I’m going back out on that fantasy football limb. I will pick five players I believe will score more points this week than a higher profile player. The scoring will be 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. I will also do a Super Stretch Pick where I take a real longshot. First, I’ll recap last week.

Last Week
Brett Favre 30.55 beat Jason Campbell 14.7 WHICH I GOT WRONG
Frank Gore 5.1 beat Rudi Johnson 4.2 WHICH I GOT WRONG
LaMont Jordan
21.3 beat Maurice Jones-Drew as I predicted.
Larry Fitzgerald 8.5 beat Santana Moss 8.4 WHICH I GOT WRONG
However, Fitz fumbled a ball so if your league deducts for fumbles, Moss was the better play.
Vincent Jackson 16.8 beat Hines Ward 0.9 as I predicted.

Super Stretch
LenDale White 12.0 beat Thomas Jones 11.1 asI predicted.

Season Record: 8-7 Regular Picks, 3-0 Super Stretch Picks, 11-7 Overall
QB: 2-1, RB: 6-3, WR: 3-3

This Week’s Picks
Brian Griese over Jeff Garcia
Chicago is finally pulling the plug on the Rex Grossman Experiment. Griese has a solid day to keep the job for a while. Garcia struggles a little on the road against Carolina.

Marion Barber III over Willie Parker
MB3 has been awesome. He should have no problems against St. Louis at home. Fast Willie won’t be able to keep up on the road against Arizona.

Brian Leonard over Jerious Norwood
Leonard gets the starting nod because of S-Jax’s injury. He takes advantage of by outperforming Norwood against Houston’s surprisingly good D.

Kevin Curtis over Braylon Edwards
Curtis shows he was no fluke against a weak Giants pass D. Edwards has the fun matchup with Baltimore.

Javon Walker over Marvin Harrison
Their teams square off so why not an Out on a Limb square off as well.  Denver will be playing from behind padding Walker’s stats. Indy will be up so Addai will get the work. Not to mention Marvin has to share with Wayne.
SUPER STRETCH
Wes Welker
over Larry Fitzgerald
I’m really picking on Fitz this year. He hasn’t reached rock bottom yet. Facing Pittsburgh will bring him there. I sense Brady will remind everyone that it’s not just Randy Moss this year.

What did you think of my predictions? Do you have any fantasy upsets in mind? Please leave your comments.

Previous Out on a Limb Picks
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3

What Happened to Our Running Backs?

I’ll ask it again. What has happened to our running backs? LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, and Larry Johnson. These guys were generally the top 3 picks in most fantasy drafts. LJ may have slid depending on when you drafted based on his preseason contract situation. Rudi Johnson, Willis McGahee, Laurence Maroney, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Reggie Bush were late first, early second round picks. All of these players have been fairly disappointing thus far.

These running backs are being outscored by the likes of Randy Moss, Chad Johnson, Plaxico Burress, Steve Smith, Roy Williams, Terrell Owens, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Kevin Curtis, Anquan Boldin, Braylon Edwards, and Andre Johnson (who even missed a game). I could see Randy Moss, Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, and Terrell Owens, but the rest? That’s crazy.

Not all of the running backs are off to slow starts. Brian Westbrook and Ronnie Brown have rode big Week 3′s to the top of the scoring list. Joseph Addai and Willie Parker have been great. Marion Barber III, LaMont Jordan, Adrian Peterson, Clinton Portis, Edgerrin James, and Derrick Ward have been surprisingly some of the strongest, most consistent plays.

How many of these guys brought jeers from your leaguemates when you selected them in your draft? Who’s laughing now? Fantasy football is unpredictable. You can research until your face turns blue, but sometimes a little luck is all you need. So when you are drafting next year, try not to make fun of people for their picks. Remember, anything can happen.

So what can you do with this info? If you’re me, you seek out the owners of the running backs who have been disappoinments. Obviously, LT is most likely untouchable. As is Reggie Bush, whose value increased with the injury to Deuce McAllister. There may not be a better time to try and get S-Jax. He’s hurt and has been struggling. However, if you can get him for a bargain, it will help you in the long run. Eventually, New England will use the running game more. If you can get Maroney for cheap, you may be smiling when your faith is rewarded. Kansas City worked the outside with Dwayne Bowe, which opened the middle for Tony Gonzalez. That could eventually opens things up for LJ. Have you looked at Cincinnati’s fantasy playoff schedule (Weeks 14-16)? It’s as close to a cake walk as you’re going to get in the NFL. For that reason, he could be a trade target. I don’t recommend MJD. I predicted he’d be a bust in the preseason, and he’s making me look like a genius.

So there you have it. A little bit of news. A little bit of trade help. Hopefully it helps you. Agree with my assessments? Think I’m full of it? Feel free to leave me a comment below.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

Fantasy Football Forum
Did you win your matchup this week? What’s your record? Me, I’m 3-0. I was the 2nd high scorer in my league this week despite getting less than 8 points from Larry & Rudi Johnson. The guy who carried the big lumber for me this week was Kevin Curtis. My opponent was less than pleased. As you may know, I’m in an 8 man keeper league. I’m pretty proud of starting Curtis in an 8 man league. Tom Brady was amazing yet again. Chad Johnson played well. My free agent pickup of Dallas Clark paid an immediate dividend. I finally found a kicker in Jeff Reed. I would have been better off starting Benson or LenDale over either Johnson.

That’s how my weekend of fantasy football went. How did you do?
Tracking My NFL Preseason Predictions
I made a bunch of predictions in the preseason. I profiled guys I thought would do well. I also profiled guys I thought wouldn’t meet expectations. Here are mypreseason predictions are going.

Surprises
J.P. Losman – Prediction: 3400 yards, 24 TDs, 16 INTs
On Pace for: 1360 yards, 0 TDs, 5 INTs
Right-O-Meter: 1
Losman got hurt. Really hurts your projections. He completed every pass in Week 3. So what if he just threw one pass.

Alex Smith – Prediction: 3000 yards, 20 TDs, 14 INTs
On Pace for: 2459 yards, 5 TDs, 5 INTs
Right-O-Meter: 1
Well, he finally cracked 200 yards and threw his first TD.

Chris Brown – Prediction: 1000 total yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 1440 total yards, 0 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 8
56 total yards in Week 3. LenDale has scored the past two weeks though. Brown needs to break some long ones.

Jerious Norwood – Prediction: 1200 total yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 885 total yards, 0 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 4
His 66 total yards was his season’s best.

D.J. Hackett – Prediction: 80 receptions, 1100 yards, 8 TDs
On Pace for: 37 yards
Did not play because of ankle injury.
Right-O-Meter: 1 – An ankle injury will keep the Right-O-Meter low all year long.

Vincent Jackson – Prediction: 64 receptions, 1100 yards, 9 TDs
On Pace for: 955 yards, 5 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 6
98 yards and a score. That’s what I’m talking about.

Heath Miller – Prediction: 600 yard, 8 TDs
On Pace for: 805 yards, 5 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 10
Solidf 82 yard performance

Disappointments
Vince Young – Prediction: 2800 passing yards, 650 rushing yards, 16 TDs, 6 rushing TDs, 20 INTs
On Pace for: 2272 yards passing, 512 rushing yards, 16 TDs, 5 rushing TDs, 15 INTs
Right-O-Meter: 10
My predictions are on target, but a further review of my projections, and those numbers wouldn’t be that bad.

Maurice Jones-Drew- Prediction: 1100 total yards, 8 rushing & receiving TDs
On Pace for: 832 total yards, 0 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 10
55 total yards. Another stinker. At least he outscored Larry and Rudi Johnson this week.

Torry Holt – Prediction: 1100 yards, 7 TDs
On Pace for: 1120 yards, 11 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 5
He didn’t reach the endzone this week. His 63 yards were mediocre, but keep in mind Bulger only threw for 116 yards.

Tony Gonzalez – Prediction: 700 yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 891 yards, 0 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 8
His yardage is better than I thought, but he still hasn’t reached the endzone. He did have a solid 7 catch, 96 yard game against Minnesota. Dwayne Bowe looked good, which could open things up for Gonzo and LJ.

I continue to bomb at QB. Half of my WR prediction seems to be coming around. MY RBs need to break long TDs to get me going. TE has been solid. My bust picks are still pretty accurate.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

I’m going back out on that fantasy football limb. I will pick five players I believe will score more points this week than a higher profile player. The scoring will be 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. I will also do a Super Stretch Pick where I take a real longshot. First, I’ll recap last week.

Last Week
Brett Favre 26.1 beat Marc Bulger 22.4 as I predicted.
Shaun Alexander 13.5 beat Steven Jackson 9.6 as I predicted.
Laurence Maroney 7.7 beat Maurice Jones-Drew 4.1 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Marvin Harrison 8.7 beat Reggie Wayne 7.0 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
I’m 0-3 picking Reggie’s this year.
Santonio Holmes 5.3 beat Ronald Curry 1.2 as I predicted.

Super Stretch
Cedric Benson 11.0 beat Larry Johnson 8.7 as I predicted.

Season Record: 6-4, 2-0
QB: 2-0, RB: 4-2, WR: 2-2

This Week’s Picks
Jason Campbell over Brett Favre
Last week I rode Favre against a porous Giants defense. This time I’m flipping the switch on the old man. I’m going Campbell against the aforementioned porous Giants D, figuring Shawn Merrim*n and company will force Favre into plenty of mistakes.

LaMont Jordan over Maurice Jones-Drew
MJD let me down last week. This week I’m picking on him. LaMont Jordan should be able to move the chains against Cleveland. MJD will have his hands full with Denver’s tough D.

Rudi Johnson over Frank Gore
I’ll take on Gore again. I’m not going with a Reggie this time. Instead, I’ll take Rudi against Seattle. I like the matchup better than Gore against Pittsburgh.

Santana Moss over Larry Fitzgerald
Jason Campbell has to throw to somebody. I think Moss gets in the endzone. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran one in as well. Fitz has gotten off to a slow start. Facing Baltimore won’t help

Vincent Jackson over Hines Ward
Vincnet Jackson has been pretty quiet. I think he gets it going this week against Green Bay. Hines Ward will have Nate Clements to deal with in SF.

STRETCH
LenDale White
over Thomas Jones
LenDale has actually been pretty productive. Thomas Jones hasn’t got on track yet. Facing New England, Baltimore, and now Miami won’t help. He is a buy low candidate though. I suggest you try and steal him from his owner in your leauge.

What did you think of my predictions? Do you have any fantasy upsets in mind? Please leave your comments.

Previous Out on a Limb Picks
Week 1
Week 2

Fantasy Football Forum
Did you win your matchup this week? 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2? Me, I’m 2-0. I was the high scorer in my league this week despite another non-Larry Johnsonesque performance from LJ. The other Johnsons (Chad, Andre, and Rudi) carried the load for me. Tom Brady sealed the deal. I feel bad for my opponent. He had the second highest score with big games from Kellen Winslow, Housh, MN DEF, and Edge. Thankfully he had Jamal Lewis and Cotchery on the bench. I had another sucky game from a kicker. I picked up Kasay and he was awful. I hate kickers. I want to be in a league that just doesn’t have them. Next year maybe. Cedric Benson or LenDale White would have been better plays at RB than LJ. Oh well.

That’s how my weekend of fantasy football went. How did you do?

Tracking My NFL Preseason Predictions
I made a bunch of predictions in the preseason. I profiled guys I thought would do well. I also profiled guys I thought wouldn’t meet expectations. Here are mypreseason predictions are going.

Surprises
J.P. Losman – Prediction: 3400 yards, 24 TDs, 16 INTs
On Pace for: 2008 yards, 0 TDs, 8 INTs
Right-O-Meter: 1
Horrible Week 2. Faced tough Pittsburgh D. Needs to step up big time. At least he didn’t throw a pick.

Alex Smith – Prediction: 3000 yards, 20 TDs, 14 INTs
On Pace for: 2016 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs
Right-O-Meter: 1
Another mediocre game for Smith. He’s winning though.

Chris Brown – Prediction: 1000 total yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 1712 total yards, 0 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 8
Brown came back to Earth. My projections still look pretty good.

Jerious Norwood – Prediction: 1200 total yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 800 yards, 0 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 5
43 total yards. Not so great.

D.J. Hackett – Prediction: 80 receptions, 1100 yards, 8 TDs
On Pace for: 4 receptions, 28 yards, 0 TDs
Did not play because of ankle injury.
Right-O-Meter: 1 – An ankle injury will keep the Right-O-Meter low all year long.

Vincent Jackson – Prediction: 64 receptions, 1100 yards, 9 TDs
On Pace for: 648 yards, 0 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 1
He better start catching some TDs if my projections are going to be even close.

Heath Miller – Prediction: 600 yard, 8 TDs
On Pace for: 552 yards, 8 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 10
34 yards. He didn’t exactly set the world on fire. A TD would have been nice.

Disappointments
Vince Young – Prediction: 2800 passing yards, 650 rushing yards, 16 TDs, 6 rushing TDs, 20 INTs
On Pace for: 2096 yards, 600 rushing yards, 8 TDs, 8 rushing TDs, 8 INTs
Right-O-Meter: 10
Pretty on the money thus far.

Maurice Jones-Drew- Prediction: 1100 total yards, 8 rushing & receiving TDs
On Pace for: 808 yards, 0 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 10
Another horrible performance for a 2nd round fantasy pick. 41 total yards. Are you kidding me?

Torry Holt – Prediction: 1100 yards, 7 TDs
On Pace for: 1176 yards, 16 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 3
He scored a TD for the second straight week. Can’t argue with that.

Tony Gonzalez – Prediction: 700 yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 568 yards, 0 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 10
43 yards. Yuck.

I continued to bomb at QB and WR. I’m still doing well at RB & TE. My bust picks, aside from Holt, are money.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

I’m going back out on that fantasy football limb. I will pick five players I believe will score more points this week than a higher profile player. The scoring will be 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. I will also do a Super Stretch Pick where I take a real longshot. First, I’ll recap last week

Last Week
Big Ben 24.25 beat Vince Young 12.1 as I predicted.
Travis Henry 18.3 beat Shaun Alexander 17.4 as I predicted.
Frank Gore 13.6 beat Reggie Bush 4.5 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Roy Williams 8.0 beat Reggie Brown 1.4 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Andre Johnson 19.2 beat Chad Johnson 15.7 as I predicted.Super Stretch
Joseph Addai 20.3 beat LT as I predicted.
Season Record: 3-2, 1-0
QB: 1-0, RB: 2-1, WR: 1-1

 

This Week’s Picks
Brett Favre over Marc Bluger
The Giants made Tony Romo look like Joe Montana last week. This week they make Brett Favre look like a younger version of himself. SF’s defense looked pretty good on MNF.

Maurice Jones-Drew over Laurence Maroney
I’m not a huge MJD guy. However, I think he’ll win the battle of the 2nd year backs this week. Jax is coming off a tough loss to Tennessee. They are going to focus heavily on the run against Atlanta, who flat out stinks. Maroney will have to deal with San Diego.

Shaun Alexander over Steven Jackson
SA will continue his TD scoring ways against Arizona. S-Jax struggles a bit without Orlando Pace.

Reggie Wayne over Marvin Harrison
Reggie will continue to prove that he’s finally the best receiver on the Colts. Noboday can stay with him…period. Marvin will do fine, but he loses out to his teammate

Santonio Holmes over Ronald Curry
I think Santonio has a decent outing this week. I’m not putting him in the endzone, but I think he does good. Ronald Curry will be facing Champ Bailey, who I’m sure realizes Curry had 10 grabs last week for 133 yards and a touch. Bailey will not allow him to repeat.

Super Stretch
Cedric Benson over Larry Johnson
Kansas City is awful. They are just what the doctor order for a struggling Chicago offense. Chicago shut down LT. They will be looking to same against LJ.

What did you think of my predictions? Do you have any fantasy upsets in mind? Please leave your comments.

Previous Out on a Limb Picks
Week 1

Fantasy Football Forum
So did your 2007 fantasy team get off on the right foot? Did you stumble out of the gates? I made a key mistake and got little production from Larry Johnson, but I stomped anyway. Tom Brady and Andre Johnson led the way. Chad Johnson sealed the deal. I made a last minute decision to start Kevin Curtis over Laveranues Coles. Coles repaid me by scoring twice. Live and learn I guess.

That’s how my weekend of fantasy football went. How did you do?

Tracking My NFL Preseason Predictions
I made a bunch of predictions in the preseason. I profiled guys I thought would do well. I also profiled guys I thought wouldn’t meet expectations. Here are my preseason predictions.
Surprises
J.P. Losman – Prediction: 3400 yards, 24 TDs, 16 INTs
On Pace for: 1552 yards, 0 TDs, 16 INTs
At least I have the interception total on pace. Losman had an awful game. 97 yards. He did play the Broncos though. Hopefully he’ll bounce back.
Right-O-Meter: 1

Alex Smith – Prediction: 3000 yards, 20 TDs, 14 INTs
On Pace for: 2016 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs
Alex Smith looked awful until it mattered. He didn’t conjure up any visions of Joe Montana, but he did lead a game-winning drive. His 36 yards on the ground helped, but 126 yards doesn’t cut it.
Right-O-Meter: 2

Chris Brown – Prediction: 1000 total yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 2848 total yards, 0 TDs
I hit a home run on this one…for the first week anyway. 175 rushing yards against Jacksonville. I had no idea he would pull a game like this out. He’ll be a popular guy on the waiver wire this week. Unless you took my advice and got ahead of the curve.
Right-O-Meter: 10

Jerious Norwood – Prediction: 1200 total yards, 5 TDs On Pace for: 912 total yards, 0 TDs
33 rushing and 24 receiving in the opener. He did face a tough Minnesota defense though. Not to mention they were trailing much of the 2nd half and had to deal with Joey Harrington being Joey Harrington.
Right-O-Meter: 6

D.J. Hackett – Prediction: 80 receptions, 1100 yards, 8 TDs
On Pace for: 16 receptions, 112 yards, 0 TDs
Ouch. Not the debut I was looking for for Hackett.
Right-O-Meter: 1 – An ankle injury will keep the Right-O-Meter low all year long.

Vincent Jackson – Prediction: 64 receptions, 1100 yards, 9 TDs
On Pace for: 48 receptions, 448 yards, 0 TDs
Jackson drew a tough early matchup against Chicago. He’ll bounce back.
Right-O-Meter: 2

Heath Miller – Prediction: 600 yard, 8 TDs
On Pace for: 560, 16 TDs
Miller did what I expected him to do. Score a TD vs. Cleveland.
Right-O-Meter: 10

Disappointments
Vince Young – Prediction: 2800 passing yards, 650 rushing yards, 16 TDs, 6 rushing TDs, 20 INTs
On Pace for: 1248 passing yards, 352 rushing yards, 0 TDs, 16 rushing TDs, 16 INTs
VY is a football player. He did what he needed to win. His fantasy numbers (78 passing yards, 22 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD) were horrible.
Right-O-Meter: 10

Maurice Jones-Drew- Prediction: 1100 total yards, 8 rushing & receiving TDs
On Pace for: 960 total yards, 0 TDs
32 rushing and 28 receiving. Not the powerhouse we saw last year. Of course, I already told you that.
Right-O-Meter: 10

Torry Holt – Prediction: 1100 yards, 7 TDs
On Pace for: 1168 yards, 16 TDs
Holt got in the endzone. His 73 yards were pretty good. I could be wrong here. We’ll see.
Right-O-Meter: 1

Tony Gonzalez – Prediction: 700 yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 448 yards, 0 TDs
28 yards vs. Houston. Are you kidding me? Gonzo, you’re making this too easy for me.
Right-O-Meter: 10

I bombed at QB and WR. I was good at RB & TE. I killed it with my bust picks. So far so good.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

In an attempt to prove my fantasy football prowess, I like to make fantasy football predictions. I pick five players I believe will score more points this week than a higher profile player. The scoring will be 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. I will also do a Super Stretch Pick where I take a real longshot.

This Week’s Picks
Big Ben over Vince Young
Big Ben was awful last year. I think this is going to be a bounce-back year for him. I think he starts strong Week 1 vs. Cleveland. VY is going to fell suffocated by Jacksonville’s tough defense.

Travis Henry over Shaun Alexander
Travis Henry has to be licking his chops facing his former team with one of the best lines in the business. Tampa is going to slow down SA.

Reggie Bush over Frank Gore
I think Arizona’s going to be improved this year. Their defense didn’t look that bad at times last year. I think they do a better job of containing Gore than Indy does Bush.

Reggie Brown over Roy Williams
Oakland was great against the pass last year. Their corners are no joke. That and sharing with Calvin Johnson will be enough to render Reggie Brown (vs. Green Bay) a winner for me.

Andre Johnson over Chad Johnson
I tried this matchup a few times last year. I think I lost most of them. CJ has a tough matchup against Baltimore. I don’t think he’ll be sniffing the endzone this week. AJ, however, hits paydirt against KC in my opinion.

SUPER STRETCH
Joseph Addai over LT
Why not take on the top back? He is facing Chicago, so what better chance do I have at beating him? Addai should have plenty of running room against New Orleans. I’ll probably be wrong, but I’ve got a feeling on this one.

What did you think of my predictions? Do you have any fantasy upsets in mind? Please leave your comments.

My 2007 Fantasy Team

1 September 2007

I drafted my 2007 Fantasy Football August 12th because one of our owners had to leave for school. I’d like to run it past you guys and hear how you think I did. I’ll set up the league for you. It is an eight man keeper league in the second year of existence. We got to keep two players from last year, and voted to keep three next year. You start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF, and have eight bench slots. I had the sixth pick because I finished 3rd last year.

Keepers
I chose to keep Larry Johnson and Rudi Johnson. I love RBs that get the carries at the stripe. LJ is too young and talented not to keep despite his contract issue at the time. Other options I had were Tom Brady and Marvin Harrison.

First Round
I wanted an RB badly in case LJ didn’t play. I was targeting Cedric Benson because he should fit the bill of a RB that doesn’t lose red zone carries, plus the fact that he’s young. Adrian Peterson and Brian Westbrook were off the board. Travis Henry, Marshawn Lynch, and Benson were there. I decided against the win now approach with Henry, and took Benson. I think this is the better pick in the long run. Time will tell.

Second Round
I had three RBs so I wanted to go WR. My choices were Chad Johnson, Torry Holt, Roy Williams, Reggie Wayne, Javon Walker, and Housh. I went Ocho Cinco. I like the fact that he put aside money for his endzone celebrations. Wayne may have been the better pick, but Indy will probably have the division wrapped up by the fantasy playoffs.

Third Round
I wanted another WR here. Boldin just went off the board. I had the option of Andre Johnson, Plax, Randy Moss, or Lee Evans. As much as I like Moss, I was scared off. I went with Andre Johnson hoping Shaub will target him early and often. Andre Johnson.

Fourth Round
I consider Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Brees, Bulger, Tom Brady, and McNabb to be a cut above the rest of the QBs this year. I wanted one of the six. Manning, Palmer, Brees, and Bulger came off the board. I grabbed Brady here. I don’t usually take a QB early, but in an 8 man league, I didn’t want to be left without one of the elite QBs.

Fifth Round
I wanted another RB. The WRs at this point weren’t that attractive. Santana Moss, Darrell Jackson, etc. didn’t do anything for me. Jamal Lewis, DeAngelo Williams, Cadillac Williams, and others were available. I chose to go with DeAngelo Williams because I like his upside. This may be the last year to keep Rudi, so he’s a potential keeper with LJ and Benson next year.

Sixth Round
I was that guy. Every year there is a guy that goes Defense before anyone else. I’m usually not that guy. I took a look at the RBs and WRs avaialble and decided that I get a D that’s going to be more consistent scoring big points. I took Chicago D off the board. Baltimore D went the same round, but I failed to start a big time D run. That’s probably because these two defense are on a different level than the rest

Seventh Round
I needed to address my WR situation since I only had two. I really like Mark Clayton this year so he was my selection.

Eight Round
Since my 3rd WR isn’t that strong, I wanted a solid 4th WR. Laveranues Coles is coming off a solid season and is a great value in what’s essentially the 10th round. Between Coles and Clayton I am pretty covered at 3rd WR.

Ninth Round
I wanted to add to my RB corps. I was pretty surprised that a talented rookie RB like Brandon Jackson was available. I made it so he wasn’t any more.

Tenth Round
I could have went WR here or reached for a RB, but I noticed that Matt Hasselbeck was available. I know I had TB already, but Hass was too good of a value to pass up here.

Eleventh Round
The RBs left were garbage. The WRs weren’t much better. I was, however, able to snag a starting WR from a pass happy team. Philly’s Kevin Curtis took on the role of 5th WR on my squad.

Twelfth Round
I assumed now was as good of time as any to take my TE. Unless you’re getting Gates, the rest are pretty much a crap shoot. Gonzo still has potential, but I think he’s slowing a bit. I took a guy who I think will bounce back with his QB. I grabbed Heath Miller.

Thirteenth Round
I looked at my roster and decided that I didn’t have a fat guy. I wanted a fat guy on my team. LenDale White answered that call. Seriously though, I don’t like this guy, but he does have some potential since he’s got talent if he’ll do a crunch every now and again.

Fourteenth Round
I enjoyed drafting a Titan so much that I decided to take LenWhale’s teammate Brandon Jones to comlete my WR corps. However, I have since dropped him to take Atlanta Defense. Chicago opens up against San Diego so I didn’t like that matchup. Atlanta plays Minnesota, which should be more fruitful.

Fifteenth Round
It was the last round, which to me means it’s time to pick a Kicker. I chose Stephen Gostkowski because I think New England will have a high powered offense this year. Plus I can call him Ghost Face Killa. I have also cut him because of his preseason woes. I picked up David Akers.

It’s an eight man league so the teams are bloated, but here’s my squad:

Brady
Hasselbeck
LJ
Rudi Johnson
Cedric Benson
DeAngelo Williams
Brandon Jackson
LenDale White
Chad Johnson
Andre Johnson
Mark Clayton
Laveranues Coles
Kevin Curtis
Heath Miller
David Akers
CHI DEF
ATL DEF

Here’s my take. I am tired of having old RBs and WRs. Each year I seem to have a few of them. This year youth was served. Having Benson, DeAngelo Williams, and Brandon Jackson give me keeper options for next year. If a couple of them emerge, I have trade potential for someone hurting for keeper RBs. My WRs are good, not great. If Andre Johnson can finally get some TDs I’ll be OK. I really think Kevin Curtis has great potential if McNabb stays healthy. Coles is the only old guy on my team. I love my QBs. Tom Brady could have a monster year with all the weapons they added. Hasselbeck, even in an 8 man league, is still a great backup. Heath Miller could be a steal at TE. If not, I just get rid of him and grab someone from the waiver wire. David Akers should be good while McNabb is healthy. If not I play the matchup game. No big deal. I love having a stud Defense. Chicago should be a plug and play almost every week. No need to play the matchup game (although I’m doing it Week 1).

How did I do in your opinion? Did I make any costly mistakes? I’d love to hear any feeback, pro and con.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

Each year there are guys who fall way short of expectations. Sometimes it’s because of age. Other times it may be a fluke factor. Last year I was decent prediction sleepers, but did quite well picking Trent Green, Tiki Barber, Santana Moss, and Jason Witten to not meet their expectations.

Some I’m hoping to do the same this year.

Quarterback
I’ll start at the Quarterback position. Obviously the biggest bust will be Michael Vick, who had excellent fantasty numbers last year.

My pick this year is Vince Young. Not just because of the Madden Curse. Yahoo has him ranked 7th among QBs. Sporting News is a little more conservative at 11th. CBS Sportsline has him 8th. I don’t question Young’s talent. I question the talent around him. The running game is a mess with a fat, lazy guy and a soft, oft-injured guy. Not to mention his stats last year just weren’t worthy of a Top 8 QB. He averaged 159 yards/start passing. He did make up for it with 40.6 yards rushing per game. His 12 passing TDs (less than one per game) were aided by 7 rushing TDS (over half a TD per game). He also threw 13 picks and lost 3 fumbles. Young is projected to throw for 2900 yards, rush for 840 yards, have 16 TD passes and run for 9 more. I just don’t see it.
Prediction: 2800 passing yards, 650 rushing yards, 16 TDs, 6 rushing TDs, 20 INTs

Running Back
I’m sticking in the AFC South for my RB Bust pick. I don’t see anyway Maurice Jones-Drew comes close to his rookie production. Yahoo has him projected to be the 15th best RB next year (ahead of Willis McGahee, Edge, Cedric Benson, and others). CBS Sportsline has him ranked 14th (ahead of Benson, Edge, and Ronnie Brown). Yahoo projects him to have 1264 yards and 12 TDs. I’m not buying that. He’ll be a decent RB again, but he still has to share with Fred Taylor. If you’re thinking MJD is going to be a solid as he was in the 2nd half of last year, you’re going to be disappointed.
Prediction: 1100 total yards, 8 rushing & receiving TDs

Wide Receiver
I’m going over to the NFC for this one. I’m talking Torry Holt. He’s 31, which isn’t terrible for WRs, but he’s not getting any younger. Throw in offseason knee surgery, and the questions start. Yahoo has him ranked 4th (ahead of Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne, etc). CBS Sportsline has him 5th. Yahoo predicts 1200 yards and 9 TDs. Last year he had nearly 1200 yards and 10 TDs. However, 150 of those yards and 3 of those scores came in one game. He only had four 100 yard games last year, and even more importantly one 1 after Week 6. He also only had 3 TDs after Week 6. He averaged 66.1 yards and .3 TDs in the last ten weeks of 2006. That’s an average of 8.4 fantasy points per game. That would project to 1058 yards and 5 TD. It’s not bad, but it’s clearly not #1 WR status. I’d still take him as a #1 WR, but he’s not the same guy he used to be. I think he’ll still get good yardage, but the TDs may be less frequent. Adding Randy McMichael and Drew Bennett to the mix will almost guarantee that.
Prediction: 1100 yards, 7 TDs

Tight End
Torry Holt isn’t going to be the only Big Dog I predict will take a fall this year. I’m predicting Tony Gonzalez to take a step back as well. CBS Sportsline has him ranked 2nd. Yahoo has him ranked 3rd (Todd Heap jumped him). Gonzo had 900 yards and 5 TDs. The yardage total was quite good, but the TD dip has to be concerning. The 5 TDs came in 3 games, which is even worse. He only cracked 70 yards 5 times. 6 times he was held below 40 yards. He’s also 31 this year. The KC line took a blow when Will Shields retired. I just get the feeling he’s going to be asked to stay in on pass protection a little more. He’s still a weekly starter, but he’s not even close to Gates territory any more. He’s way back with the pack.
Prediction: 700 yards, 5 TDs

Previous Spotlights
D.J . Hackett
Chris Brown
J.P . Losman
Vincent Jackson
Jerious Norwood
Heath Miller
Alex Smith

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

Partner of USA TODAY Sports Digital Properties