.
Prediction:  1150 rushing yards, 45 receptions for 350 receiving yards, 8 TDs
Others considered:  Ryan Grant

4.04 – Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts
I just couldn’t pass up the value of Peyton Manning in the fourth round.  You can practically plug him in for 4000 yards and 25 TDs every year.  Despite the turnover in Indianapolis, Manning should have another big year in him.  He should be fully healthy and determined to improve on a somewhat disappointing 2008 season.
Prediction:  4400 yards, 28 TDs, 12 INTs
Others considered:  None.  It’s Peyton Manning in the 4th round

5.09 – Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Arizona Cardinals
I am taking a chance that Beanie Wells will excel with the Cardinals.  He brings them explosiveness that both Edge and Hightower lacked with plenty of power.  If he can stay healthy he should have a solid rookie campaign.
Prediction:  1150 yards, 8 TDs, 10 receptions
Others considered:  Jonathan Stewart

6.04 – Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers
Gates took a step back in 2008, but remains one of the elite Tight Ends in the league.  He is a TD scoring machine with 49 the last five seasons.  He has committed himself to conditioning during the offseason and could rebound in a big way.  He could easily be the highest scoring TE, and to get him in the sixth round was too much of a value to pass up.
Prediction:  80 receptions, 850 yards, 10 TDs
Others considered:  None

7.09 Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Fast Willie’s stock is dropping because of Rashard Mendenhall’s return, but he’s a good value in the 7th round (81st overall pick), especially considering it is a contract year.  Willie has several good matchups this year with two each against Cleveland and Cincinnati, Detroit, Denver, Kansas City, and Oakland on the schedule.
Projection:  1000 total yards, 5 TDs, 15 receptions
Others considered:  Jamal Lewis, Darren Sproles

8.04 Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, Miami Dolphins
Ted Ginn, Jr. made some strides last year, and I expect him to continue to progress in his third NFL season.  He has the speed to turn short passes into long gains.  He just needs to be more consistent.  He has been impressive in camp thus far, and could develop into a solid WR3.
Prediction:  70 receptions for 1000 yards,  100 rushing yards, 7 total TDs
Others considered:  Steve Breaston, Devin Hester

9.09 Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh
Running Backs have been jumping off the shelves so I figured I would grab one with plenty of upside, who also protects my butt in case my earlier selection of Willie Parker doesn’t pan out.
Prediction:  600 total yards, 8 TDs
Others considered:  None

10.04  Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST
I figured that the tenth round was the right time to grab an elite Defense.  Being the first to take a Defense I had full range on my selection.  I opted to go with the Super Bowl Champs, who have a pretty favorable schedule.
Prediction:  Top five fantasy defense.
Others considered:  New York Giants D/ST

11.09 Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants
I already have Peyton, so why not pair him with his richer, little brother.  The backup QBs are getting pretty scarce and Eli has a sweet matchup against the Saints in New Orleans in Week 6, which is when Peyton is on bye.  Getting Eli in Round 11 seems like a pretty good value pick.
Prediction:  3300 yards, 22 TDs, 15 INTs, 1 rushing TD
Others considered:  Nate Washington, Michael Jenkins

12.04 Patrick Crayton, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Crayton should also benefit from T.O.’s departure as he will slide back into the starters role.  With Witten, Roy Williams, and the rushing attack garnering the bulk of the attention, Crayton and Miles Austin should be able to carve out fantasy roles.
Prediction:  50 receptions for 700 yards, 6 TDs
Others considered:  Miles Austin

13.09 Baltimore Ravnes D/ST
The defenses have been slow to come off the board so I figured I would take a second elite defense rather than adding a backup position player. 
Prediction:  Top ten fantasy defense
Others considered:  None

14.04 Muhsin Muhammad, WR, Carolina Panthers
For my WR5 I went with a steady veteran who should get plenty of looks because of the attention that the running game and Steve Smith garner.  Muhsin doesn’t have a ton of upside, but you know what you’re going to get from him.
Prediction:  65 catches for 800 yards, 6 TDs
Others considered:  None

15.09 Anthony Fasano, TE, Miami Dolphins
Fasano had a solid fantasy season thanks to his seven TDs.  He was a bit inconsistent, but I’m hoping not to have rely on  him with Gates on board.  He is serviceable at best, but at this point worth the gamble.
Prediction:  40 receptions for 400 yards, 5 Tds
Others considered:  None

16.04 Nate Kaeding, K, San Diego Chargers
I needed a Kicker.  Kaeding is pretty good.  San Diego should have a good offense again.  He plays in warm weather.
Prediction:  Top ten fantasy kicker.
Others considered:  None

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One Response so far | Have Your Say!

  1. brentmulligan
    September 2nd, 2009 at 3:19 pm #

    What is the phrase … super, great idea

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