2011 Fantasy Baseball Profile: Will Aaron Hill’s Luck Change This Year?

Feb 26, 2011


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By Matt Carpenter
twitter.com/carmatts
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After a career year in 2009, Aaron Hill crushed his fantasy owners with a .205 average, 26 HR’s, and 68 RBI’s in 2010. That is not worthy of the 4th round pick it would have cost to own him. A lot of people are going to be way down on him. A look at the numbers though, suggests a modest bounce back and good value pick.
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Let’s hope Mr. Hill didn’t spend any time in Vegas in 2010, as he was baseball’s version of the cooler. His BABIP was .196, making him the unluckiest batter in the league and his closest competition for the crown was Carlos Pena, a full 26 points “luckier.” Hill’s career BABIP is .288. Another perplexing statistic is his .125 average against lefties versus a career .273 average against southpaws.
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Despite Hill’s troubles, his walk rate actually improved and his strikeout rate stayed the same. He also smacked 26 homers, the 2nd most of his career. Hill will be 29 entering the 2011 season, very much in his prime.
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According to Mock Draft Central Hill is currently the 163rd player off the board and the 14th 2nd baseman off the board. For anyone who does not get a top tier 2nd baseman, it maybe worth it to fill your other positions and have Hill fall into your lap at the end of the draft. If you do so, expect a more respectable .270 average with close to 30 homers. That is, with a little luck.
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