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Maybe has-been is too strong of a word for Berkman, but his HR total has dipped three straight years, and his numbers took a pretty sharp decline last year thanks to injuries. He’s no longer considered a second round pick. Even the third round seems premature for my 11th ranked first basemen (click to see rankings).

His 2009 dip is actually not that uncommon for Berkman. His even year/odd year splits since 2002 are staggering.

Even year averages:  .309, 104.8 runs, 36.5 HRs, 119 RBIs, 9.5 SBs
Odd year aveages:  ..283, 88.5 runs, 27 HRs, 89.3 RBIs, 5.8 SBs

If his eight-year trend were to continue, his fantasy owners would be in store for a big payday. For a guy that turns 34 tomorrow (happy early birthday Lance), I don’t quite see that happening. At his age, injuries are more likely to pop up, and you’re more likely to take longer to recover from them, especially as the season wears on. 

The good news if you’re trying to draft him, he’s historically does the bulk of his damage in the first half of the season. His  OPS (.994 compared to .937) is significantly better before the All-Star game. His AB/HR ratio is 15.3 before the break and 18.9 after it. He also has 0.76 RBIs per game before the break and 0.63 after it.  The past two years, in particular, he had 40 HRs before the break and 14 after it.

My suggestion if you take Berkman in your draft is to try to move him in July or early August. Get good value as you head down the home stretch.

Prediction:  .300, 90 runs, 30 HRs, 90 RBIs, 4 SBs

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox:  Jake Peavy
Cincinnati Reds:  Joey Votto
Cleveland Indians:  Grady Sizemore
Colorado Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez
Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera
Florida Marlins: Cameron Maybin

Here’s my second look at the fantasy first basemen rankings.

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1.  Albert Pujols:  My thoughts haven’t wavered on Pujols as the #1 first baseman. Nobody’s have.

2.  Ryan Howard:  I bumped him up a spot. His average isn’t going to kill you, but you simply can’t ignore the HRs and RBIs he brings to the table. Sure, Prince Fielder was toe-to-toe with him last year, and Tex and Miggy have the potential, but Howard has been doing it for four straight years.
(2006-2009):  .278, 102 runs, 49.5 HRs, 143 RBIs, 2.5 SBs

3. Mark Teixeira:  I rank Tex at three simply because of the ballpark and lineup he’s in.

4.  Miguel Cabrera:  I went into further detail with Cabrera (click to see article) to justify the #4 ranking. I think his average is more likely to be a competitive edge over Prince Fielder, than Fielder’s HRs and RBIs over Cabrera.

5.  Prince Fielder:  His #5 ranking is merely a reflection as to how deep the position is.

6.  Victor Martinez:  Technically a catcher, V-Mart has first base eligibility. That dramatically adds to his value.

7.  Kevin Youkilis: Same goes for Youk, but replace catcher with third base.

8.  Adrian Gonzalez:  Quietly, steadily a nice source of HRs and RBIs.

9.  Justin Morneau:  I bumped him down a few notches mainly because of his injury history and the uncertainty of Target Field. Weather could play a key role in the opening and closing months of his season.

10.  Joey Votto:  Another player we profiled (click here for the article). Potential for a .310 average with 25-30 HRs and 100-110 RBIs. Read the rest of this entry »

Fantasy Pros 911 is doing a series on Facebook where they ask a question on their discussion board. Then they invite group members to weigh in.

The question at hand is “Which Pitcher do you see making the most starts in 2010″?

1) Chris Carpenter

2) Brandon Webb

3) Johan Santana

4) Franciso Liriano

My response:  I would have to go Johan Santana. He shut it down last year with an elbow injury, but it wasn’t one that involved more than a mere scope. While I don’t like my pitcher to go under the knife in the offseason, he had a much milder injury Brandon Webb.

Before being limited to 25 starts last year, Johan averaged 33.6 starts his previous five seasons. Chris Carpenter has made just 32 combined starts his previous three seasons. Plus, he’ll turn 35 early into the 2010 season.

I question Francisco Liriano staying in the bigs because of effectiveness about as much as I have any injury concerns. The slider that made him untouchable isn’t there any more. Neither is his control. He hasn’t make the necessary adjustments.

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Cameron Maybin was on the short list of potential 2009 NL Rookies of the Year. In retrospect, that was a pretty silly prediction given his track record. He hadn’t played Triple-A ball prior to last year, and he had mixed results in for Double-A Carolina in 2008.

He had impressive numbers like 73 runs, 8 triples, 13 HRs, and 21 SBs in 390 ABs. He did, however, hit just .277, which is fine by big league standards, but far from elite in Double-A ball. Even worse were the 124 strikeouts. He struck out once every 3.1 at bats. For a player with his gift of speed, not putting the ball in play is a crime.

He was sent down to Triple-A New Orleans where he hit .319, but wasn’t the force he was in Double-A with just 44 runs, 3 HRs, and 8 SBs in 298 ABs. He did, however, manage to cut his strikeout total down to 58, or once every 5.1 at bats.

He was able to translate those numbers to the majors when he received his September call-up from the Marlins. He hit .293 with 19 runs, 3 HRs, and 10 RBIs in 92 at bats. Even more importantly he struck out just 20 times, or once every 4.6 at bats.

Prediction:  .265, 70 runs, 10 HRs, 40 RBIs, 20 SBs

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox:  Jake Peavy
Cincinnati Reds:  Joey Votto
Cleveland Indians:  Grady Sizemore
Colorado Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez
Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera

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Miguel Cabrera’s 2009 season with the Tigers couldn’t have ended on a more sour note. He spent three months getting help with an alcohol addition. Assuming his life is in order, he’ll resume doing what he’s been doing for year now…clobbering opposing pitchers.

The past six years he’s averaged 98.5 runs, 32.8 HRs, and 115.2 RBIs, all while hitting a robust .315. The scary thing is the fact that he’s only 27 (on April 18th anyway).

The question is, where do you rank him among his peers.

Obviously Albert Pujols is in a league of his own. He is without peers. He’s clearly the number one overall player, let alone first basemen.

In my estimation, Miguel Cabrera is in tier 1-A with three other first basemen. Those 1Bs, in no particular order, are Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, and Prince Fielder. You can’t really go wrong with them, it’s just a matter of preference.  Let’s break down their recent averages.

Cabrera (2004-2009):  .315, 98.5 runs, 32.8 HRs, 115.2 RBIs, 4 SBs
Howard (2006-2009):  .278, 102 runs, 49.5 HRs, 143 RBIs, 2.5 SBs
Teixeira (2004-2009):  .295, 100.8 runs, 36 HRs, 119 RBIs, 2.3 SBs
Fielder (2007-2009):  .288, 99.3 runs, 43.3 HRs,  121.3 RBIs, 2.3 SBs

Looking at these players and you can quickly eliminate runs and SBs from the equation as they are practically the same number for each performer. Two numbers stand out from the crowd. Miguel Cabrera’s batting average and Ryan Howard’s RBI total.

I know Ryan Howard’s 2008 average (.251) and his first-half 2009 average (.257) were tough on fantasy owners, but overall they don’t kill you. In fact, when I adjust my initial first base rankings (click to see), I think I’m going to have to put Howard at #2. I know he strikes out a ton, but the number of HRs and RBIs he brings to the table is just too valuable.

So that leaves us with Tex, Prince, and Cabrera. There isn’t much of a difference between Teixeira and Cabrera’s numbers since 2004. I give Tex a slight bump simply because of the lineup his in and the ballpark they play in.

That brings us to Prince and Cabrera. Fielder is obviously a bigger power threat. Cabrera has the ability to hit 30 or 40 points higher than Prince. Fielder’s RBI totals are higher, but they are skewed by the 141 he had last year. Cabrera’s were skewed in the wrong direction with the 103 he had last year.

Like I said, it’s a matter of preference between these guys. I happen to like what Cabrera brings to the table a little more. That doesn’t mean I think you’re wrong if you like Prince better.

Prediction:  .335, 100 runs, 35 HRs, 120 RBIs

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox:  Jake Peavy
Cincinnati Reds:  Joey Votto
Cleveland Indians:  Grady Sizemore
Colorado Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez

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Grady Sizemore is a coveted fantasy player because of his ability to score runs, hit HRs, and steal bases. He battled through a hernia and an elbow injury last year, but still managed to put up a respectable 73 runs, 18 HRs, and 13 SBs in 103 games.

Even with his shortened season he’s averaging 107 runs, 25 HRs, 78 RBIs, and 26 SBs over the past five years. He’s struggled at the plate the past two seasons, but his average over that five-year stretch is .276. Not great, but not terrible either. Not when you consider what else he brings to the table.

I know the Indians’ lineup isn’t what it used to be, but they have some good young talent in Shin-Soo Choo, Matt LaPorta, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Michael Brantley to go along with veterans Jhonny Peralta and Travis Hafner.

The question is, where do you take Sizemore in fantasy drafts? He’s clearly not a first rounder any more. Not coming off an injury, even if he did shut it down early. I wouldn’t hesitate to grab him towards the end of the second round. I have him as my 4th ranked outfielder (click to see rankings), and I like the advantage he gives you in runs and SBs while chipping in with a respectable amount of HRs. All of this is dependent upon his health, but I’m not overly concerned with it. From 2005-2008 he missed just nine games.

Prediction:  .275, 110 runs, 28 HRs, 80 RBIs, 35 SBs

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox:  Jake Peavy
Cincinnati Reds:  Joey Votto

Joey Votto is really a hot button player this year. Some really love him, while others want no parts of him. I think I’m somewhere in the middle. 

I understand the concern since Votto ’s career highs in runs (82), HRs (25), and RBIs (84) by no means scream fantasy starting first basemen. I can’t fault you if his mysterious absence last year has you concerned. Nor can I fault you if you think he’s overvalued given an ADP that puts him in the early third round. Personally I have him as my 9th ranked 1B (click to see the rankings).

Putting all of that aside, I love his potential. He’s a career .310 hitter with a .924 OPS. While he’s not a prototypical power hitter, he has hit 49 the past two years with 70 doubles. The addition of Orlando Cabrera should lead to more RBI opportunities. 

While he plays in a hitter’s park, he is equally as effective on the road.

Home:  528 AB, 86 R, 160 H, 31 2B, 3 3B, 32 HR, 99 RBI, .303 BA, .939 OPS
Away:  551 AB, 76 R, 174 H, 46 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 86 RBI, .316 BA, .909 OPS

He has picked apart his division to the tune of .317 with 32 HRs and 99 RBIs in 156 games.

Votto will turn 27 in September and is in his third full year in the bigs. If anyone has breakout written all over them, it’s Votto. That doesn’t mean I think you should take him early in the third round, but I would have no problem if he slipped to the 4th, even if I had him penciled in for my IF slot.

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox:  Jake Peavy

Jake Peavy threw 20 brilliant innings for the White Sox last year going 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, a .162 BAA, and 18 Ks. Obviously that’s not a pace he can keep in a full season with the White Sox, but he should still be one of the better #2 fantasy pitchers out there (click here for starting pitcher rankings).

Leaving PETCO Park and the National League isn’t ideal for Peavy, but he’ll adjust. Talented pitching generally holds up regardless of where you pitch. Take C.C. Sabathia for example. He had no problem delivering for the Yankees last year. Same with Cliff Lee in Philly.

Peavy is a 95-68 (.586) pitcher with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a .231 BAA. His K/9 ratio is 9.02. While he’s been dominant at home, he hasn’t been terrible on the road.

Home: 740.3 IP, 47-31, 2.82 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .219 BAA, 792 K
Away: 622.3 IP, 48-37, 3.79 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, .244 BAA, 574 K

His primary opponents (Twins, Tigers, Indians, Royals) aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts. Peavy may not put up the numbers of yesteryear, but he won’t be going as early in drafts, which should offset things. I’d be more than happy with him as a #2 fantasy pitcher.

Prediction: 15-8, 3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 175 Ks

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto

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Geovany Soto was a draft day darling last year. What’s not to love about a player who tore up the Pacific Coast League in 2007 to the tune of .353, 26 HRs, and 109 RBIs in 385 ABs? Especially when he hit .389 with 12 runs, 3 HRs, and 8 RBIs upon being called up. Then in his first full year with the Cubs he takes home Rookie of the Year honors by hitting .285 with 23 HRs and 86 RBIs.

After posting a .218, 11 HR, 47 RBI line in 2009, Soto’s draft stock took a major hit, and that’s just where I want him. He struggled last year, but is an amazing talent. There aren’t many catchers that have the potential for as many HRs and RBIs as Soto. Injuries contributed to his struggles, but his weight became an issue as well.

According to a MLB.com report (click for article)  he lost 40 pounds.In a demanding position, his new frame should keep him spry. Time will tell if the change in body type will impact his power, but he should be more productive at and behind the plate.

He’s not in the conversation with Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, or Brian McCann, but he should be a high-end fantasy catcher in 2010 (click here for catcher rankings).

Prediction: .295, 68 runs, 20 HRs, 85 RBIs

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz

While Joe Mauer was supposedly set to sign a ten-year deal with the Twins according to WCCO, it appears the announcement was premature. There were, however, some other moves that were on a much smaller scale.

Melvin Mora inked a deal with the Colorado Rockies. He will serve as a utility player as he can play virtually every position. He will turn 38 on Sunday, and his fantasy value has probably dried up, as evidenced by his .260, 44 R, 8 HR, 48 RBI 2009 numbers. 

Kevin Millar, who’s also 38, will try his luck with the Cubs. Millar managed to hit just .223 with 7 HRs and 29 RBIs for the Blue Jays last year. He too has little to no fantasy value, and little may have skipped town.

The Reds bolstered their infielde by signing free agent SS Orlando Cabrera and trading for Aaron Miles. Cabrera will start for the Reds and likely hit in the two-hole. He had a solid year split between the A’s and the Twins hitting .284 with 83 runs, 9 HRs, and 77 RBIs. He has a good chance of replicating those numbers in Cincinnati. Miles will serve as a backup infielder and has little fantasy value.

Ryan Garko signed with Seattle. He’ll be used primarily as a bat off the bench to face lefties. He could also play some first, DH, and even have spot duty at catcher. He too has little fantasy value.