2011 Fantasy Baseball Profile: Will Justin Masterson Emerge?

Feb 7, 2011


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Justin Masterson went 6-13 with a 4.70 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and 140 strikeouts in 180 innings pitched. The main culprits for his struggles were control, as he walked 3.65 batters per nine innings, his inability to get lefties out, and inconsistency.
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They hit .290 against him with ten HRs and a .784 OPS in 389 at bats. Righties hit .263 with four HRs and a .681 OPS in 320 at bats. He had nearly twice as many walks against lefties (46) as righties (27).
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He also struggled away from Jacobs Field, where he went 3-5 with a 3.28 ERA and a .239 BAA. On the road Masterson was 3-8 with a 6.23 ERA and a .317 BAA.
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He had seven or more strikeouts in four of his first ten starts, but just three the rest of the season. In fact, he had 54 strikeouts in 53-2/3 innings in those ten starts. However, he went 0-5 with a 5.87 ERA.
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He had just 86 strikeouts in his final 126-1/3 innings, but had much better results. He went 6-8 with a 4.92 ERA after May. Those aren’t great numbers, but he hit another rough patch in July going 1-3 with a 6.32 ERA and a .314 BAA.
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If he can pitch like he did in June (2-2, 4.13 ERA, .235 BAA), August (2-2, 3.28 ERA, .235 BAA), and September (1-1, 2.25 ERA, .236 BAA), you’re looking at an exceptional fantasy value.
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He’s bound to go through his struggles. Most pitchers do. He just needs to cut down on his walks, and he should be fine. He’s not much of a risk. My only concern is if he struggles early, he could go back to the bullpen, where he was effective last year. He’s a big kid (6’6″, 250) with a live arm and a ton of potential. Keep him in mind at the end of your fantasy drafts.
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2 Responses so far | Have Your Say!

  1. david schau
    February 8th, 2011 at 12:41 pm #

    Have seen him establish a rhythm and was virtually unhittable. Gets a few guys on base, slows down and becomes less effective. Better control, better defense could mean a more effective pitcher

  2. LestersLegends
    February 8th, 2011 at 12:45 pm #

    You’re right. In the end, control is really the key to his success. If he has it, he could be solid. If not, he likely earns a trip to the bullpen.

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