2011 Fantasy Baseball Profile: Wright & Reyes Did It; Can Bay and Beltran Bounce Back?

Feb 21, 2011


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2009 was a disaster for the New York Mets. It seemed that if something could go wrong, it did. 2010 wasn’t much better for the Mets, but at least David Wright (.283-87-29-103-19) and Jose Reyes (.282-83-11-54-30) rebounded. Now the question is can Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran do the same?
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Jason Bay was a disappointment coming over from Boston and posting a forgettable .259-48-6-47-10 line. He was limited to 95 games due to a concussion, similar to Justin Morneau, who also coincidentally hails from Canada.  When he did play, he was mediocre at best, the only saving grace was the double-digit stolen bases.
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That doesn’t mean he’s a lost cause. David Wright struggled with the long ball in his first season in CitiPark, but rebounded nicely last year. Perhaps he just has to attack the park differently.  Prior to last year Bay averaged 100.6 runs, 31 HRs, 102.8 RBI, and 11.8 SBs in the five previous seasons so I’m hopeful for a rebound. His ADP, according to Mock Draft Central, is 142 overall and 37th outfielder. He’s a pretty solid option in the 12th round of fantasy drafts.
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Beltran is less of a risk based on his ADP of 223 (51st outfielder), but his knees have cost him the better part of two seasons. He hasn’t had fantasy relevance since 2008. Last year Beltran posted a .255-21-7-27-3 line in 64 games. He did end the year on a high note going 25 for 78 (.321) with 12 runs, five HRs, 13 RBI, and two SBs in 78 September at bats. His OPS of .968 was particularly encouraging.
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If he can stay healthy, the power and the average could return. I’m not confident that a player with bad knees that’s turning 34 in April will terrorize the basepaths again, but if he can manage 8-10, that would be a nice contribution. His ADP puts him in the 19th round. I say why the heck not take a shot on him there.
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I wouldn’t bet the farm that one or both of these former five-tool outfielders returns to form, but I would definitely say they are worth the risk. I realize that Bay could be out for a long time if he suffers another concussion and Beltran’s knees are a risk, but they are calculated risks and worth the gamble.
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What are your thoughts on Bay and Beltran?
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