It’s Playoff Time, but I’m still going out on that fantasy football limb.  I will pick three players I think will score more points than a higher profile player.  The scoring is 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard.  First, I’ll recap how I did during the Divisional Round.

Last Week
Brett Favre 19.7 beat Eli Manning +5 18.1 (13.1 plus five spotted points) as I predicted
Laurence Maroney 17.1 beat Brandon Jacobs +2 15.5 (13.5 actual plus two spotted points) as I predicted.
Donald Driver 20.1 beat Vincent Jackson 9.3 WHICH I GOT WRONG.  
Last Week’s Picks:  2-1
Breakdown:  QB: 1-0, RB: 0-1, WR:  0-1
 
Overall Playoff Picks: 3-6
Breakdown:  QB: 1-2, RB 1-2, WR: 1-2  

Overall Record
Regular Picks: 45-49-1
Super Stretch Picks: 12-5
Overall:  57-54-1
Breakdown:  QB: 9-13, RB: 28-19-1, WR: 19-22
 
This Week’s Picks
brady-trophy.jpg
Tom Brady
over Eli Manning +6
I’ll trust that Brady’s ankle will hold up and he’ll have another solid Super Bowl showing.  I think the big stage may be a little too bright for young Eli.  I’ll spot him six points and take the MVP.

brandon-jacobs.jpg
Brandon Jacobs
over Laurence Maroney
Maroney has been lights out.  I think he’ll actually outgain the big man, but I think Jacobs is more likely to hit paydirt. 
 
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Plaxico Burress
 over Randy Moss
I saw Randy’s face on a milk carton this morning.  Aside from his legal issue, Randy has been pretty silent thus far.  I think that may continue on Sunday.  Plax has been a force.  He’s got such a height advantage.  Plus, the time off should help his bumps and bruises. 

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Wild Card Weekend
Divisional Round Playoffs
Conference Title Games

Last round I covered the QBs.  I’ll sum up this round of QB play quickly before turning to the RBs.  Brady wasn’t his normal self.  He made some bad decisions.  In the end, it didn’t cost him.  Philip Rivers showed some poise.  If he can control his emotions better (see Jay Cutler incident, see Colts fans confrontations), he’ll really make the leap next year.  Eli played within himself.  He didn’t make mistakes and took what Green Bay gave him.  He’s really maturing as a QB.  Brett Favre waited until overtime, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, to revert to his old ways.  The interception was horrible.  Just horrible.

OK, time to look at the Running Backs.

maroney.jpg
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI

Leader of the class was Laurence Maroney.  Man, he’s come on of late.  He looked sharp.  When he’s healthy he’s unbelievable.  He’s quick and powerful.  The mantra of pass first, run second seemed to take over the NFL this year.  However, in the playoffs, New England has turned to the run.  Maroney has delivered.  131 total yards and a score.

Brandon Jacobs – What a bruiser.  With a couple weeks to rest, the Patriots could have their hands full with Jacobs.  He’s virtually impossible to stop in short yardage situations.  His yards per carry (3.2) was low, but Green Bay has a solid D.  Finished with 75 total yards and a score.

Ahmad Bradshaw – He’s a real nice compliment to Jacobs.  The G-Men don’t miss a beat when he’s spelling the big man.  Had 72 total yards and a score. 

Kevin Faulk – What can you say about Kevin Faulk?  The guy is just clutch.  When it’s third down and you’re looking to move the sticks, I’m not sure there are many RBs in the league I’d rather rely on.  He has great hands and is shifty enough to make people miss.  Just when you think he’s stopped, he’ll dive for a few extra yards.   Kevin Faulk is as big a reason New England won as anyone else.  His 90 total yards were huge.

Michael Turner – He ran hard, but couldn’t quite make it into the endzone to really pressure the Pats.  Losing LT is tough, but Turner is very capable.  Had 70 total yards.

Ryan Grant - It’s a shame that Grant’s out-of-nowhere season had to end like this.  He couldn’t get it going vs. his old ‘mates.  13 carries for 29 yards (2.2 YPC).  If you take away his 13 yard run, you really get a glimpse at how ineffective he was (12 carries, 16 yards, 1.3 YPC). 

Darren Sproles – Probably the best 3rd string RB in the league.  He sure can make you miss.  His 26 yard run was a beauty.  Had 39 total yards.

LaDainian Tomlinson – LT tried, but was just too injured.  What a shame for a player like LT to have to sit there and watch his team compete for the Super Bowl without being able to help.  That had to kill him.  Had 6 total yards.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

Me vs. JP – The Results

21 January 2008

The Scoring
.05 points per passing yard
.1 points per rushing yard/receiving yard
4 points for a passing TD
6 points for a rushing/receivign TD
-2 for INTs or Fumbles

JP’s Lineup
Tom Brady 12.25
Ryan Grant 2.6
Brandon Jacobs 13.5
Greg Jennings 1.4
Vincent Jackson 9.3
Amani Toomer 4.2
Ben Watson 0.8
Total – 44.05

My Lineup
Brett Favre 15.7
LaDainian Tomlinson 0.6
Laurence Maroney 19.1
Randy Moss 3.2
Wes Welker 11.6
Plaxico Burress 15.4
Donald Lee 9.5
Total – 75.1

Tom Brady saved fantasy football owners all season long.  The magic just wasn’t there this week.  Ryan Grant and Greg Jennings picked the wrong week to go cold.  JP does have horrible fantasy football luck.  Laurence Maroney and Wes Welker were money.  Plax played an unbelievable game.  Donald Lee had a surprising score.  I took Round 1.

JP will look for payback in the Super Bowl.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

I don’t know about you, but I still have the fantasy football itch.  To scratch that itch I’ve decided to challenge my best friend to a playoff fantasy football battle.  The sweet part about this is not only is it fantasy football, which I love, but it involved a fantasy football draft, which I also love. 

The lineups consist of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, and a TE.  I’ve always wanted to be in a league that doesn’t feature kickers, so this is my taste of that.  Wanting to keep it simple, I ditched DSTs as well.  After drafting the team, I noticed there was a flaw.  I really should have expanded to include three or four bench spots because once you fill your quarterback spot, for example, your opponent doesn’t have to draft one until the final round.  I intend to bring this back next year so I’ll make offseason adjustments.

The scoring is simple:
.05 points per passing yard
.1 points per rushing yard/receiving yard
4 points for a passing TD
6 points for a rushing/receivign TD
-2 for INTs or Fumbles

I went with a snake draft format.  Since JP is the guest, I let him decide if he wanted to pick first or second.  He chose first and went with Tom Brady.  I followed up with Randy Moss and Laurence Maroney.  He countered with Ryan Grant and Greg Jennings.  I turned to Wes Welker and gambled on LT.  He countered with Ben Watson and Vincent Jackson.  I went Plaxico Burress and Brett Favre.  He rounded out his team with Brandon Jacobs and Amani Toomer.  I closed with Donald Lee.

JP’s Lineup
Tom Brady
Ryan Grant
Brandon Jacobs
Greg Jennings
Vincent Jackson
Amani Toomer
Ben Watson

My Lineup
Brett Favre
LaDainian Tomlinson
Laurence Maroney
Randy Moss
Wes Welker
Plaxico Burress
Donald Lee

I’ll report back next week to let you know who won the battle.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

It’s Playoff Time, but I’m still going out on that fantasy football limb. I will pick three players I think will score more points than a higher profile player. The scoring is 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. First, I’ll recap how I did during the Divisional Round.

Last Week
Peyton Manning 31.5 beat Eli Manning 19.35 (16.35 actual plus 3 spotted points) WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Marion Barber III 19.8 beat Maurice Jones-Drew 6.7 as I predicted.
Nate Burleson 3.3 beat Jabar Gaffney 2.6 WHICH I GOT WRONG.

This Week’s Picks:
Overall: 1-2
Breakdown: QB: 0-1, RB: 1-0, WR: 0-1

Overall Playoff Picks: 1-5
Breakdown: QB: 0-2, RB 1-1, WR: 0-2

Overall Record
Regular Picks: 43-48-1
Super Stretch Picks: 12-5
Overall: 55-53-1
Breakdown: QB: 8-13, RB: 28-18-1, WR: 18-22

This Week’s Picks
Brett Favre over Eli Manning +5
It’s getting harder to pick these as the pool keeps shrinking. Tom Brady would require way too much of a spread than I feel comforatable with so I’ll go Brett vs. Peyton’s brother in their head-to-head matchup for the Super Bowl. They are both one step away. Favre has to realize that this could be his last chance to make it. Who knows how next year will turn out. I think he’ll another game for the ages to ensure he’s playing on Feb. 3rd.

Laurence Maroney over Brandon Jacobs +2
Judging by the season stats I shouldn’t spot Jacobs, but Maroney was AWESOME last week. I think they will continue to utilize him as he seems 100% finally. Green Bay did a number on Seattle’s pathetic running game. I can see them slowing down the G-Men attack, especially if they get to scoring in bunches again.

Vincent Jackson over Donald Driver
With San Diego banged up, Vincent Jackson will again be featured more prominently in their attack. They are likely going to be playing from behind so they should pass often. I see Driver continuing to be ignored in the offense. Favre spreads it around too much to count on the guy who isn’t his primary target.

Previous Out on a Limb Picks
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Wild Card Weekend
Divisional Round Playoffs

It’s Playoff Time, but I’m still going out on that fantasy football limb. I will pick three players I think will score more points than a higher profile player. The scoring is 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. First, I’ll recap how I did during Wild Card Weekend.

Last Week
Ben Roethlisberger 26.15 destroyed Jeff Garcia 16.55 (14.55 actual plus two spotted points) WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew 30.2 destroyed Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts 13.4 (11.4 actual plus two spotted points) WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Plaxico Burress 3.8 beat Joey Galloway 0.5 WHICH I GOT WRONG.

Guess I stretced too far.

This Week’s Picks: 0-3
Overall: 0-3
Breakdown: QB: 0-1, RB: 0-1, WR: 0-1

Overall Playoff Picks: 0-3
Overall: 0-3
Breakdown: QB: 0-1, RB 0-1, WR: 0-1

Overall Record
Regular Picks: 42-46-1
Super Stretch Picks: 12-5
Overall: 54-51-1
Breakdown: QB: 8-12, RB: 27-18-1, WR: 18-21

This Week’s Picks 

peyton-eli-manning.jpg
Photo courtesy of Sporting News/Icon SMI

Eli Manning
+3 over Peyton Manning
Eli vs. Peyton. Peyton vs. Eli. In this epic battle of brotherhood, I’ll go with the younger Manning (with three spotted points). I think Indy will utilize Joseph Addai and the ground game to keep LT at bay. New York will have to play catch up against Dallas, which will force them to the air. 

 Marion Barber III over Maurice Jones-Drew
There are a lot of similarities between these two backs. Both share the backfield with a talented running back. They both have a nose for the endzone. I like MB3 better than MJD this weekend. Barber gets to play at home. Barber faces the New York Giants and not the New England Patriots. 

 Jabar Gaffney over Nate Burleson
Jacksonville will try to shut down Randy Moss and Wes Welker. That mean Gaffney should be able to have a solid game. Burleson will have to face a tough Green Bay secondary.

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Wild Card Weekend

brady-and-manning.jpgfavre-and-romo.jpg
    Albert Dickson/TSN/ZUMA Press/Icon SMI                James D. Smith/Icon SMI

Tom Brady.  Peyton Manning.  Brett Favre.  Tony Romo.

What do these four quarterbacks have in common?  They all had amazing regular season, and are watching this weekend’s playoff games in anticipation of who they will face next week.  They all had over 4000 yards passing and 28 TDs.  They have received the lion’s share of the credit for their team’s success.  However, they aren’t the only Quarterbacks who had amazing seasons.

The Expected
Drew Brees – Brees is coming off three solid seasons, but he had career highs in both passing yards and passing TDs this year.  He also had careers highs in attempts, completions, completion percentage, and unfortunately INTs.  The best part for fantasy owners is he came on down the stretch.

Carson Palmer – I thought Carson Palmer was going to have an amazing season.  I still think he was probably a better deal than Peyton Manning considering he probably went in the 3rd round while Manning may have gone in the 1st.  Palmer’s TDs are down from the past two years, but he did throw for a career high 4131 yards this year.  He was sacked 19 fewer times, which takes a little fear away from fantasy owners of their guy getting hurt.  His team is a mess, but Palmer is the constant.

Pleasant Surprises
Matt Hasselbeck – Hasselbeck has had decent years in the past, but he realy stepped up his game this year going for career highs in passing yards, TDs, completions, and attempts. What’s sweet is, despite all of those attempts (562) he only threw 12 picks.

Ben Roethlisberger – His yardage wasn’t great (3154), but you have to figure in that he plays in Pittsburgh.  However, he threw for 32 TDs, which was good for third in the league behind Brady and Romo and just ahead of Peyton.  He had 14 more TDs than his previous career high.

Major Surprise
Kurt Warner – Many figured a Arizona QB would have a solid season. I’m sure few thought it would be Kurt Warner. Despite playing in just 14 games this year, Warner threw for 3417 yards and 27 TDs. His 27 TDs is equal to the number of TDs he threw in his previous five seasons. Like Brees, he did a lot of damage down the stretch.

Out of Nowhere
Derek Anderson – If anyone tells you that they saw this coming, they are complete liars. I don’t even think Derek would have predicted that he’d throw for 3787 yards and 29 passing TDs and 3 rushing TDs. Those are Brett Favre numbers. Not 6th round draft picks that couldn’t make it in Baltimore. He faded a little down the stretch, which took away some of the warm and fuzzies that his fantasy owners felt, but come on. If you lucked into DA from the waiver wire, you truly found fantasy gold.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

It’s Playoff Time, but I’m still going out on that fantasy football limb. I will pick three players I think will score more points than a higher profile player. The scoring is 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. First, I’ll recap how I did in the season finale.

Last Week
Kurt Warner 28.9 beat Tom Brady 25.4 as I predicted.
Laurence Maroney 18.6 beat Marion Barber 0.1 as I predicted.
Jamal Lewis 12.9 beat Joseph Addai 3.5 as I predicted.
Anquan Boldin 11.6 over Reggie Wayne 8.7 as I predicted.
Brandon Marshall 20.5 beat Andre Johnson 7.4 as I predicted.

Super Stretch
Ryan Grant 11.7 beat Najeh Davenport 8.7 WHICH I GOT WRONG.

Regular Picks: 5-0
Super Stretch Picks: 0-1
Overall: 5-1
Breakdown: QB: 1-0, RB 2-1, WR: 2-0

Season Record
Regular Picks: 42-43-1
Super Stretch Picks: 12-5
Overall: 54-48-1
Breakdown: QB: 8-11, RB: 27-17-1, WR: 18-20

This Week’s Picks

jeff-garcia.jpg
Photo courtesy of Cliff Welch/Icon SMI
 
Jeff Garcia +2 over Ben Roethlisberger
I have a feeling that Jacksonville will make it difficult on Big Ben, especially if weather plays a role. Jeff Garcia should have better weather and facing a weaker defense. That combo should be enough to get me a victory. I’ll give myself two spotted points. 

Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts +2 over Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew
I’ll take two spotted points and choose the Redskin duo over Jacksonville’s two-headed monster. Seattle has a tough defense, but Washington and Portis are on fire. I’ll ride the hot hand. 

Joey Galloway over Plaxico Burress
Ronde Barber will match up with Plaxico. Tiki’s twin will do his best to top his brother’s former team. Joey Galloway is hit or miss, but I see him slipping past the safety for a long TD.

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2007 NFL Lester Awards

2 January 2008

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The NFL regular season has wrapped up, and it’s time to hand out the hardware. There were many players who had impressive seasons, but only the select few were good enough to take home a Lester Award. Let’s get the ceremony started:

MVP: Tom Brady
Just like last year when LaDainian Tomlinson ran away with the award, there really isn’t any competition. He broke Peyton Manning’s record with 50 TD passes. He led the league with 4806 passing yards, which was good for third all-time for a single-season. He led his team to a 16-0 regular season.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Adrian Peterson
There was Adrian Peterson and everybody else. He led the NFC with 1341 rushing yards despite missing two games. He broke the single-game rushing record with 296 against San Diego, which was his second game of 220+ yards. He scored 13 total TDs. His numbers would have been even better if his coach A) utilized him better in the beginning of the season and/or B) wasn’t too stubborn/stupid to make an adjustment after San Francisco came up with a game plan to stop him.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Patrick Willis
He didn’t get the ink that the first two winners, but Willis was just as dominating. His 174 tackles were 33 more than the next closest player (D.J. Williams). That’s over two tackles a game more. He also had four sacks.

Comeback Player of the Year: Kurt Warner
Well, Ricky Williams isn’t going to take home. It’s hard to overlook what Kurt Warner did this year. In 14 games he threw for 3417 yards and 27 TDs, which is as many as he’s thrown in his previous five seasons.

Defensive Player of the Year: DeMarcus Ware
DeMarcus was a terror on Quarterbacks this year racking up an impressive 14 sacks. He also tallied 84 tackles, which was the most by anyone with 10+ sacks.

Most Improved Player: Derek Anderson
Who the heck saw 3787 yards and 29 TDs coming from Anderson?  Surely not the Browns or they wouldn’t have traded next year’s first round pick for Brady Quinn. Clearly not the Ravens or they would have never traded him.

Coach of the Year: Bill Belichick
Love him or hate him, he guided his team to a 16-0 record. He’s not going to win the “Nice Guy” Award, “Best Dressed” Award, or “Sportsmanship” Award, but it’s hard to ignore the season New England had.

All-Lester First Team
Tom Brady
LaDainian Tomlinson
Brian Westbrook
Randy Moss
Terrell Owens
Jason Witten
Rob Bironas

All-Lester Second Team
Tony Romo
Adrian Peterson
Clinton Portis
Braylon Edwards
Reggie Wayne
Tony Gonzalez
Mason Crosby

All-Lester Third Team
Peyton Manning
Joseph Addai
Jamal Lewis
Larry Fitzgerald
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Antonio Gates
Nick Folk

Would you change any of my selections? If so, let me know.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: awards, NFL |

Happy New Year’s!

Fantasy Football Forum
Was this week your championship? How’d you do? My leagues all wrapped up last week so I have nothing to report.

Tracking My NFL Preseason Predictions
I made a bunch of predictions in the preseason. I profiled guys I thought would do well. I also profiled guys I thought wouldn’t meet expectations. Here’s how I did.

Surprises
J.P. Losman – Prediction: 3400 yards, 24 TDs, 16 INTs
Actual: Not worth reporting.
Right-O-Meter: 1

Alex Smith – Prediction: 3000 yards, 20 TDs, 14 INTs
Actual: Not worth reporting.
Right-O-Meter: 1

Chris Brown – Prediction: 1000 total yards, 5 TDs
Actual: 590 total yards, 5 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 6
LenDale had a much better season than I anticipated. Brown did have TDs in four of the last five weeks though.

Jerious Norwood – Prediction: 1200 total yards, 5 TDs
Actual: 892 total yards, 1 TD
Right-O-Meter: 2
He was never used properly. Maybe next year.

D.J. Hackett – Prediction: 80 receptions, 1100 yards, 8 TDs
Actual: Not worth reporting
Right-O-Meter: 1

Vincent Jackson – Prediction: 64 receptions, 1100 yards, 9 TDs
Actual: 623 yards, 3 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 1
He was a chic pick my many a prognasticator. He left many fantasy owners with egg on their face.

Heath Miller – Prediction: 600 yards, 8 TDs
On Pace for : 566 yards, 7 TDs
Actual: 9
He was solid overall, but faded down the stretch.

Disappointments
Vince Young – Prediction: 2800 passing yards, 650 rushing yards, 16
TDs, 6 rushing TDs, 20 INTs
On Pace for: 2546 passing, 395 rushing, 9 passing TDs, 3 rushing, 17 INTs
Actual: 10
My projections weren’t great for VY, but I was right that he would disappoint his fantasy owners.

Maurice Jones-Drew- Prediction: 1100 total yards, 8 rushing & receiving TDs
On Pace for: 1175 total yards, 9 TDs
Actual: 9
My numbers add up because he skipped the last game, but he was pretty solid.

Torry Holt – Prediction: 1100 yards, 7 TDs
Actual: 1189 yards, 7 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 9
Holt was a little better than I projected.

Tony Gonzalez – Prediction: 700 yards, 5 TDs
Actual: 1172 yards, 5 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 6
He had a solid year, but he was drafted higher than he should have been.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

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