Sure, it’s important to draft well, but every year there are so many disappointments and surprises that seldom a team resembles the one you started with.  I trade more than the average player so I’m not a good comparison, but I didn’t have a single player on my post-draft roster around week 10.

Here’s what I do know.  Those of you who chuckled and mocked people’s selections earlier this year should take note.  Just because the experts say someone is going to have a breakout year doesn’t mean it will come true.  Just because you consider a guy a top notch selection, doesn’t mean it’s going to come true.  Let’s take a look at the top ten scorers at each position and see where they were drafted.

brady-think.jpg
Photo courtesy of Jerome Davis/Icon SMI

QB
Tom Brady – Anywhere from 2nd to 4th QB taken
Tony Romo – Probably 5th-8th QB taken
Brett Favre – 8th-12th QB taken
Derek Anderson – Waiver wire gem
Ben Roethlisberger – Probably 10th-14th QB taken
Peyton Manning – 1st QB taken
Carson Palmer – 2nd-4th QB taken
Matt Hasselbeck – Probably 6th-10th QB taken
Drew Brees – 3rd or 4th QB taken
Jon Kitna – 8th-12th QB taken
Busts:  McNabb, Bulger, Rivers, Leinart, Vince Young

RB
Brian Westbrook – 4th-10th RB taken
LaDainian Tomlinson – 1st RB taken
Adrian Peterson – 12th-16th RB taken
Joseph Addai – 2nd-6th RB taken
Willis McGahee – 8th-16th RB taken 
Marion Barber – 12th-18th RB taken
Clinton Portis – 10th-18th RB taken
Jamal Lewis – 14th-20th RB taken
Reggie Bush – 7th-14th RB taken
Ronnie Brown – 6th-14th RB taken
Busts: Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Travis Henry, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Rudi Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Duece McAllister

WR
Randy Moss – 6th-12th WR taken
Terrell Owens – 4th-8th WR taken
Braylon Edwards – 12th-20th WR taken
T.J. Houshmandzedeh – 5th-10th WR taken
Reggie Wayne – 3rd-8th WR taken
Chad Johnson – 1st-6th WR taken
Larry Fizgerald – 6th-10th WR taken
Wes Welker – 20th-30th WR taken
Greg Jennings – 20th-30th WR taken
Plaxico Burress – 6th-12th WR taken
Busts:  Steve Smith, Marvin Harrison, Andre Johnson, Donald Driver, Torry Holt (somewhat), Lee Evans, Javon Walker, Roy Williams,

TE
Antonio Gates – 1st TE
Kellen Winslow – 2nd-6th TE
Jason Witten – 3rd-8th TE
Tony Gonzalez – 2nd-4th TE
Chris Cooley – 4th-8th TE
Dallas Clark – 6th-12th TE
Heath Miller – 8th-16th TE
Jeremy Shockey – 4th-8th TE
Donald Lee – Waiver Wire Gem
Benjamin Watson – 10th-16th TE
Busts:  Alge Crumpler, Todd Heap, L.J. Smith, Randy McMichael, Vernon Davis

It would have been relatively easy to draft a team consisting of Tom Brady, Brian Westbrook, Adrian Peterson, Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards, Greg Jennings, and Dallas Clark.  However, if someone did that I’d look in their garage for Doc Brown’s DeLorean.

So next year when someone makes a selection at your draft that you find funny, keep the chuckles to yourself.  You may save yourself a nice healthy serving of crow.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

NFL Week 13 Fill-ins

30 November 2007

Has the injury bug hit you?  Are you faced with bad matchups?  Well, maybe I can help.  Here are some guys you can plug and play this weekend.

QB
Jason Campbell
- Campbell makes his 3rd appearance on the fill-ins.  Hey, there are only so many QBs that aren’t no-brainers and are still start worthy.  This week he faces Buffalo, who isn’t very good.  I just have a feeling Washington is going to have a big game this week for Sean Taylor, and then just fall into the tanks. 
Gus Frerotte - Frerotte is a risky pick.  He’s been far from spectacular this year.  However, he is facing a bad Atlanta team.  If you’re in a league where all the decent backups are gone, Gus is your guy.

RB
Travis Henry 
- Who would have guessed that Henry would have fallen so far as to be a fill-in guy?  Well, that’s what he is.  He says his knee is healthy.  Oakland sure is a nice team to make a return against.  I think I could rack up twenty yards against them.
Jesse Chatman -  He’s been dealing with some injury issues, but seems to be tough enough to gut them out.  He should find running against the Jets a whole lot easier than the Steelers.  I think he’s going to help the Dolphins pick up victory #1.

WR
javon-walker.jpg
Photo courtesy of Ed Wolfstein/Icon SMI
Javon Walker – Javon is another risky one.  He didn’t catch a pass last week nor play many plays.  However, the field conditions weren’t the greatest.  I would imagine it should be fine in Oakland.  Look for him to be more involved.
Sidney Rice - Passing on Detroit is not like taking candy from a baby.  Who ever came up with that phrase?  Have you ever tried to take anything from a baby?  They cry until they are red in the face.  Sorry I went off on a tangent there.  What I mean to say is Detroit’s secondary sucks.  It’s so bad that Sidney Rice may be a viable option for your third receiver.  Not a knock on him, but his QB is far from consistent. 
TE
Leonard Pope 
-  Dude’s 6’8″.  He hasn’t scored in a few weeks.  I can see hm doing so against Cleveland.

 

K
Steven Gostkowski 
- Besides the fact that I play against him this week, there is another reason I think he’ll be solid this week.  Baltimore has a decent defense.  If they learn anything from Philly is to really work on Moss.  I think the Ravens can stall a couple drives in the red zone and leave Gotskowski with a couple FGs and a handful of PATs.

DEF
Washington
 - I think the defense is going to pull together and come up big in honor of their fallen teammate.  It’s tough to replace a Pro Bowl safety, especially when it isn’t for just an injury.  I just get the feeling they will come up huge.

I’m going back out on that fantasy football limb. I will pick five players I believe will score more points this week than a higher profile player. The scoring will be 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. I will also do a Super Stretch Pick where I take a real longshot. First, I’ll recap last week.

Last Week
Brett Favre 30.95 beat Jon Kitna 20.1 (16.1 plus 4 spotted points) as I predicted.
LaDainian Tomlinson 12.2 beat Joseph Addai 11.8 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Thomas Jones 5.7 beat Cedric Benson 4.7 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Terrell Owens 12.5 beat Randy Moss 4.3 as I predicted.
D.J. Hackett 4.1 beat Roy Williams 3.2 as I predicted.

Super Stretch
Kolby Smith 27.2 destroyed Warrick Dunn 8.0 as I predicted.

If Benson and Addai didn’t get hurt, I would have been 6-0 this week.

Regular Picks: 3-2
Super Stretch Picks: 1-0
Overall: 4-2
Breakdown: QB: 1-0 RB: 1-2, WR: 2-0

Season Record
Regular Picks: 28-31-1
Super Stretch Picks: 10-2
Overall: 38-33-1
Breakdown: QB: 7-7, RB: 19-10-1, WR: 12-16

This Week’s Picks
Brett Favre over Tony Romo
Green Bay has a better pass defense than Dallas. Plus, Dallas has a better rushing attack. I think Favre wins the battle of the gunslingers.

clinton-portis.jpg sean-taylor.jpg
Photos courtesy of Icon Sports Media/Jeff Fishbein/Icon SMI

Clinton Portis over Brian Westbrook
CP is hurting following Sean Taylor’s death. I think he has a monster game to honor his fallen friend. Seattle has a pretty solid defense so they should keep Westbrook somewhat in check.

Edgerrin James over Joseph Addai
Here’s another former Hurricane RB that should fair well against Cleveland. Addai will have his hands full against Jacksonville.

Greg Jennings over Terrell Owens
Like I said, Green Bay has the better secondary. Favre to Jennings will outscore Romo to MeO. At least that’s what my warped mind thinks. I do think Dallas gets the W though.

Larry Fitzgerald over Braylon Edwards
I’ll take another head-to-head matchup. I think Arizona has a better secondary than Cleveland so I like Fitz here.

SUPER STRETCH
Travis Henry
over Rudi Johnson
He’s done nothing since his failed test has been reported. More injuries than anything else. Well, I think he’s healthy and gets to face the soft Oakland defense. That ought to put a spring in his step. Rudi looked good last week, but Pittsburgh is going to make him look bad again.

What did you think of my predictions? Do you have any fantasy upsets in mind? Please leave your comments.

Previous Out on a Limb Picks
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3

Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8

Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12

Fantasy Football Forum
fitz.jpg
Photo courtesy of Nick Doan/Icon SMI

How did you do? I snapped my seven game losing streak. I started off with a bang with Favre and Driver on Turkey Day. I plugged in Fred Taylor and Kolby Smith from the waiver wire. Larry Fitzgerald continued his dominance. Even Dwayne Bowe was decent as my third receiver, which has been a trouble spot all year for me (it’s my first game over five points from a 3rd WR since Week 5.) Surprisingly, I didn’t face Frank Gore or Chad Johnson this week. That’s how my game went down. How about you?

Tracking My NFL Preseason Predictions
I made a bunch of predictions in the preseason. I profiled guys I thought would do well. I also profiled guys I thought wouldn’t meet expectations. Here are my preseason predictions are going.

Surprises
J.P. Losman – Prediction: 3400 yards, 24 TDs, 16 INTs
On Pace for: Not worth reporting.
Right-O-Meter: 1
211 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs.

Alex Smith – Prediction: 3000 yards, 20 TDs, 14 INTs
On Pace for: Not worth reporting.
Right-O-Meter: 1
Didn’t even play.

Chris Brown – Prediction: 1000 total yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 640 yards, 1 TD
Right-O-Meter: 1
35 total yards. Had a TD taken away though.

Jerious Norwood – Prediction: 1200 total yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 742 yards, 1 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 1
42 yards. Yuck.

D.J. Hackett – Prediction: 80 receptions, 1100 yards, 8 TDs On Pace for: Not worth reporting
Right-O-Meter: 1
Re-injured his ankle. Oh boy.

Vincent Jackson – Prediction: 64 receptions, 1100 yards, 9 TDs
On Pace for: 653 yards, 3 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 1
Had 65 receiving yards. Not bad.

Heath Miller – Prediction: 600 yards, 8 TDs
On Pace for : 665 yards, 9 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 10
He didn’t catch a pass in the slopfest in Pittsburgh.

Disappointments
Vince Young – Prediction: 2800 passing yards, 650 rushing yards, 16 TDs, 6 rushing TDs, 20 INTs
On Pace for: 2419 passing, 432 rushing, 7 passing TDs, 4 rushing, 19 INTs
Right-O-Meter: 10
246 yards passing, 6 rushing, 0 TDs, 1 INT.

Maurice Jones-Drew- Prediction: 1100 total yards, 8 rushing & receiving TDs
On Pace for: 1213 yards, 10 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 6
26 total yards, but a TD bailed him out.

Torry Holt – Prediction: 1100 yards, 7 TDs
On Pace for: 1177 yards, 7 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 10
54 yards. No endzone.

Tony Gonzalez – Prediction: 700 yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 1073 yards, 6 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 5
48 yards

I’m failing miserably at this.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

Each week there are some surprising fantasy performers.  I’m going to take a look at them and see if you should go get ‘em or not.

QB
A.J. Feeley
- He filled in admirably for Donovan McNabb with 345 yards and 3 TDs.  However, he faces a tough Seattle secondary if he gets the start next week.  Plus, I wouldn’t be surprised if McNabb is back in the lineup next week.
Ruling – Don’t Sweat ‘em.

RB
kolby-smith.jpg
Photo courtesy of Kenny Felt/Icon SMI

Kolby Smith - 150 yards and 2 TDs.  You probably already picked him up when you saw Priest retire.  If not you grabbed him after his big game against Oakland.  Unfortunately he can’t face Oakland every week, but he’s worth a roster spot.
Ruling – Get ‘em.
Andre Hall - 167 total yards and a score.  He does get to face Oakland next week.  If he’s available, go to your league site now and get him.  Come back to see the rest.
Ruling – Get ‘em.
Adrian Peterson - No, not the Viking.  I’m talking Bears now.  Cedric Benson will likely be out a while.  If you need a starting RB, he’s likely to be one.
Ruling – Get ‘em.

WR
Greg Lewis
- It depends.  He has a huge 88 yard, 2 TD game.  I wouldn’t say rush right out and get him, but if Feeley starts again and Lewis has a good rapport with him, maybe he’s worth a spot.
Ruling – Get ‘em (if you’re in a deep league)
Sidney Rice -  He’s been pretty solid lately with 66 yards and a score, a passing TD, and 82 and a score over the past three weeks.  He may be worth stashing in deep leagues.  He could have a solid game against Detroit this week.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.
Jabar Gaffney -  He had 87 yards and a score last week.  However, he has to fight for scraps behind Moss, Welker, and Stallworth.  You can’t take that chance this late in the year.
Ruling – Don’t Sweat ‘em.

TE
Tony Scheffler
- He made some unbelievable catches against the Bears.  If he’s available, he is a solid TE option.  He has a great rapport with Cutler.
Ruling – Get ‘em.

There you have it.  I hope I provided you some good info while you make your fantasy team waiver wire adjustments.

bush.jpg
Photo courtesy of Bob Levey/Icon SMI

Not since Michael Vick was in his “prime” have you had a player that’s as overexposed and overhyped as Reggie Bush.  I mean everywhere you turn you see Mr. Bush.  I guess I don’t blame him.  Football is a violent sport, and your career can be over in the blink of an eye.  You might as well strike while the iron is hot.  I just wish there was a little less sizzle and a little more steak.  How a little more exposure from the better second year runner, Joseph Addai?  How about the league’s best running back this year, Brian Westbrook.  Heck, LaDainian Tomlinson isn’t even as overexposed as Bush.

 There are nine running backs with more fantasy points than Bush.  He has been good, but not great.  He has not cracked 100 yards on the ground or through the air this year.  In fact, he only has one career 100 yard rushing game.  He does have two career 100 yard receiving games to his credit, but only having three 100 yard games out of 26 isn’t exactly dynamic.  Heck, Adrian Peterson has two 200 yard games already, plus three 100 yard games.

He got most of the credit for the turnaround last year even though Drew Brees was added, Deuce McAllister returned from injury, and Marques Colston made a huge splash as a rookie.  I think that helped feed the hype machine.

I’m not saying that Reggie Bush is a bad running back.  I just think he’s a little overhyped is all.  I hope he doesn’t go the direction of Michael Vick, and I doubt he will.  I just wish the corporate folks would stop ramming him down our throats.  How about we share the pie with some of the guys who deserve a little more attention?

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

NFL Week 12 Fill-ins

23 November 2007

Has the injury bug hit you?  Are you faced with bad matchups?  Well, maybe I can help.  Here are some guys you can plug-in this weekend.

QB
garrard.jpg
Photo courtesy of Chris Livingston/Icon SMI

David Garrard - Garrard looked good last week in his return from injury.  Getting to face Buffalo at home is a nice followup.
Matt Schaub - I told you to use him last week.  Well, keep him in because he faces Cleveland.

RB
Kolby Smith
 - Out with LJ & Priest.  In with Kolby.  He gets to face a soft Oakland run defense in his first start.  Nice.
Cedric Benson - Denver’s run defense has been weak.  Benson’s been running well.  That should be a nice recipe for fantasy points.

WR
Donte Stallworth
- I get the feeling he torches his former team.
Andre Davis - Andre Johnson can’t have all the receptions against Cleveland.

TE
L.J. Smith
-  He has 8 catches in the past two games.  You know they will be playing from behind and passing.

K
Shaun Suisham
- 10FGs in the last three games.  Sign him up.

DEF
Arizona
 - Two words. San Francisco.  Enough said.

I’m going back out on that fantasy football limb. I will pick five players I believe will score more points this week than a higher profile player. The scoring will be 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. I will also do a Super Stretch Pick where I take a real longshot. First, I’ll recap last week.

Last Week
Ben Roethlisberger 14.25 beat Peyton Manning 7.85 as I predicted.
LaDainian Tomlinson 21.5 beat Brian Westbrook 14.8 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Brandon Jacobs 16.3 Willie Parker 5.2 as I predicted.
Terrell Owens 41.3 ate Larry Fitzgerlad 15.3 alive WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Andre Johnson 18.0 beat Steve Smith 0.0 as I predicted.
Smith didn’t play, but I doubt he would have beat Andre.

Super Stretch
Chester Taylor 38.2 beat Clinton Portis 4.5 as I predicted.

Regular Picks: 3-2
Super Stretch Picks: 1-0
Overall: 4-2
Breakdown: QB: 1-0, RB: 2-1, WR: 1-1

Season Record
Regular Picks: 25-29-1
Super Stretch Picks: 9-2
Overall: 34-31-1
Breakdown: QB: 6-7, RB: 18-8-1, WR: 10-16

This Week’s Picks
favre-td.jpg
Photo courtesy of Bryan C Singer/Icon SMI
Brett Favre over Jon Kitna +4
I wanted to go with this special Thanksgiving matchup. In order to make it fair, I’ll spot Kitana 4 points. 
Joseph Addai over LaDainian Tomlinson
Addai should find running room against Atlanta. The passing game isn’t clicking for Indy so Addai needs to get rolling. LT faces Baltimore, which brings him back to Earth. 

 

Cedric Benson over Thomas Jones
Hey, the Bears made this decision. This week I’m making it too. Cedric Benson has been running well of late. Denver’s rushing D has been horrible. I see a decent game out of Benson. Thomas Jones faces a tough Dallas D on Turkey Day. Not loving those odds. 

Terrell Owens over Randy Moss
They both play prime time games this week. I should be careful because Moss will get to see what MeO did prior. However, I think the Eagles present a much better secondary for Moss than the Jets do for Owens. Plus, I’m tired of MeO killing me every week. 

D.J. Hackett over Roy Williams
Hackett has been on fire since returning from his ankle injury. I’d expect more of the same against a weak St. Louis secondary. Roy gets to battle Al Harris and Charles Woodson. Not fun.

SUPER STRETCH 
Kolby Smith over Warrick Dunn
Kolby gets to replace not one, but two legends this week as LJ is still out and Priest retired. I think he finds success against Oakland though. Dunn gets to face Indy on the bright lights of Thanksgiving Night Football. Too bad most of America can’t watch it.

That concluded the Thanksgiving Day special. I included at least one playr in each matchup that is playing on Turkey Day.

What did you think of my predictions? Do you have any fantasy upsets in mind? Please leave your comments.

Previous Out on a Limb Picks
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3

Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11

Don’t be THAT guy!

21 November 2007

A guy in my league became too busy to maintain his team.  He is going to school and coaching a JV Division III girl’s basketball team.  When he’s not hitting the books, he’s running practice, watching film, etc.  Not to mention he’s in a couple other fantasy football leagues that he’s been in longer.  So he stepped down winless, and a newbie took over.  Suddenly, his team of Kitna, Addai, Bush, MeO, Jennings, Berrian/Reggie Brown/Chris Henry has hit its stride and won four straight.  He’s been doing his share of bragging, which ordinarily is fine, but he’s bragging on someone else’s behalf.  If the original owner stuck it out, he’d be the one winning.  The newbie didn’t make any changes. 

However, that’s not what makes him THAT guy.  Since he’s a newbie, and I’m pretty much out of it, I figured I’d offer him some advice.  I suggested that he drop James Jones and pick up Kenton Keith.  I mean he has MeO, Jennings, Berrian, Brown, Henry, and Branch.  Why would you keep a 7th WR when the perfect handcuff is sitting there on the waiver wire.  He has Warrick Dunn, Thomas Jones, and DeShaun Foster to plug in if Addai got hurt, but are they enough?  Keith was a solid play the game Addai missed.  If something should happen to him, he better be quick to the waiver wire.  Otherwise, he’ll foolishly have lost out on his handcuff.

There aren’t any more bye weeks everybody.  Now’s the time to take a look at your roster, and get it set for the stretch run.  Don’t hang on to a guy who you aren’t possibly going to play and leave off a nice insurance policy.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

How did you do? I got smoked. This week Terrell Owens did me in. Brett Favre was great. Larry Fitzgerald was as well. I did trade Marion Barber III for Marshawn Lynch though, so my keepers are Ronnie Brown, Lynch, and Fitz. I’ve lost my 7th straight game, but have put myself in decent position for next year. Looks like I’m the frontrunner for McFadden too. How did you do?

Tracking My NFL Preseason Predictions
I made a bunch of predictions in the preseason. I profiled guys I thought would do well. I also profiled guys I thought wouldn’t meet expectations. Here are my preseason predictions are going.

Surprises
J.P. Losman – Prediction: 3400 yards, 24 TDs, 16 INTs
On Pace for: Not worth reporting.
Right-O-Meter: 1
173 yards and a TD. Not exactly a winner.

Alex Smith – Prediction: 3000 yards, 20 TDs, 14 INTs
On Pace for: Not worth reporting.
Right-O-Meter: 1
Didn’t even play.

Chris Brown – Prediction: 1000 total yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 648 yards, 2 TDs
Right-O-Meter: The good news, he returned from injury with 75 total yards. THe bad news, he only had three carries.

Jerious Norwood – Prediction: 1200 total yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 749 yards, 2 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 1
14 total yards. Puke.

D.J. Hackett – Prediction: 80 receptions, 1100 yards, 8 TDs
On Pace for: 483 yards, 5 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 4
136 yards and a TD. See.

Vincent Jackson – Prediction: 64 receptions, 1100 yards, 9 TDs
On Pace for: 614 yards, 3 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 1
20 yards. Oh boy.

Heath Miller – Prediction: 600 yards, 8 TDs
On Pace for : 731 yards, 10 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 10
36 yards. Not so hot.

Disappointments
Vince Young – Prediction: 2800 passing yards, 650 rushing yards, 16 TDs, 6 rushing TDs, 20 INTs
On Pace for: 2267, 466, 8 TDs, 5 rushing TDs, 19 picks
Right-O-Meter: 10
VY threw for 305 yards and a TD. He also ran for 74 yards and a score. That’s a real solid game. Careful though, it could lead to a sucker play next week.

Maurice Jones-Drew- Prediction: 1100 total yards, 8 rushing & receiving TDs
On Pace for: 1293 total yards, 10 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 2
Only 37 yards, but he did score.

Torry Holt – Prediction: 1100 yards, 7 TDs
On Pace for: 1208 yards, 8 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 8
55 and a TD. Solid.

Tony Gonzalez – Prediction: 700 yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 1104 yards, 6 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 4
46 yards. Not the greatest.

Not doing so hot, but I’m glad Hackett is coming on.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

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