This week’s topic:
If one were to prorate Jamaal Charles’ final eight games of 2009 to a full season, he’d handily outscore Adrian Peterson and betters all RB’s not named Chris Johnson in PPR formats. What are your expectations for Charles in 2010?

Click here for the full article.

My response:
I began calling him Chris Johnson Lite at the end of the year because of his ability to rip off a long run or two seemingly every game. He posted a phenomenal 5.9 yards per carry, and had 1131 total yards with 8 TDs in the last eight weeks. That’s 141.4 yards and a score per game for half a year.

His beastly numbers impressed me enough to have him as my 11th rated RB heading into next year. While I can’t dismiss his numbers, I do get that Steve Slaton type vibe from Charles. I just don’t know if there’s an encore.

Kansas City has just about nothing going for them on offense outside of Charles. My guess is he’ll face a lot more eight and nine man fronts. Teams will dare the Chiefs to beat them with the run. I just don’t know that he can stand up to that sort of defensive pressure.

Jamaal Charles is the type of player that I will most likely not own in 2010. I can’t imagine a league with an owner that doesn’t hold him in higher regard than I do, and I’m OK with that.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Maybe has-been is too strong of a word for Berkman, but his HR total has dipped three straight years, and his numbers took a pretty sharp decline last year thanks to injuries. He’s no longer considered a second round pick. Even the third round seems premature for my 11th ranked first basemen (click to see rankings).

His 2009 dip is actually not that uncommon for Berkman. His even year/odd year splits since 2002 are staggering.

Even year averages:  .309, 104.8 runs, 36.5 HRs, 119 RBIs, 9.5 SBs
Odd year aveages:  ..283, 88.5 runs, 27 HRs, 89.3 RBIs, 5.8 SBs

If his eight-year trend were to continue, his fantasy owners would be in store for a big payday. For a guy that turns 34 tomorrow (happy early birthday Lance), I don’t quite see that happening. At his age, injuries are more likely to pop up, and you’re more likely to take longer to recover from them, especially as the season wears on. 

The good news if you’re trying to draft him, he’s historically does the bulk of his damage in the first half of the season. His  OPS (.994 compared to .937) is significantly better before the All-Star game. His AB/HR ratio is 15.3 before the break and 18.9 after it. He also has 0.76 RBIs per game before the break and 0.63 after it.  The past two years, in particular, he had 40 HRs before the break and 14 after it.

My suggestion if you take Berkman in your draft is to try to move him in July or early August. Get good value as you head down the home stretch.

Prediction:  .300, 90 runs, 30 HRs, 90 RBIs, 4 SBs

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox:  Jake Peavy
Cincinnati Reds:  Joey Votto
Cleveland Indians:  Grady Sizemore
Colorado Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez
Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera
Florida Marlins: Cameron Maybin

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

1.  Albert Pujols:  My thoughts haven’t wavered on Pujols as the #1 first baseman. Nobody’s have.

2.  Ryan Howard:  I bumped him up a spot. His average isn’t going to kill you, but you simply can’t ignore the HRs and RBIs he brings to the table. Sure, Prince Fielder was toe-to-toe with him last year, and Tex and Miggy have the potential, but Howard has been doing it for four straight years.
(2006-2009):  .278, 102 runs, 49.5 HRs, 143 RBIs, 2.5 SBs

3. Mark Teixeira:  I rank Tex at three simply because of the ballpark and lineup he’s in.

4.  Miguel Cabrera:  I went into further detail with Cabrera (click to see article) to justify the #4 ranking. I think his average is more likely to be a competitive edge over Prince Fielder, than Fielder’s HRs and RBIs over Cabrera.

5.  Prince Fielder:  His #5 ranking is merely a reflection as to how deep the position is.

6.  Victor Martinez:  Technically a catcher, V-Mart has first base eligibility. That dramatically adds to his value.

7.  Kevin Youkilis: Same goes for Youk, but replace catcher with third base.

8.  Adrian Gonzalez:  Quietly, steadily a nice source of HRs and RBIs.

9.  Justin Morneau:  I bumped him down a few notches mainly because of his injury history and the uncertainty of Target Field. Weather could play a key role in the opening and closing months of his season.

10.  Joey Votto:  Another player we profiled (click here for the article). Potential for a .310 average with 25-30 HRs and 100-110 RBIs.

11.  Mark Reynolds:  Reynolds has more value as a third basemen, but his speed and power combo makes him a #1 fantasy first basemen as well.

12.  Kendry Morales:  I’m concerned with the departure of Vladimir Guerrero even though they brought in Hideki Matsui. I’d still use him as a low-end fantasy 1B starter.

13.  Billy Butler:  Butler moved up on the list after looking deeper at his numbers. He figured out to hit righties last year, which should make his value soar.

14.  Pablo Sandoval:  Another third basemen with first basemen eligibility. I question the power, but the average should be there.

15.  Lance Berkman: He has dominated in his last four “even” years. I don’t see quite the output this year, but he’s still a nice CI/Util option.

16.  Adam Dunn:  You can just about pencil Dunn in for 40 HRs and 100 RBIs. You’ll have to live with the average.

17.  Carlos Pena:  Same deal as Dunn, only a worse average and fewer HRs.

18.  Derrek Lee:   I don’t believe in his 2009 power numbers (35 HRs, 111 RBIs, .972 OPS), but I do like him as a CI/Util/backup 1B.

19.  Adam LaRoche:  He’s averaged 24.6 HRs and 84.8 RBIs the past five years. With Arizona, He has a chance to take a step forward.

20.  Michael Cuddyer:  Cuddy played well filling in for Morneau last year, and made him more valuable this year with his 1B eligibility.  He’ll give you a decent amount of runs, HRs, and RBIs.

Click to see the rest of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.

The question at hand is “Which Pitcher do you see making the most starts in 2010″?

1) Chris Carpenter

2) Brandon Webb

3) Johan Santana

4) Franciso Liriano

My response:  I would have to go Johan Santana. He shut it down last year with an elbow injury, but it wasn’t one that involved more than a mere scope. While I don’t like my pitcher to go under the knife in the offseason, he had a much milder injury Brandon Webb.

Before being limited to 25 starts last year, Johan averaged 33.6 starts his previous five seasons. Chris Carpenter has made just 32 combined starts his previous three seasons. Plus, he’ll turn 35 early into the 2010 season.

I question Francisco Liriano staying in the bigs because of effectiveness about as much as I have any injury concerns. The slider that made him untouchable isn’t there any more. Neither is his control. He hasn’t make the necessary adjustments.

Super Bowl XLIV Results:  0-1
My Son’s Results:  0-1

Regular Season Lock Picks:  31-3 (.912)
Regular Season Total:  177-79 (.691)
Playoff Picks:  4-7
Pro Bowl Pick:  1-0
Overall Total:  182-86 (.679)

My son’s Playoff Picks:  5-2
My son’s Pro Bowl Pick:  1-0
My son’s Overall Total:  6-2

These are heads-up picks. The Yahoo ATS challenge wrapped up. I finished tied for third at 134-119-3 (.529). If you want to take part in the challenge next year, leave me a message in the comment with your e-mail or send one to me at contact@lesterslegends.com.

Time for the final results of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.

Scoring

6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Peyton Manning over Drew Brees +2:  Loser Manning 20.65, Brees 24.3 (22.3 actual +2)
Donald Brown over Reggie Bush:  Loser Brown 2.9, Bush 6.3
Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon over Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Jeremy Shockey, and David Thomas
Winner
Indy Triplets:  23.8
Colston, Henerson, Meachem, Shockey, Thomas: 23.4
Super Bowl Picks:  1-2

Season Record
Regular Picks: 41-40-1
Super Stretch Picks:  8-12
Playoffs Picks:  7-7
Pro Bowl Picks:  0-3
Overall: 56-62-1

Ryan Gomes, SF/PF, Minnesota Timberwolves
Gomes averaged 19.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steal, and 3.5 three-pointers last week. He shot 60.9 percent from the floor and 75.0 percent from the line. Gomes has scored in double-figures in his last six games. He’s owned in 29.0 percent of Yahoo! and 3.3 percent of ESPN leagues.

Corey Brewer, SG/SF, Minnesota Timberwolves
Brewer also played well for the Wolves. He’s actually a preferred choice over Gomes. Last week Brewer averaged 15.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.5 steals, and 2.0 three-pointers. He shot 44.4 percent from the field without missing a free throw. Corey is owned in 55.0 percent of Yahoo! and 30.3 percent of ESPN leagues.

George Hill, PG/SG, San Antonio Spurs
Hill has continued to play well even after Tony Parker’s return. Last week he averaged 20.3 points, 2.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 0.7 steals, and 1.7 three-pointers. He shot 53.8 percent from the floor and 77.8 percent from the line. Hill is owned in 33.0 percent of Yahoo! and  10.3 percent of ESPN leagues.

Robin Lopez, PF/C, Phoenix Suns
Lopez averaged 13.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks while shooting 56.7 percent of his shot. He hit all of his free throws. Lopez’s numbers could rise if/when Amar’e Stoudemire gets dealt. Robin is owned in 41.0 percent of Yahoo! and 8.5 percent of ESPN leagues.