2011 Fantasy Baseball: Value Win Options

Mar 21, 2011


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Not everybody can land Doc Halladay or Jon Lester. Wins are hard to predict, just ask Felix Hernandez, but here are some value guys that in theory should help bolster your win total. All average draft positions are from Mock Draft Central.
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Phil Hughes, New York Yankees:  You know the Yankees are going to win games. Hughes has the talent to pick up a bunch of those victories. Though he slowed in the second half of last year, he finished with 18 wins. His ERA and WHIP should be solid enough, along with a fair amount of strikeouts, to make him a deal at his ADP of 154. Even with his disastrous 2008 season when he posted a 1.71 WHIP, Hughes has a lifetime WHIP of 1.27.
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Carl Pavano, Minnesota Twins:  Every year A.L. Central teams seem to load up to take down the Twins. Yet, almost every year the Twins raise another A.L. Central banner. Pavano has averaged 15.5 wins the past two years, including a solid 17-11 last year for the Twins. He once was a running joke for being injury prone, but has tossed 420-1/3 innings over the past two years. With an ADP of 295, you can hardly pass up the 14+ win potential.
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Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves:  Hudson has an ADP of 151, so he’s a borderline value. Considering his ability to win at a high clip (lifetime .655 winning percentage) with a low ERA and WHIP (lifetime 3.42 and 1.25 respectively) I think he achieves value status.
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Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds:  Arroyo won 17 games last year giving him three straight seasons with at least 15 wins. His ERA has been south of 4.00 the past two years making Arroyo a strong value with his ADP of 323.
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Derek Lowe, Atlanta Braves: At some point Lowe will crap out or hang up his cleats, but until then he remains a solid pitching option. He has recorded at least 12 wins the past nine years, and has averaged 15 over the past three. His ERA and WHIP, aside from running high in 2009, have been solid since 2005. He’s just a nice veteran option to fill out your staff. His ADP is 331 so he’s not much of a risk if he struggles.
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Ervin Santana, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim:  Santana shook off the rust to win 17 games after dealing with elbow issues in 2009. He literally alternated good and bad months last year, but finished with a sub-4.00 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He also recored 169 strikeouts making him a solid value with an ADP of 211.
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Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets:  Pelfrey won 15 games last year, and averaged 12.7 over the past three years. He was 10-3 at home with a 2.83 ERA making him a nice option to use when the matchups are right. His ADP is 265.
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Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox:  2010 was a lost year for Beckett, but if he’s healthy he can be a dominant pitcher. His ADP of 176 makes him a great value pick.
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