Should You Buy Low on Yovani Gallardo?

May 7, 2011

Ordinarily a pitcher  of Yovani Gallardo’s caliber with a BABIP of .358 would be a no-brainer to go after. He has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league thus far. No way can he remain that unlucky during the course of the season.
While I agree with that assessment, it must be noted that Gallardo’s BABIP last year was .324 and in 2009 it was .275. Even when he was tearing it up in Triple-A, he was posting close to a .300 BABIP.
Considering how many of his outs come via the strikeout, and thus the ball never actually gets into play, the high number isn’t all that surprising.
What is surprising is Gallardo’s diminished strikeout rate. After posting 9.89 K/9 and 9.73 K/9 in his first two full seasons with the Brewers, Yovani is down to  6.53 in 2011.That’s quite a drop.
Gallardo has allowed four or more runs in each of his last five starts. It’s to the point that a fantasy owner can be justified letting Gallardo ride the pine until he gets his act together. With St. Louis up next, I can easily see you let Gallardo sit that one out.
If you’re looking to make a deal for Gallardo you have to root against him in his next start. Perhaps that will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and sends his owner off the deep end.
Then you can swoop in and get Gallardo for pennies on the dollar. He has two consecutive 200 strikeout seasons, posting ERA of 3.84 and 3.73. He’s just 25. If anybody is going to turn it around, it seems like Gallardo could be the guy.

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3 Responses so far | Have Your Say!

  1. wynams
    May 8th, 2011 at 9:15 am #

    Also noteworthy: his velocity continues to increase with arm strength; however his BB/9 is right at career average amd with his K rate down is making for lots of base runners.

    Also of note was an extraordinary defensive play by Brewers RF Kotsay to deny Tyler Greene of an RBI double and keep the inning going for the Cardinals. That’s all a part of BABIP though so a sign of Gallardo’s luck turning around, and it was good to see him put together such an outing.

  2. LestersLegends
    May 8th, 2011 at 9:33 am #

    I’m afraid the window was closed after yesterday’s performance. Just proof that he’s going to turn it around.

  3. Elyza
    July 5th, 2011 at 7:44 pm #

    I am toatlly wowed and prepared to take the next step now.

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