Bauer Outages Reach Lester’s Legends

Jul 3, 2012


.
By Jordan Hall
.
The triumphant debut of Trevor Bauer has come and gone and it has us all wondering exactly what to expect out of the young ace. Rarely has a pitcher been so hyped as Bauer. From the “Free Trevor Bauer” signs seen in the desert South West to the calls for Bauer Outages across the country, it seems the world was far more anxious to see him throw than we’re the Diamondbacks.
.
Well now that the fanfare has died down and all parties involved can get back to business, it’s time to figure out what Bauer can do for us in the long and short term, from a fantasy perspective. To get a little perspective, I think we need only to go back as far as last season to see the precedent set by another phenom: Matt Moore. Through Moore’s time down on the farm, he never averaged fewer than 11.5 strikeouts per nine while being fairly consistent with a walks per nine rate around 3.5. We all remember the impact he had when called up to the show last season but his 2012 campaign has been less memorable.

.
Walks have done him in and though he provides value based on the strikeouts, an inflated WHIP and ERA prevent him from being a fantasy ace, at least for now anyway. Trevor Bauer’s numbers through the Minors mirror that of Moore. Last year he averaged 17 and 14 strikeouts per nine at two different levels yet issuing 4 free passes per nine.
.
Obviously it is impossible to say that any two pitchers will follow precisely the same career path. Saying that Bauer is the next Matt Moore is as fool proof as the countless next Michael Jordan’s we have seen over the past ten years. There are tremendous similarities between the two outside the numbers however. In addition to both being blessed with out of this world raw ability, they were both subjected to the split burden/ blessing of being labeled phenoms. They both have been ushered quickly through the organization and both arrived at the Major League level with massive hype.
.
Moore’s rookie season was cut short because it started so late into the year. It truly was not until the offseason when hitters started making the proper adjustments allowing his elevated walk rate to hurt him. Bauer doesn’t have to worry about this. He easily still has ten to fifteen starts left in his season, enough to make a monumental impact on your team this season.
.
It is at this point where we must make a judgment on Bauer. Certainly his trade value has not diminished; it’s just a matter of whether his actually value will live up to his perceived value. From where I’m sitting, it looks a lot like Bauer is about a half a year behind Moore in development. While history does not always repeat itself, I like the chances of it doing just that this time around. I would look for Bauer to string together several great starts over the coming weeks and months. He is raw and gifted, which should be enough to make him a top 25 pitcher going forward. I think that he will be in the 11 strikeout per nine range with a WHIP around 1.30. The strikeouts will be of great value while the peripherals won’t be bad enough to hurt you.
.
Next year is what worries me with Bauer. Like Moore, Bauer issues free passes, way too many free passes. Eventually that comes around to get you. While many will be on the bandwagon next March when drafting, do the prudent thing and pass. Obviously the future is bright but a Matt Moore-esque sophomore slump will not provide you the return you are looking for.
.
Have a fantasy baseball or football question? Send your questions to Jordan at sportsbrospodcast@gmail.com or on Twitter @lefthandsmoke23 100% chance you will be answered.

Jordan is the host of the Sports Bros Podcast. Check it out at http://sportsbrospodcast.podbean.com
.
Or at the iTunes Music Store at http://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-sports-bros-podcast/id541110117

. .

No Responses so far | Have Your Say!

Leave a Comment


Partner of USA TODAY Sports Digital Properties