LestersLegends.com

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Last time we discussed the sleepers. This time we’re taking a look at who will be the biggest bust in the 2011-12 fantasy basketball season.
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Patrick from Give Me the Rock got us started.
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The aged Tim Duncan is an obvious choice given that this might be the year that he finally falls off a cliff. But I’ll go out on a limb all by myself and say Jrue Holiday. Everyone loves the guy – from Doug Collins to Sixers fans to fantasy owners – and it’s easy to see why when you watch him make his opponents look silly on the court. But the GMTR statistical projections we did before the start of the season suggest that there is a good chance he doesn’t actually improve this season. That sounds crazy since he’s a 21-year old point guard who is entering his third year in the league, but 6 of his 10 closest player comps going back to the year 1990 actually regressed on a per-36 minute basis in their age-21 seasons. In addition, Holiday already averaged over 35 minutes a game last season, so it’s not like can simply play more minutes this year to improve his overall numbers.
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Statistical projections are only a part of the story though. Holiday is off to a slow start this season (averaging only 2.8 assists to go along with his 15.5 points) due in part to guys like Andre Iguodala and Louis Williams sucking up Sixers’ possessions with a lot of long two point attempts instead of letting Holiday attack the basket. Holiday’s assists will go back up eventually as he’s given more control of the offense, but as long as Iguodala is considered “the man” on this Sixers team, we may have to wait for Holiday to take that huge step forward everyone is expecting.
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Now we send it over to William from RotoProfessor.
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Stephen Jackson: I was down on Jackson before the season started and the early results have only further entrenched my doubts. Milwaukee is a deeper team than Charlotte was last season and there is much more completion for playing time in Milwaukee where sharing playing time and running a deep rotation is part of their success.
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Jackson has been a borderline top 50 player for several years now and this season he was drafted 53rd overall on average. Jackson hasn’t shot better than 42% in a season since the 2006 – 2007 season. His success in fantasy leagues does not come from him being a quality shot taker, but rather a quantity shot taker. I think Jackson will be closer to the 15 points per game side of things than the 20 points per game side he has been the last few seasons.
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All of this and we haven’t talked about his injury history. Jackson has missed multiple games in nearly every season the last five seasons. We’ve already seen the toll injuries can take in a shortened season. If Jackson gets banged up an injury that sidelines him for a week or two means missing multiple games and not just a couple as it would be in a normal season. The change of scenery, the offensive style in Milwaukee and the shortened season all have me believing Jackson won’t be close to a top 50 player this season.
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Finally, Ryan from Lester’s Legends will weigh in.
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The player I see taking a fall is Kevin Garnett. His scoring has been in decline the past three seasons, but his rebounding kept him among the top 50 fantasy players. At his age (35) and more importantly with his mileage (17th season) the condensed season is going to be a challenge. The real season begins during the playoffs for KG and the Celtics and he will do his best to have tank in the gas come season’s end.
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The Celtics have a capable backup to KG in the form of Brandon Bass, who is nine years younger. He has the body to bang with the big boys and take some of the toll away from KG’s body.
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Garnett will likely finish with fewer than 15.o ppg, 7.0 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.0 bpg, and 1.0 spg. Good across the board numbers with a solid shooting percentage (around 50 percent), but clearly not numbers that will blow you away.

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We are bringing back the fantasy basketball roundtable this year between three different fantasy basketball blogs. Every week one member of the roundtable will propose a question to the writers on all three sites and all those who choose to will answer.
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Hopefully this will lead to lots of good discussion, and hopefully a healthy amount of friendly disagreement as well. And maybe, just maybe, you’ll even learn something by reading what we all think.
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To kick things off for our first fantasy roundtable the question was posed by Will from RotoProfessorBasketball. Here is the question and the collection of answers that was received this week:
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Who will be the guy this year that comes out of nowhere and ends up being a top 50 fantasy player?
Think this year’s Dorell Wright who did this last season.
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Ryan from Lester’s Legends
The player that I think will come out of nowhere to earn a spot in starting fantasy lineups and join the mid-to-upper echelon of fantasy players is Jeff Teague.
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He had modest improvements across the board:
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2009-10: 3.2 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 1.7 apg, 0.2 bpg, 0.5 spg
2010-11: 5.2 ppg, 1.5 rpb, 2.0 apg, 0.4 bpg, 0.6 spg
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His biggest improvement came in two areas. First, his field goal percentage improved from a ghastly .396 to a usable .438. Second, his three-pointers per game increased from 0.6 to 1.1 (along with a percentage improvement from .219 to .375).
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The only area he dipped in was free throw percentage (.837 to .794), but that is still a respectable number and he didn’t shoot enough free throws to make or break you in that category anyway.
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We got a glimpse of what he could do in last year’s playoffs. Teague upped his averages to 11.8 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 3.5 ppg, 0.4 bpg, and 0.8 spg. Despite more than doubling his playing time, his turnovers stayed a solid 1.0 per game. His shooting got even better at .514 and his free throw shooting improved to .826. The only place he dipped was three-point shooting (.143).
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With Jamal Crawford in Portland and Kirk Hinrich (shoulder) on the shelf to start the year, Teague has a chance to get a firm hold on the starting point guard position for the Hawks.
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Erik from Give Me the Rock
I would say Jared Dudley. He’ll bring on the 3s at good percentages and low turnovers. He should crack the Top 50 on sheer efficiency. Even though he’s been projected as a sleeper, not too many have
jumped on his bandwagon.
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Nels from Give Me the Rock
I think Jordan Crawford could make the jump this year. The Wizards have Nick Young as their starting SG, and while Young may get the playing time there, I think Crawford is more deserving of it, and has the potential to eclipse Young’s numbers if given the chance.
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Unless he gets 30+ minutes per game, he’s not going to make the Top 50, but he’s a better passer than Young and if he can improve his FG efficiency, he could easily become a better scorer. I think Crawford is a nice late pick with the ability to get some extra minutes backing up John Wall and Young at both Guard positions.
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Edwin from RotoProfessor
Paul George: Have you ever known a 21 year old swing man to grow 2 inches from one year to the next. He was 6-8 and is now listed at 6-10. He’s now longer, stronger, and more athletic than he was
last year and he put on 10 lbs of muscle. He played Derrick Rose about as good as anyone can play him
defensively in the post season.
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He shot 45% from the field last year. If he develops more of an outside shot, there is no doubt he will be a borderline all-star. He was already contributing 1 steal per game, about 1 3-pointer per game, and 3.7 boards per game. I think he is ready to make the leap to a top 50 fantasy player. Realistically, if he starts for the Pacers, he can easily contribute anywhere between 15-20 pts a game, 1 or 2 3-pointers, 1.5 steals, and over 5 boards a game. He might also be able to contribute shot blocking with his length and size.
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Will from RotoProfessor
There are a few guys I think could make this jump and that’s one of the things that makes this season so highly anticipated for me. I’m going to go with Ed Davis here though. He has just the right combination of opportunity and talent to make the leap in my opinion. I’ve heard the concerns about playing time and while it looks like Amir Johnson is going to start at center, Davis will back up both the power forward and center spots and get 30 minutes, because he has the most talent on the that frontcourt.
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Davis showed off his skills in the second half last season once he got playing time and I think if he can get 25 – 30 minutes coming off the bench he’ll come close to averaging a double-double. He also
contributes over a block per game and should get a steal per game. That’s four categories he contributes in and he shoots a high percentage. Because he contributes across the board Davis could approach that top 50 level without blowing out one particular category.
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There’s everyone’s opinion on the question. Now it’s your turn to chime in and agree, disagree or give your own answer. And make sure to check out each of these blogs for more fantasy basketball goodness
and we’ll be back next week with another roundtable.

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Time for another fantasy basketball roundtable.
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I am once again responsible for this week’s question.

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This Week’s Topic:
Last week we looked at everybody’s most shameful draft pick? This week we’ll flip it around and ask who has been the most surprising jewel of our experts drafts, and whether they anticipate continued success the rest of the way?
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Justin Hasan
WinMyFantasyLeague.com

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Russell Westbrook has to be the most surprising jewel of my draft.  First round picks Chris Paul, Stephen Curry, and Deron Williams may be ahead of Westbrook in the rankings, but the Oklahoma City point guard represents the top return on investment.
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I was able to snag Westbrook in the 4^th round and he is currently ranked among the top 12 fantasy players (10^th in the GMTR H2H Player Rater and 12^th in the Yahoo rankings). Through the first 22 games of the season, the former UCLA Bruin has averaged 23.7 points, 8.6 assists, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.2 steals per game.  His 87% free throw shooting is a huge bonus considering that he gets to the line on average nine times per contest.
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Some would contend that Raymond Felton has been the more surprising jewel of the draft, but New York has had one of the most generous schedules in the NBA so far. Their west coast roadtrip was against the Warriors, Clippers, Kings, Nuggets, and Timberwolves. With the exception of the Nuggets, they faced the basement teams of the Western Conference.  I was a huge fan of Raymond Felton coming into the season, but with a tough schedule ahead (facing the top Eastern Conference teams in December and the top Western Conference teams in January), his production will take a hit.
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Russell Westbrook on the other hand, has proven his elite fantasy status against the top competition in the Western Conference. His game has shown massive improvements in each of his three years in the NBA and is a triple-double threat every time he steps on the floor. I anticipate continued success the rest of the way for him and expect him to be taken in the first round of fantasy drafts next year.
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Jason Hahn
fBasketballBlog
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D.J. Augustin has made me very proud so far this season. I was fortunate enough to draft him with picks No. 118 and 127 in two leagues of mine, and seeing as how he’s ranked in the top 65 based on averages through 21 games this season, I have an easy time calling him my fantasy “jewel.” I see no reason why he can’t continue his success for the remainder of 2010-11, mostly because his 35+ minutes per game are safe. Augustin will continue rolling with great, efficient stats from the point guard spot in Charlotte.
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Patrick Madden
Give Me The Rock
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I liked Dorell Wright as a sleeper going into the year, mostly because he was moving from the Miami Heat (where he never got an opportunity really play) to the Golden State Warriors, a team so magical for fantasy purposes that they turned Anthony Morrow and Cory Maggette into top 50 fantasy players last season. But I can’t say I expected him to explode into a player who current sits at #24 on our rater. Given an opportunity to start for the Warriors, Wright has turned into a roto beast, averaging over 2 threes, a steal and a block a game (along with 15 points and 6 rebounds). As long as he remains healthy, Wright will get nearly 40 minutes a game on one of the fastest paced teams in the league, and if that isn’t a recipe for fantasy success, then I don’t know what is.
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My Response:
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I was able to secure Paul Millsap in the sixth round of my fantasy draft. Some of the big men taken before him were Chris Bosh, Al Jefferson, David West, Nene, Antawn Jamison, Troy Murphy, and Chris Kaman. Getting a player averaging approximately 18.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.0 block while shooting 55 percent from the field and 76 percent from the line in the sixth round certainly constitutes a jewel in my book. He’s slowed a bit of late, but on November 9th he showed what he’s capable of when he dropped 46 points on the Heat.
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His numbers will likely dip a bit when Mehmet Okur returns, but I see no reason why he won’t continue to play above his draft slot.

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Time for another fantasy basketball roundtable.
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Jason of fBasketballBlog was responsible for this week’s question. Click here for the full article.

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This Week’s Topic:
Who has turned out to be your most shameful draft pick?
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My Response:
Without a question, J.R. Smith has been my most shameful draft pick. I figured if Carmelo Anthony was dealt, Smith would be in line for a big scoring boost. If nothing else, he’d be good for around 15 points a game, along with a couple of three-pointers. I did not anticipate a swan dive in minutes and virtually every category. Aside from his recent 30-point outbreak, Smith has been held to 13 or fewer points every game this season. Not exactly what I was expecting from a guy who averaged 15.3 points over the past two seasons. The 2.2 three-pointers per game he averaged over the past four seasons was down to 1.3 as of 11/30 with only one game with more than two treys.

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Time for another fantasy basketball roundtable.
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William of Rotoprofessor was responsible for this week’s question. Click here for the full article.

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This Week’s Topic:
Looking at the owned percentages on different popular fantasy basketball sites, who is one player you feel is still being overlooked and should be added in more leagues?
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My Response:
One player that I feel is being overlooked is Cleveland’s Daniel Gibson. As of Monday he was owned in just 57 percent of Yahoo! And 61.1 percent of ESPN leagues. This is a guy averaging 14.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 0.9 steals, and 1.9 three-pointers per game. His 1.3 turnovers per game and 43.6% field goal percentage won’t set you back too much, while his 81.1% free throw percentage should help. Even though Mo Williams is back in the lineup, Gibson should continue to produce off the bench for the Cavs.

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Time for another fantasy basketball roundtable.
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Justin of Life is Just a Fantasy…Basketball Blog got us back on track. Click here for the full article.

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This Week’s Topic:
Who do you recommend selling high on, and who are some possible targets?
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My Response:
A player that I would look to sell high is Monta Ellis. As of 11/16 he’s averaging 26.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.5 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers. It’s not that I don’t think he’s a terrific player, but I just don’t trust him to stay healthy.If you can move him for Derrick Rose, and perhaps another piece, I would jump on that.

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Time for another fantasy basketball roundtable.
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This week’s roundtable didn’t get off the ground. I answered it though, so I might as well post it.

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This Week’s Topic:
Among “expert” drafts, which player seems to be going higher than anticipated and which, in turn, seems to be getting drafted especially late?
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My Response:
This may seem redundant based on last week’s question, but I think Stephen Curry is going to early. The Warriors have a new coach, that will slow it down some. Part of his success can be attributed to the lack of depth last year when the Warriors were playing six or seven players some games. Too much risk here, when big guys like Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard are coming off the board after him.
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On the flip side, I think Derrick Rose is going to late. Yahoo has him ranked #42 just before Mo Williams. Rose worked tirelessly on his game, and I’m anticipating him to take a major jump this season.