It’s Playoff Time, but I’m still going out on that fantasy football limb. I will pick three players I think will score more points than a higher profile player. The scoring is 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. First, I’ll recap how I did during Wild Card Weekend.

Last Week
Ben Roethlisberger 26.15 destroyed Jeff Garcia 16.55 (14.55 actual plus two spotted points) WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew 30.2 destroyed Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts 13.4 (11.4 actual plus two spotted points) WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Plaxico Burress 3.8 beat Joey Galloway 0.5 WHICH I GOT WRONG.

Guess I stretced too far.

This Week’s Picks: 0-3
Overall: 0-3
Breakdown: QB: 0-1, RB: 0-1, WR: 0-1

Overall Playoff Picks: 0-3
Overall: 0-3
Breakdown: QB: 0-1, RB 0-1, WR: 0-1

Overall Record
Regular Picks: 42-46-1
Super Stretch Picks: 12-5
Overall: 54-51-1
Breakdown: QB: 8-12, RB: 27-18-1, WR: 18-21

This Week’s Picks 

peyton-eli-manning.jpg
Photo courtesy of Sporting News/Icon SMI

Eli Manning
+3 over Peyton Manning
Eli vs. Peyton. Peyton vs. Eli. In this epic battle of brotherhood, I’ll go with the younger Manning (with three spotted points). I think Indy will utilize Joseph Addai and the ground game to keep LT at bay. New York will have to play catch up against Dallas, which will force them to the air. 

 Marion Barber III over Maurice Jones-Drew
There are a lot of similarities between these two backs. Both share the backfield with a talented running back. They both have a nose for the endzone. I like MB3 better than MJD this weekend. Barber gets to play at home. Barber faces the New York Giants and not the New England Patriots. 

 Jabar Gaffney over Nate Burleson
Jacksonville will try to shut down Randy Moss and Wes Welker. That mean Gaffney should be able to have a solid game. Burleson will have to face a tough Green Bay secondary.

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Wild Card Weekend

brady-and-manning.jpgfavre-and-romo.jpg
    Albert Dickson/TSN/ZUMA Press/Icon SMI                James D. Smith/Icon SMI

Tom Brady.  Peyton Manning.  Brett Favre.  Tony Romo.

What do these four quarterbacks have in common?  They all had amazing regular season, and are watching this weekend’s playoff games in anticipation of who they will face next week.  They all had over 4000 yards passing and 28 TDs.  They have received the lion’s share of the credit for their team’s success.  However, they aren’t the only Quarterbacks who had amazing seasons.

The Expected
Drew Brees – Brees is coming off three solid seasons, but he had career highs in both passing yards and passing TDs this year.  He also had careers highs in attempts, completions, completion percentage, and unfortunately INTs.  The best part for fantasy owners is he came on down the stretch.

Carson Palmer – I thought Carson Palmer was going to have an amazing season.  I still think he was probably a better deal than Peyton Manning considering he probably went in the 3rd round while Manning may have gone in the 1st.  Palmer’s TDs are down from the past two years, but he did throw for a career high 4131 yards this year.  He was sacked 19 fewer times, which takes a little fear away from fantasy owners of their guy getting hurt.  His team is a mess, but Palmer is the constant.

Pleasant Surprises
Matt Hasselbeck – Hasselbeck has had decent years in the past, but he realy stepped up his game this year going for career highs in passing yards, TDs, completions, and attempts. What’s sweet is, despite all of those attempts (562) he only threw 12 picks.

Ben Roethlisberger – His yardage wasn’t great (3154), but you have to figure in that he plays in Pittsburgh.  However, he threw for 32 TDs, which was good for third in the league behind Brady and Romo and just ahead of Peyton.  He had 14 more TDs than his previous career high.

Major Surprise
Kurt Warner – Many figured a Arizona QB would have a solid season. I’m sure few thought it would be Kurt Warner. Despite playing in just 14 games this year, Warner threw for 3417 yards and 27 TDs. His 27 TDs is equal to the number of TDs he threw in his previous five seasons. Like Brees, he did a lot of damage down the stretch.

Out of Nowhere
Derek Anderson – If anyone tells you that they saw this coming, they are complete liars. I don’t even think Derek would have predicted that he’d throw for 3787 yards and 29 passing TDs and 3 rushing TDs. Those are Brett Favre numbers. Not 6th round draft picks that couldn’t make it in Baltimore. He faded a little down the stretch, which took away some of the warm and fuzzies that his fantasy owners felt, but come on. If you lucked into DA from the waiver wire, you truly found fantasy gold.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

It’s Playoff Time, but I’m still going out on that fantasy football limb. I will pick three players I think will score more points than a higher profile player. The scoring is 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. First, I’ll recap how I did in the season finale.

Last Week
Kurt Warner 28.9 beat Tom Brady 25.4 as I predicted.
Laurence Maroney 18.6 beat Marion Barber 0.1 as I predicted.
Jamal Lewis 12.9 beat Joseph Addai 3.5 as I predicted.
Anquan Boldin 11.6 over Reggie Wayne 8.7 as I predicted.
Brandon Marshall 20.5 beat Andre Johnson 7.4 as I predicted.

Super Stretch
Ryan Grant 11.7 beat Najeh Davenport 8.7 WHICH I GOT WRONG.

Regular Picks: 5-0
Super Stretch Picks: 0-1
Overall: 5-1
Breakdown: QB: 1-0, RB 2-1, WR: 2-0

Season Record
Regular Picks: 42-43-1
Super Stretch Picks: 12-5
Overall: 54-48-1
Breakdown: QB: 8-11, RB: 27-17-1, WR: 18-20

This Week’s Picks

jeff-garcia.jpg
Photo courtesy of Cliff Welch/Icon SMI
 
Jeff Garcia +2 over Ben Roethlisberger
I have a feeling that Jacksonville will make it difficult on Big Ben, especially if weather plays a role. Jeff Garcia should have better weather and facing a weaker defense. That combo should be enough to get me a victory. I’ll give myself two spotted points. 

Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts +2 over Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew
I’ll take two spotted points and choose the Redskin duo over Jacksonville’s two-headed monster. Seattle has a tough defense, but Washington and Portis are on fire. I’ll ride the hot hand. 

Joey Galloway over Plaxico Burress
Ronde Barber will match up with Plaxico. Tiki’s twin will do his best to top his brother’s former team. Joey Galloway is hit or miss, but I see him slipping past the safety for a long TD.

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2007 NFL Lester Awards

2 January 2008

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The NFL regular season has wrapped up, and it’s time to hand out the hardware. There were many players who had impressive seasons, but only the select few were good enough to take home a Lester Award. Let’s get the ceremony started:

MVP: Tom Brady
Just like last year when LaDainian Tomlinson ran away with the award, there really isn’t any competition. He broke Peyton Manning’s record with 50 TD passes. He led the league with 4806 passing yards, which was good for third all-time for a single-season. He led his team to a 16-0 regular season.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Adrian Peterson
There was Adrian Peterson and everybody else. He led the NFC with 1341 rushing yards despite missing two games. He broke the single-game rushing record with 296 against San Diego, which was his second game of 220+ yards. He scored 13 total TDs. His numbers would have been even better if his coach A) utilized him better in the beginning of the season and/or B) wasn’t too stubborn/stupid to make an adjustment after San Francisco came up with a game plan to stop him.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Patrick Willis
He didn’t get the ink that the first two winners, but Willis was just as dominating. His 174 tackles were 33 more than the next closest player (D.J. Williams). That’s over two tackles a game more. He also had four sacks.

Comeback Player of the Year: Kurt Warner
Well, Ricky Williams isn’t going to take home. It’s hard to overlook what Kurt Warner did this year. In 14 games he threw for 3417 yards and 27 TDs, which is as many as he’s thrown in his previous five seasons.

Defensive Player of the Year: DeMarcus Ware
DeMarcus was a terror on Quarterbacks this year racking up an impressive 14 sacks. He also tallied 84 tackles, which was the most by anyone with 10+ sacks.

Most Improved Player: Derek Anderson
Who the heck saw 3787 yards and 29 TDs coming from Anderson?  Surely not the Browns or they wouldn’t have traded next year’s first round pick for Brady Quinn. Clearly not the Ravens or they would have never traded him.

Coach of the Year: Bill Belichick
Love him or hate him, he guided his team to a 16-0 record. He’s not going to win the “Nice Guy” Award, “Best Dressed” Award, or “Sportsmanship” Award, but it’s hard to ignore the season New England had.

All-Lester First Team
Tom Brady
LaDainian Tomlinson
Brian Westbrook
Randy Moss
Terrell Owens
Jason Witten
Rob Bironas

All-Lester Second Team
Tony Romo
Adrian Peterson
Clinton Portis
Braylon Edwards
Reggie Wayne
Tony Gonzalez
Mason Crosby

All-Lester Third Team
Peyton Manning
Joseph Addai
Jamal Lewis
Larry Fitzgerald
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Antonio Gates
Nick Folk

Would you change any of my selections? If so, let me know.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: awards, NFL |

Happy New Year’s!

Fantasy Football Forum
Was this week your championship? How’d you do? My leagues all wrapped up last week so I have nothing to report.

Tracking My NFL Preseason Predictions
I made a bunch of predictions in the preseason. I profiled guys I thought would do well. I also profiled guys I thought wouldn’t meet expectations. Here’s how I did.

Surprises
J.P. Losman – Prediction: 3400 yards, 24 TDs, 16 INTs
Actual: Not worth reporting.
Right-O-Meter: 1

Alex Smith – Prediction: 3000 yards, 20 TDs, 14 INTs
Actual: Not worth reporting.
Right-O-Meter: 1

Chris Brown – Prediction: 1000 total yards, 5 TDs
Actual: 590 total yards, 5 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 6
LenDale had a much better season than I anticipated. Brown did have TDs in four of the last five weeks though.

Jerious Norwood – Prediction: 1200 total yards, 5 TDs
Actual: 892 total yards, 1 TD
Right-O-Meter: 2
He was never used properly. Maybe next year.

D.J. Hackett – Prediction: 80 receptions, 1100 yards, 8 TDs
Actual: Not worth reporting
Right-O-Meter: 1

Vincent Jackson – Prediction: 64 receptions, 1100 yards, 9 TDs
Actual: 623 yards, 3 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 1
He was a chic pick my many a prognasticator. He left many fantasy owners with egg on their face.

Heath Miller – Prediction: 600 yards, 8 TDs
On Pace for : 566 yards, 7 TDs
Actual: 9
He was solid overall, but faded down the stretch.

Disappointments
Vince Young – Prediction: 2800 passing yards, 650 rushing yards, 16
TDs, 6 rushing TDs, 20 INTs
On Pace for: 2546 passing, 395 rushing, 9 passing TDs, 3 rushing, 17 INTs
Actual: 10
My projections weren’t great for VY, but I was right that he would disappoint his fantasy owners.

Maurice Jones-Drew- Prediction: 1100 total yards, 8 rushing & receiving TDs
On Pace for: 1175 total yards, 9 TDs
Actual: 9
My numbers add up because he skipped the last game, but he was pretty solid.

Torry Holt – Prediction: 1100 yards, 7 TDs
Actual: 1189 yards, 7 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 9
Holt was a little better than I projected.

Tony Gonzalez – Prediction: 700 yards, 5 TDs
Actual: 1172 yards, 5 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 6
He had a solid year, but he was drafted higher than he should have been.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

NFL Week 17 Fill-ins

28 December 2007

Some of you may still be in it this weekend.  If your team wrapped everything up, they may rest some players.  I’ll try to uncover some guys you can plug in.

QB
Todd Collins
- Washington is playing for their playoff lives.  Dallas doesn’t have the greatest secondardy.  Terence Newman may not play.  Todd Collins can be your savior.
Cleo Lemon -  Miami gets to finish off with Cincinnati.  Even Miami could put up decent numbers against them.

RB
Najeh Davenport - I jokingly mentioned him last week following his strong Thursday night performance.  His matchup isn’t great, but if you lost Willie Parker or McGahee for the year, Najeh is a nice play.
Kenton Keith-  I see a light load for Addai this week.  Kenton could be a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners.
WR

santana-moss.jpg
Photo courtesy of James D. Smith/Icon SMI

Santana Moss -  He’s healthy and in a nice groove with Todd Collins.  I see no reason why he wouldn’t deliver this week. 
Ted Ginn, Jr. -  I have a feeling Ginn, Jr. is going to finish the season on a high note against Cincinnati.

TE
Zach Miller - JaMarcus Russell will use Zach Miller as a security blanket this weke.

K
Shayne Graham
-  He should be busy agaisnt Miami.

DEF
Washington 
- Two words.  Brad Johnson.

I’m going back out on that fantasy football limb. I will pick five players I believe will score more points this week than a higher profile player. The scoring will be 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. I will also do a Super Stretch Pick where I take a real longshot. First, I’ll recap last week.

Last Week
Jay Cutler 11.95 beat Vince Young 8.4 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Frank Gore (19.2) and Ryan Grant (16.9) combined (36.1) to beatLaDainian Tomlinson 17.4 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Brian Westbrook 10.9 beat Adrian Peterson 6.8 (4.8 acutal plus 2 spotted) as I predicted.
Hines Ward 5.9 beat Torry Holt 4.1 as I predicted.
Donald Driver 6.2 (3.2 plus 3 spotted points) beat Greg Jennings 4.2 WHICH I GOT WRONG.

Super Stretch
Clinton Portis 23.15 beat Kenny Watson 21.0 WHICH I GOT WRONG.

Regular Picks: 2-3
Super Stretch Picks: 0-1
Overall: 2-4
Breakdown: QB: 0-1, RB 1-2, WR: 1-1

Season Record
Regular Picks: 37-43-1
Super Stretch Picks: 12-4
Overall: 49-47-1
Breakdown: QB: 7-11, RB: 25-16-1, WR: 16-20

This Week’s Picks 
Kurt Warner over Tom Brady
Tom will get the Pats out to an early lead, get the record, and check out. Warner will keep throwing and throwing and throwing…. 

Laurence Maroney over Marion Barber
Former Golden Gophers squaring off. Maroney will continue his December surge. MB3 will face a hungry Washington team with little on the line. 

Jamal Lewis over Joseph Addai
Jamal will cap a fine season against San Francisco while Addai will likely be hitting the showers early 

Anquan Boldin over Reggie Wayne
See Exhibit A Kurt Warner for Boldin and Exhibit B Joseph Addai for Wayne. 

Brandon Marshall over Andre Johnson
Marshall has been on fire. Johnson has been on fire. Who would you rather face? Minnesota or Jacksonville. Pretty easy answer.

SUPER STRETCH 
Najeh Davenport over Ryan Grant
Grant will probably have an early exit as the Pack prepare for the playoffs.

What did you think of my predictions? Do you have any fantasy upsets in mind? Please leave your comments.

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Merry Christmas

Fantasy Football Forum
Did you win your championship? I had four matchups this weekend. One was for the championship on NFL.com with some friends from the Sporting News. I was in two third place games. One was a Yahoo public league that I joined super early because I had the itch and the Sporting News mock drafts weren’t open. The other was a league of friends from college and past co-workers. Finally, in my money league I was playing in the 5th place game.

In the NFL.com championship, I made the mistake of benching Dallas Clark. I figured Anthony Gonzalez was taking Clark’s numbers so I went with Owen Daniels. I put Aaron Stecker in the lineup briefly before re-inserting LenDale White. I was fortunate enough to have TENN D, Randy Moss, and Reggie Wayne. I was up big, but was facing LT and Gates. Gates fizzled at the end, and it was too much for even LT to overcome. I was happy to see I won the title.

In my public league I put Kurt Warner in the starting spot after Romo hurt his thumb. When I found out he was OK, I went back to Romo. Dance with who brought you there. Mistake. Ryan Grant, Dwayne Bowe, and TENN D did the trick though, as I added a third place trophy to my Yahoo trophy case.

In my friend’s league I got off to a huge start with T.O., MB3, and Steven Jackson. Tony Gonzalez sealed the deal as I won that third place trophy as well. Incidentally, a guy in this league named his team Future League Champ after the draft. He lived up to the billing. Impressive.

In my keeper league, I struggled during the year, as you very may know. Andre Johnson, Isaac Bruce, Marshawn Lynch, and Kolby Smith led the way as I won the Toilet Bowl. At least I went out a winner. To be honest, I probably wouldn’t have started Bruce this week, but didn’t make any moves after I was eliminated from the actual playoffs.
Learning time: If you are eliminated from the playoffs, but are still allowed to play in the consolation playoffs, do not make any roster moves. You should leave the players to the people who are actually competiting for the championship.

Tracking My NFL Preseason Predictions
I made a bunch of predictions in the preseason. I profiled guys I thought would do well. I also profiled guys I thought wouldn’t meet expectations. Here are my preseason predictions are going.

Surprises
J.P. Losman – Prediction: 3400 yards, 24 TDs, 16 INTs
On Pace for: Not worth reporting.
Right-O-Meter: 1
Did not play.

Alex Smith – Prediction: 3000 yards, 20 TDs, 14 INTs
On Pace for: Not worth reporting.
Right-O-Meter: 1
Did not play.

Chris Brown – Prediction: 1000 total yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 608 total yards, 4 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 5
Only ran for 15 yards, but the TD helped.

Jerious Norwood – Prediction: 1200 total yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 859 yards, 1 TD
Right-O-Meter: 2
29 total yards. Lovely.

D.J. Hackett – Prediction: 80 receptions, 1100 yards, 8 TDs
On Pace for: Not worth reporting
Right-O-Meter: 1
Did not play.

Vincent Jackson – Prediction: 64 receptions, 1100 yards, 9 TDs
On Pace for: 651 yards, 3 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 1
Missed the boat on this guy. He did have four catches for 46 yards, which is good for him.

Heath Miller – Prediction: 600 yards, 8 TDs
On Pace for : 582 yards, 7 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 9
Heath did not come to play in Week 16. He had just 7 more yards than me.

Disappointments
Vince Young – Prediction: 2800 passing yards, 650 rushing yards, 16
TDs, 6 rushing TDs, 20 INTs
On Pace for: 2548 passing, 401 rushing, 10 passing TDs, 3 rushing, 18 INTs
Right-O-Meter: 10
166 passing yards. 1 Rushing yard. Brutal.

Maurice Jones-Drew- Prediction: 1100 total yards, 8 rushing & receiving TDs
On Pace for: 1253 total yards, 10 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 5
140 yards and a score. Way to deliver in the Super Bowl.

Torry Holt – Prediction: 1100 yards, 7 TDs
On Pace for: 1169 yards, 7 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 10
41 yards put him right on line with my prediction.

Tony Gonzalez – Prediction: 700 yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 1182 yards, 5 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 5
At least I have the TDs right. 137 yard in the Super Bowl. Nice.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

Let’s face it.  Your season should be over.  If you’re still going in Week 17, maybe I’ll help you uncover a gem.  I suppose if you’re in a salary cap  league you’re still active so I’ll look at the surprising performers and let you know if they are worth a roster move.

QB
Todd Collins -
Dallas doesn’t have much to play for.  Washington is hungry.  Their WRs are coming on.  I’d roll with Collins in a salary cap league.  He’d be worth so little that you could upgrade elsewhere.  On an actual team, maybe.  If you have Eli as your starter, Todd may be a better play.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.
Tarvaris Jackson - It was nice to see him use his feet for a change.  I don’t see him going to Denver and having a good day though. 
Ruling – Don’t Sweat ’em.

RB
najeh-davenport.jpg
Photo courtesy of JL Dykstra/Icon SMI

Najeh Davenport
-  He mashed last week after Willie Parker broke his leg.  He needs to get more work in for the playoff run.  I’d get him without a doubt.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.
Ahmad Bradshaw - Was his big game a fluke?  Probably.  Will the Giants rest Brandon Jacobs vs. the Pats?  Maybe.  Will I pick up Bradshaw?  Doubtful.  
Ruling:  Don’t Sweat ‘em.

WR
Nate Washington
- His last three catches have been TDs.  He doesn’t catch enough balls though.  He’s had only seven receptions in his last four games.
Ruling:  Don’t Sweat ‘em.
Laurent Robinson - Maybe they are trying to see what the rookie has.  He was solid with 114 yards and a TD.  I’m not seeing a repeat though.
Ruling:  Don’t Sweat ‘em.

TE
Jerramy Stevens -
He had a nice 73 yard, 2 TD game against San Francisco.  If you’re hurting, why not try the hot hand?
Ruling:  Get ‘em.There you have it.  I hope I provided you some good info while you make your fantasy team waiver wire adjustments.

NFL Week 16 Fill-ins

21 December 2007

It’s most likely your Super Bowl.  If you aren’t that lucky, maybe you’re playing for 3rd and your money back.  Maybe you’re just playing for pride.  No matter what, you want to win this week.  If your lineup is hurting, I’m here to offer some other options.

QB
Donovan McNabb
- Chances are you haven’t counted on him for some time.  Well, this week is as good as any as he play New Orleans.  Sure, the Eagles are dead, but they are still playing for pride.  

vince-young.jpg
Photo courtesy of Margaret Bowles/Icon SMI
 
Vince Young - It’s time for VY to shrug off that Madden Curse and put up a solid game agaisnt the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS.  I get the feeling he runs one in this week.

RB
Najeh Davenport - I see him getting 167 total yards and 2 TDs after Willie Parker breaks his leg.  OK, time to get serious.  Here are my real picks. 
Rudi Johnson -  If I had Rudi, I’d hitch my cart to him this weekend against Cleveland.  He’s been mostly junk this year, but I see him coming through huge for those lucky (or unlucky given his earlier play) enough to have him.
Kolby Smith - Since his first start , Kolby hasn’t been all that impressive.  This week he faces Detroit.  I see Kolby getting a TD as a stocking stuffer.
Lamont Jordan - I’m not loving his matchup against Jacksonville, but if you need a warm body, Jordan is your guy.  If you’re really, really hurting Dominic Rhodes may get you a couple points.

WR
Roydell Williams 
-  He’s played well recently averaging 66 yards and a TD the past three weeks.  I think he has a solid game against Detroit.
Kevin Curtis -  The highlight of my fantasy football season this year was starting Curtis in his 11 catch, 221 yard, 3 TD game against Detroilet.  Curtis has only scored twice since that outburst.  I think this is the weekend he returns to the endzone.  Hopefully, he called up Chad Johnson for celebration ideas since with only 6 TDs, Ocho is sure to have some that he won’t get to this year.

TE
Chris Baker - With wet noodle arm Chad Pennington back in the starting lineup, look for Baker to be busy on Sunday. 

K
Shaun Suisham
-  Shaun has 9 FGs over the past 4 weeks, including three in the horrible conditions at Giants Stadium last week.  He’ll find it a little cozier in the Metrodump.

DEF
Arizona
- One word.  Atlanta.
Tennessee - Three words.  New York Jets.
Kansas City - One word.  Detroit.


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