2010 KFFL Fantasy Baseball Analysis Draft

Mar 8, 2010


I was fortunate enough to be asked to participate in the 2010 KFFL Fantasy Baseball Analysis Draft.

I had the second overall pick.

Round 1 – Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins
With the second overall pick I chose Hanley Ramirez. He is a five category player averaging 117.5 runs, 25.8 HRs, 78.3 RBIs, 41 SBs, and a .316 average over the past four years.

I also considered Alex Rodriguez and Chase Utley, but Hanley, who is 26, offers more upside. I’m looking for Hanley to hit .330 with 115+ runs, 30 HRs, 100 RBIs, and 35 SBs.

Round 2 – Victor Martinez, C/1B, Boston Red Sox
The Catcher position is relatively deep, but there are only a couple that stand out. Victor Martinez is one of them. If his 56 game performance of things to come for Martinez, sign me up. He hit .336 with 32 runs, 8 HRs, and 41 RBIs.

Hitting third in the Red Sox lineup behind Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia should provide him ample opportunities to reach 100+ RBIs again. I am expecting a .310 season from him with 80 runs, 20 HRs, 110 RBIs.

Round 3 – Pablo Sandoval, 3B/1B, San Francisco Giants
With five players with third base eligibility going in the first 24 picks, the position is drying up rather quickly. Not that it’s a deep one to begin with. Pablo Sandoval should help maintain the high batting average I’ve established so far, while bring some power and run production. I’m predicting another .330 year for the Kung Fu Panda with 85 runs, 25 HRs, and 85 RBIs. If the Giants are able to add another bat, his RBI total should increase.

Round 4 – Zack Greinke, SP, Kansas City Royals
Greinke was an absolute beast last year going 16-8 with a 2.16 ERA, and a 1.07 WHIP. His ERA was the lowest in baseball last year. He also had 242 strikeouts, which was good for third in the league. Greinke was equally as effective, save for the win total, both before and after the All-Star Break. He’s just 26 and really coming into his own. I’m expecting a 15-8 record with 240 Ks, a 2.50 ERA, and a 1.10 WHIP.

Round 5 – Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
I couldn’t resist going back-to-back with power pitchers. Verlander led the majors last year with 269 strikeouts. He also tied for the league lead with 19 wins and posted a respectable 3.45 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Verlander turns 27 this month and has been a force three of the past four years. I like that the Tigers locked him up to a long-term deal so he doesn’t have that distraction to deal with. I’m looking for a 18-8 season from Verlander with a 3.30 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and 250 Ks.

Round 6 – Carlos Lee, OF, Houston Astros
A lot of outfielders have come off the board, and I figure it was time for me to get in the game. Though Lee will turn 34 this summer, he hasn’t shown signs of stopping. He’s hit .300 for four straight years, has had 99+ RBIs since 2003, and 26+ HRs since 2002. He’s not the slugger he once was, but in the sixth round he represents a good value.

Round 7 – Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Boston Red Sox
A couple of top closers already came off the board and there is a long time until I pick again. If I chose to wait on a closer here, I could be looking at scraps in the 8th round. Papelbon should be good for around 40 saves, a sub-2.00 ERA, a sub 1.000 WHIP, and 75 Ks.

Round 8 – Joakim Soria, RP, Kansas City Royals
Soria is one of the filthiest closers in the game. He should provide healthy save and strikeout totals with a microscopic ERA and WHIP. Securing a second elite closer should establish me as a leader in the saves category.

Round 9 – Michael Cuddyer, OF/1B, Minnesota Twins
By picking up Cuddy I now have additional first base flexibility. I can use at 1B, CI, or OF. He set a career high last year with 32 HRs. Cuddy will turn 31 next month so I expect him to continue to produce.

Round 10 – Denard Span, OF, Minnesota Twins
Span continued the recent tradition of quality Twins’ centerfielders (Puckett, Hunter), and quietly was their most important player not name Joe Mauer. He’s not going to give you a lot of power. That’s not his game. He will score a ton of runs, especially with Orlando Hudson solidifying the two-hole. He will also give you a healthy average and around 30 stolen bases.

Round 11 – Chad Billingsley, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Billingsley regressed a bit in 2009, but still managed to post a 4.03 ERA with a dozen wins. I see him posting numbers more like 2008 when he had a 16-10 record with a 3.14 ERA and 201 Ks.

Round 12 –  Placido Polanco, 2B/3B, Philadelphia Phillies
I think Polanco will do well in his new digs. He’s going to a much better lineup and to a better hitters’ park. Neither power nor speed are his game, but he should hit .300 or better with 90 runs, 10 HRs, 70 RBIs, and 5 SBs. He fills a hole for me at 2B and once he gets his 3B eligibility will give me added flexibility.

Round 13 – Corey Hart, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Hart was down last year hitting .260 with 12 HRs. He’ll turn 28 in March, and is a year removed from back-to-back 20-20 seasons. I can use both the power and the speed. I’ve built up my average enough so far that I can stomach the possible .260ish season he could have.

Round 14 – Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals
In a two-catcher league I wanted to secure a solid number two. Molina is better known for his defense (back-to-back gold glove winner), but has hit .304 and .293 the past two years. He was also 11th and 12th among catchers in RBIs. Additionally, his 9 SBs last year are promising.

Round 15 – Frank Francisco, RP, Texas Rangers
Francisco recorded 25 saves for the Rangers last year. He also sported a nice WHIP of 1.12 and 57 Ks in 49-1/3 IP. C.J. Wilson had 14 saves for Texas last year so if Francisco can stay healthy 30+ saves with 75 Ks is not out of reach.

Round 16 – Franklin Gutierrez, OF, Seattle Mariners
Gutierrez makes a great fourth outfielder (or fifth depending on how my roster shakes out). He hit for average (.285) with decent runs (85), HRs (18), and SBs (16). He has the potential to have a 20-20 season. His RBI total should increase with the addition of Chone Figgins.

Round 17 – Octavio Dotel, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates
After punting the saves category last year, I’m doing the opposite. Dotel is my 4th closer and should give me a leg up on the competition. His career 11.0 K/9 ratio  is an added benefit.

Rount 18 – Everth Cabrera, SS, San Diego Padres
Cabrera fills a need at MI as well as provides me a boost to the SB category. He had 25 in 103 games last year, and could challenge for 40 this year. I’m hoping for 80-90 runs as well.

Round 19 – Mark Buehrle, SP, Chicago White Sox
With my 4th pitcher I’m going with the steady Mark Buehrle. He doesn’t get a lot of K’s, but I’ve addressed that need earlier with Greinke and Verlander. You can pretty much pencil in 13-15 wins, a sub-4.00 ERA, and a sub-1.30 WHIP.

Round 20 – Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, Oakland A’s
I chose Kouzmanoff to fill my Corner Infield position. He has averaged 19.7 HRs and 82 RBIs the past three seasons. Having escaped PETCO, he should be able to at least match that production.

Round 21 – Josh Willingham, OF, Washington Nationals
Willingham is a decent source of late round power. He has averaged 21.5 HRs the past four seasons.

Round 22 – Derek Lowe, SP, Atlanta Braves
Lowe has had at least 12 wins every year dating back to 2002. His ERA & WHIP went to hell last year, but he’s a good candidate for a rebound.

Round 23 – Travis Snider, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
I figured I’d inject some youth in my lineup with Snider. Snider struggled in his first taste with the Jays, but has a ton of power potential.

Round 24 – Skip Schumaker, 2B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Skip gives me the flexibility to play him at 2B, MI, and OF. He’s hit .302 with 87 runs and .303 with 85 runs the past two years. Not much for SBs or HRs, but a good, solid bench player.

Round 25 – Garrett Atkins, 1B/3B, Baltimore Orioles
You can’t be happy with the way Atkins has been trending, but he has shown ability to be a four category producer. He also gives me positional flexibility.

Round 26 – Gil Meche, SP, Kansas City Royals
At this stage in the draft I’m looking for some pitching depth. I’m hoping Meche is more like his 2007 & 2008 version by giving me 10 wins, a sub-4.00 ERA, and 150 Ks.

Round 27 – Jesus Flores, C, Washington Nationals
At this point I’m looking for catcher depth. Hoping he can hold off Pudge. His BA & OPS have improved each year. All he needs is ABs.

Round 28 – Jose Guillen, OF, Kansas City Royals
He averaged 21.5 HRs and 98 RBIs in 2007 & 2008 making him worth a gamble at the end of the draft.

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6 Responses so far | Have Your Say!

  1. Rad
    March 8th, 2010 at 12:25 pm #

    Nice job getting Ramirez and Martinez, then you cleaned up with Verlander in the 5th round, sweet. Nice team Les, lots of flexibility.

  2. LestersLegends
    March 8th, 2010 at 12:56 pm #

    Thank you sir. I finished 6th last year. Hoping to improve.

  3. Rotoprofessor
    March 8th, 2010 at 1:52 pm #

    The first thing that jumps out at me is drafting Papelbon and Soria in back-to-back rounds. I’m not against taking a closer at that part of the draft, but two leaves you a bit dry in other areas.

  4. LestersLegends
    March 8th, 2010 at 1:55 pm #

    I hear ya. I punted the category last year and wanted to make sure I got plenty this year.

  5. Shicka-Dance
    March 8th, 2010 at 2:56 pm #

    Jose Guillen? Might want to re-think that one. He’s not gonna do anything this year except complain about being on the Royals.

  6. LestersLegends
    March 8th, 2010 at 2:59 pm #

    28th round pick. He may not even see opening day on my team.

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