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Maybe has-been is too strong of a word for Berkman, but his HR total has dipped three straight years, and his numbers took a pretty sharp decline last year thanks to injuries. He’s no longer considered a second round pick. Even the third round seems premature for my 11th ranked first basemen (click to see rankings).

His 2009 dip is actually not that uncommon for Berkman. His even year/odd year splits since 2002 are staggering.

Even year averages:  .309, 104.8 runs, 36.5 HRs, 119 RBIs, 9.5 SBs
Odd year aveages:  ..283, 88.5 runs, 27 HRs, 89.3 RBIs, 5.8 SBs

If his eight-year trend were to continue, his fantasy owners would be in store for a big payday. For a guy that turns 34 tomorrow (happy early birthday Lance), I don’t quite see that happening. At his age, injuries are more likely to pop up, and you’re more likely to take longer to recover from them, especially as the season wears on. 

The good news if you’re trying to draft him, he’s historically does the bulk of his damage in the first half of the season. His  OPS (.994 compared to .937) is significantly better before the All-Star game. His AB/HR ratio is 15.3 before the break and 18.9 after it. He also has 0.76 RBIs per game before the break and 0.63 after it.  The past two years, in particular, he had 40 HRs before the break and 14 after it.

My suggestion if you take Berkman in your draft is to try to move him in July or early August. Get good value as you head down the home stretch.

Prediction:  .300, 90 runs, 30 HRs, 90 RBIs, 4 SBs

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox:  Jake Peavy
Cincinnati Reds:  Joey Votto
Cleveland Indians:  Grady Sizemore
Colorado Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez
Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera
Florida Marlins: Cameron Maybin

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Cameron Maybin was on the short list of potential 2009 NL Rookies of the Year. In retrospect, that was a pretty silly prediction given his track record. He hadn’t played Triple-A ball prior to last year, and he had mixed results in for Double-A Carolina in 2008.

He had impressive numbers like 73 runs, 8 triples, 13 HRs, and 21 SBs in 390 ABs. He did, however, hit just .277, which is fine by big league standards, but far from elite in Double-A ball. Even worse were the 124 strikeouts. He struck out once every 3.1 at bats. For a player with his gift of speed, not putting the ball in play is a crime.

He was sent down to Triple-A New Orleans where he hit .319, but wasn’t the force he was in Double-A with just 44 runs, 3 HRs, and 8 SBs in 298 ABs. He did, however, manage to cut his strikeout total down to 58, or once every 5.1 at bats.

He was able to translate those numbers to the majors when he received his September call-up from the Marlins. He hit .293 with 19 runs, 3 HRs, and 10 RBIs in 92 at bats. Even more importantly he struck out just 20 times, or once every 4.6 at bats.

Prediction:  .265, 70 runs, 10 HRs, 40 RBIs, 20 SBs

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox:  Jake Peavy
Cincinnati Reds:  Joey Votto
Cleveland Indians:  Grady Sizemore
Colorado Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez
Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera

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Miguel Cabrera’s 2009 season with the Tigers couldn’t have ended on a more sour note. He spent three months getting help with an alcohol addition. Assuming his life is in order, he’ll resume doing what he’s been doing for year now…clobbering opposing pitchers.

The past six years he’s averaged 98.5 runs, 32.8 HRs, and 115.2 RBIs, all while hitting a robust .315. The scary thing is the fact that he’s only 27 (on April 18th anyway).

The question is, where do you rank him among his peers.

Obviously Albert Pujols is in a league of his own. He is without peers. He’s clearly the number one overall player, let alone first basemen.

In my estimation, Miguel Cabrera is in tier 1-A with three other first basemen. Those 1Bs, in no particular order, are Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, and Prince Fielder. You can’t really go wrong with them, it’s just a matter of preference.  Let’s break down their recent averages.

Cabrera (2004-2009):  .315, 98.5 runs, 32.8 HRs, 115.2 RBIs, 4 SBs
Howard (2006-2009):  .278, 102 runs, 49.5 HRs, 143 RBIs, 2.5 SBs
Teixeira (2004-2009):  .295, 100.8 runs, 36 HRs, 119 RBIs, 2.3 SBs
Fielder (2007-2009):  .288, 99.3 runs, 43.3 HRs,  121.3 RBIs, 2.3 SBs

Looking at these players and you can quickly eliminate runs and SBs from the equation as they are practically the same number for each performer. Two numbers stand out from the crowd. Miguel Cabrera’s batting average and Ryan Howard’s RBI total.

I know Ryan Howard’s 2008 average (.251) and his first-half 2009 average (.257) were tough on fantasy owners, but overall they don’t kill you. In fact, when I adjust my initial first base rankings (click to see), I think I’m going to have to put Howard at #2. I know he strikes out a ton, but the number of HRs and RBIs he brings to the table is just too valuable.

So that leaves us with Tex, Prince, and Cabrera. There isn’t much of a difference between Teixeira and Cabrera’s numbers since 2004. I give Tex a slight bump simply because of the lineup his in and the ballpark they play in.

That brings us to Prince and Cabrera. Fielder is obviously a bigger power threat. Cabrera has the ability to hit 30 or 40 points higher than Prince. Fielder’s RBI totals are higher, but they are skewed by the 141 he had last year. Cabrera’s were skewed in the wrong direction with the 103 he had last year.

Like I said, it’s a matter of preference between these guys. I happen to like what Cabrera brings to the table a little more. That doesn’t mean I think you’re wrong if you like Prince better.

Prediction:  .335, 100 runs, 35 HRs, 120 RBIs

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox:  Jake Peavy
Cincinnati Reds:  Joey Votto
Cleveland Indians:  Grady Sizemore
Colorado Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez

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Ubaldo Jimenez has disproved the notion that the Colorado Rockies can’t have an ace pitcher. Instead of paying to bring in a big name free agent pitcher, they groomed one in Jimenez. He was solid in 2008 and saw across the board improvement in 2009.

2008: 12-12, 3.99 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, .245 BAA, 172 K, 103 BB
2009: 15-12, 3.47 ERA, 1.23 WHIP .229 BAA, 198 K, 85 BB

The key to his success is his ability to produce ground balls. That’s almost a requirement in Coors Field. You keep the ball down, you keep it in the ballpark. He also did a good job of limiting free passes. He went from 4.67 BB/9 in 2008 to 3.51 in 2009. Couple that with an increase in K/9 from 7.8 to 8.2 and you can see why he was successful last year.

He was also very consistent last year.

Home: 102.3 IP, 8-5, 3.34 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .234 BAA, 86 K, 40 BB
Away: 115.7 IP, 7-7, 3.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .225 BAA, 112 K, 45 BB

And a force down the stretch.

First Half: 115.7 IP, 6-9, 3.81 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, .247 BAA 101 K, 46 BB
Second Half: 102.3 IP, 9-3, 3.08 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .209 BAA, 97 K, 39 BB

We know he’s Colorado’s ace, but can he be your fantasy ace as well? With numbers like that I think so. I can see him being ranked in the top 12 by season’s end. Personally I would prefer him as a #2 fantasy pitcher (see my SP rankings). If I miss out on Lincecum, Greinke, King Felix, Johan, C.C, Halladay, Haren, and Verlander, I wouldn’t mind having Ubaldo paired with Cliff Lee, Beckett, Wainwright, Kershaw, or Cole Hamels. That would allow me to address another positional need first, and then adding two big guns to my pitching staff.

What’s your take? Do you see Ubaldo as a #1 or a #2 in 2010?

Prediction:  17-12, 3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP,  195 K

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox:  Jake Peavy
Cincinnati Reds:  Joey Votto
Cleveland Indians:  Grady Sizemore

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Grady Sizemore is a coveted fantasy player because of his ability to score runs, hit HRs, and steal bases. He battled through a hernia and an elbow injury last year, but still managed to put up a respectable 73 runs, 18 HRs, and 13 SBs in 103 games.

Even with his shortened season he’s averaging 107 runs, 25 HRs, 78 RBIs, and 26 SBs over the past five years. He’s struggled at the plate the past two seasons, but his average over that five-year stretch is .276. Not great, but not terrible either. Not when you consider what else he brings to the table.

I know the Indians’ lineup isn’t what it used to be, but they have some good young talent in Shin-Soo Choo, Matt LaPorta, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Michael Brantley to go along with veterans Jhonny Peralta and Travis Hafner.

The question is, where do you take Sizemore in fantasy drafts? He’s clearly not a first rounder any more. Not coming off an injury, even if he did shut it down early. I wouldn’t hesitate to grab him towards the end of the second round. I have him as my 4th ranked outfielder (click to see rankings), and I like the advantage he gives you in runs and SBs while chipping in with a respectable amount of HRs. All of this is dependent upon his health, but I’m not overly concerned with it. From 2005-2008 he missed just nine games.

Prediction:  .275, 110 runs, 28 HRs, 80 RBIs, 35 SBs

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox:  Jake Peavy
Cincinnati Reds:  Joey Votto

Joey Votto is really a hot button player this year. Some really love him, while others want no parts of him. I think I’m somewhere in the middle. 

I understand the concern since Votto ’s career highs in runs (82), HRs (25), and RBIs (84) by no means scream fantasy starting first basemen. I can’t fault you if his mysterious absence last year has you concerned. Nor can I fault you if you think he’s overvalued given an ADP that puts him in the early third round. Personally I have him as my 9th ranked 1B (click to see the rankings).

Putting all of that aside, I love his potential. He’s a career .310 hitter with a .924 OPS. While he’s not a prototypical power hitter, he has hit 49 the past two years with 70 doubles. The addition of Orlando Cabrera should lead to more RBI opportunities. 

While he plays in a hitter’s park, he is equally as effective on the road.

Home:  528 AB, 86 R, 160 H, 31 2B, 3 3B, 32 HR, 99 RBI, .303 BA, .939 OPS
Away:  551 AB, 76 R, 174 H, 46 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 86 RBI, .316 BA, .909 OPS

He has picked apart his division to the tune of .317 with 32 HRs and 99 RBIs in 156 games.

Votto will turn 27 in September and is in his third full year in the bigs. If anyone has breakout written all over them, it’s Votto. That doesn’t mean I think you should take him early in the third round, but I would have no problem if he slipped to the 4th, even if I had him penciled in for my IF slot.

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox:  Jake Peavy

Jake Peavy threw 20 brilliant innings for the White Sox last year going 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, a .162 BAA, and 18 Ks. Obviously that’s not a pace he can keep in a full season with the White Sox, but he should still be one of the better #2 fantasy pitchers out there (click here for starting pitcher rankings).

Leaving PETCO Park and the National League isn’t ideal for Peavy, but he’ll adjust. Talented pitching generally holds up regardless of where you pitch. Take C.C. Sabathia for example. He had no problem delivering for the Yankees last year. Same with Cliff Lee in Philly.

Peavy is a 95-68 (.586) pitcher with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a .231 BAA. His K/9 ratio is 9.02. While he’s been dominant at home, he hasn’t been terrible on the road.

Home: 740.3 IP, 47-31, 2.82 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .219 BAA, 792 K
Away: 622.3 IP, 48-37, 3.79 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, .244 BAA, 574 K

His primary opponents (Twins, Tigers, Indians, Royals) aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts. Peavy may not put up the numbers of yesteryear, but he won’t be going as early in drafts, which should offset things. I’d be more than happy with him as a #2 fantasy pitcher.

Prediction: 15-8, 3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 175 Ks

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto

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Geovany Soto was a draft day darling last year. What’s not to love about a player who tore up the Pacific Coast League in 2007 to the tune of .353, 26 HRs, and 109 RBIs in 385 ABs? Especially when he hit .389 with 12 runs, 3 HRs, and 8 RBIs upon being called up. Then in his first full year with the Cubs he takes home Rookie of the Year honors by hitting .285 with 23 HRs and 86 RBIs.

After posting a .218, 11 HR, 47 RBI line in 2009, Soto’s draft stock took a major hit, and that’s just where I want him. He struggled last year, but is an amazing talent. There aren’t many catchers that have the potential for as many HRs and RBIs as Soto. Injuries contributed to his struggles, but his weight became an issue as well.

According to a MLB.com report (click for article)  he lost 40 pounds.In a demanding position, his new frame should keep him spry. Time will tell if the change in body type will impact his power, but he should be more productive at and behind the plate.

He’s not in the conversation with Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, or Brian McCann, but he should be a high-end fantasy catcher in 2010 (click here for catcher rankings).

Prediction: .295, 68 runs, 20 HRs, 85 RBIs

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz

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Is this the year Clay Buchholz finally sticks in the starting rotation? He has all the tools, but once again the Sox are loaded at the position. Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, and John Lackey certainly have their roles carved provided their healthy. That leaves a tussle between Buchholz, the expensive import Daisuke Matsuzaka, and the ageless wonder Tim Wakefield. Whether or not Buchholz can hold off the gyroballer or knuckleballer will go a long way in determining his fantasy value.

As long as he’s not traded, I’m going with the assumption that Buchholz will be a regular in the rotation. Dice-K will likely join him with Wakefield being the odd man out. Wakefield gives the Red Sox more flexibility in that he can pitch on much shorter rest, be it in long relief or a spot start. Plus, Clay and Matsuzaka have more upside.

Speaking of Buchholz’s upside, he’s a guy who threw a no-hitter in his second start. After a miserable 2008 campaign where he posted a 2-9 record with a 6.75 ERA and 1.76 WHIP, he got back on track with a 7-4, 4.21 ERA, 1.38 WHIP 2009 season.

2010 should be even better. Aside from having twice as many starts, which in and of itself will increase his fantasy value, the Red Sox bolstered their defense by adding Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre. Plus, the addition of John Lackey gives him another veteran pitcher to lean on and learn from.

Buchholz’s brilliant September in the heat of the Wild Card race should give him the confidence he needs to succeed. He was 4-1 in six starts with a sparkling 2.87 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and .225 BAA. He even got a taste of the post season, earning a no-decision against the Angels. He gave up two runs in 5 Innings (3.60 ERA). He was in line for the win before Boston’s bullpen imploded. I expect big thing from Buchholz this year.

Prediction: 13-7, 3.65 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 160 Ks

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones

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Adam Jones had it going on last year. He was hitting .303 with 55 runs, 12 HRs, 47 RBIs, and 6 SBs before the All-Star Break. He started off red hot hitting .344 with 40 runs, 11 HRs, and 36 RBIs in the season’s first two months. Jones struggled in June hitting a dismal .229 with 10 runs, 1 HR, and 8 RBIs, but rebounded with a .270, 15 run, 5 HR, 15 RBI July. He sunk to .211 in August, but managed 18 runs and 11 RBIs. Then Jones shut it down in September with an ankle injury.

Talk about a tale of two seasons. When you look at the aggregate you see a player who improved dramatically in 2009.

2008:  477 ABs, .270, 61 runs, 9 HRs, 57 RBIs, 10 SBs, .711 OPS
2009:  473 ABs, .277, 83 runs, 19 HRs, 70 RBIs, 10 SBs, .792 OPS

He’s still a very young hitter, he’ll turn 25 in August, with plenty of room for growth. He showed a knack for scoring runs even when he struggle with his average. With Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis, Nolan Reimold, Garrett Atkins, Luke Scott, and Miguel Tejada hitting behind him, he should be in line for 100 runs. He showed some pop in that bat, and if he’s able to give the Orioles 500+ ABs, he should continue to improve on the power numbers.

He doesn’t excel in any particular category so I would prefer him as a him as a number three fantasy outfielders, but I would be OK with him as my number two. He should be a top 25 fantasy OF in 2010.

Prediction:  .285, 100 runs, 24 HRs, 82 RBIs, 12 SBs

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar