2011 Season in Review: The Disappointment Roster of 2011
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By Dan Rauer (http://dansotherworld.
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Not every place on your team’s roster is inhabited by players playing up to or beyond their perceived talent or capabilities. Sometimes you are stuck with a player whose best time has passed or has a nagging injury affecting stats or simply falls off a cliff. The question that comes with these players is “why?”. Were there warning signs from previous performance? Does he have a certain profile to other historical players that have shown similar career trends? Or did you just guess wrong and get the worst year of his career?
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As with most prisms of reflection in the fantasy baseball evaluation pool, there is always an element of luck involved. The skill is recognizing the decline before it’s too late and exchanging the name for some value. That, of course, is another story.
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Here are the picks for those who did not meet expectations in 2011 relative to draft position and ranking. I only surveyed the top 10 players at infield positions, the top 25 outfielders, and the top 30 starting pitchers because these would presumably be the core of most teams when they were drafted.
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(Players presented as name-position-team-age-Yahoo! pre-season rank at the position )
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Category A: Disappointments That Were Difficult to Predict or Avoid
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Hanley Ramirez-SS-Florida-27-1: The consensus #2 pick in the majority of drafts was probably the biggest disappointment in 2011. Unfortunately, there was almost nothing to suggest a decline at all. He had a career low OPS by 140 points. There had to have something been going on before his injury.
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Shin Soo-Choo-OF-Cleveland-28-8: A two-time reigning 20-20 OF with an OBP hovering around .400 over the last three seasons, his lack of production when healthy was puzzling. His basic profile didn’t change drastically, though his infield fly rate increased by 4% from 2010. Injuries also depressed his overall numbers.
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Andre Ethier-OF-Los Angeles-29-14: Ethier was a never a great player, but he was a reliably consistent player over the past three seasons before 2011 (OPS range .857-.889 with decent run production). His power disappeared and so did his value.
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Category B: Disappointments Because Expectations and Draft Slot Wildly Exceeded Possible Real Output
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Carl Crawford-OF-Boston-29-3: Everything that could go wrong for Crawford did. I did not expect this terrible performance, but 1st round value for someone at the edge of his prime whose principal value is only tied to SB is too much. Also, changing teams sometimes can be a real detriment to even talented players (see Werth, Jayson for another example from this year.
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Francisco Liriano-SP-Minnesota-27-19: There was no doubt that 2010 was a stellar year for Liriano (9.4 K/9), but in the new era we are in (remember how 2010 was “The Year of the Pitcher”), he was drafted above more reliable and better starters such as Dan Haren, Matt Cain, and Chris Carpenter. His 1.26 WHIP in 2010 even with the great other stats was not elite. His collapse though was because he lost his command.
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David Wright-3B-New York-28-2: The David Wright of 2008 is probably not returning. Third base was a position of scarcity in 2011, but Wright was drafted on average 13th overall. His career low OPS didn’t help matters, but at least stole bases at a good clip. He now strikes out greater than 20% of the time and hits for less power than his 2006-2008 peak. He may be young, but his batting profile has changed, changing his value.
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Category C: Disappointments Because There Were Signs There Was Little Probability of Matching His Draft Value
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Joe Mauer-C-Minnesota-28-1: As a catcher, Mauer’s margin for error is very small because he usually would only start 120-130 games per season even when fully healthy. At that draft position, he would have to approach his 2009 season (his only season over 20 HR) in power output. This is not what he has shown as a player the rest of his career. Unfortunately, the injuries hampered his season’s stats even further.
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Ubaldo Jimenez-SP-Colorado-27-9: Jimenez was probably the best pitcher in baseball the first half of 2010. In the 2nd half, his effectiveness decreased greatly in terms of run prevention and base runners allowed. Drafting him as the 9th ranked pitcher (48th overall) was a risk because of his home ballpark, 2nd half regression, and the rumors of an underlying injury.
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There are plenty others who did meet expectations this year, and here is the name that should be in all of them (Adam Dunn) just so it can be said I didn;t forget him. Looking forward to 2012, there’s only so much you can predict, but try to not draft players they were of the past, but how they project for the season. One always need some luck to stumble on at least a few disappointments.
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