Each week there are some surprising fantasy performers.  I’m going to take a look at them and see if you should go get ‘em or not.

QB
Sage Rosenfels -
He had two striaght solid outings.  I don’t love his matchup with Indy, but he’s the best of the wavier wire garbage if you need to replace a Tony Romo.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.
Shaun Hill – Had a decent game against Cincinnati.  It is Cincinnati though.  Next week won’t be fun against Tampa Bay.
Ruling – Don’t Sweat ’em.

RB
stecker.jpg
Photo courtesy of John Pyle/Icon SMI

Aaron Stecker
-  100 yards against Atlanta.  Not bad.  141 total yards and 2 scores agaisnt Arizona.  Nice.  If he slipped, you can get him.  It looks like you can start him if you need to.  Ruling:  Get ‘em.
Darren Sproles- He had 135 total yards and two scores.  He mopped up after LT got done with Detroit.  Don’t expect a repeat.  Ruling:  Don’t Sweat ‘em.

WR
Roydell Williams  - He seems to be ranked high each week despite only 3 good games to show for.  However, two of those games have come the last two weeks.  He should make it three in a row against the Jets.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.
Dennis Northcutt - He’s being targeted, which is nice, but hasn’t had much success this year.  It was his first game over 70 yards since Week 5.  His only game over 80 yards.  Before yesterday’s games his pattern was three games without a score and then a TD, three games without a score and then a TD.  That’s not what you want for the title game. 
Ruling:  Don’t Sweat ‘em.

TE
Chris Baker – Pennington dumped it off to Baker 8 times.  If Chad starts next week, Baker could be worth using.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.

There you have it.  I hope I provided you some good info while you make your fantasy team waiver wire adjustments.

NFL Week 15 Fill-ins

14 December 2007

Has the injury bug hit you?  Are you faced with bad matchups?  Well, maybe I can help.  Here are some guys you can plug and play this weekend.

QB
Trent Edwards 
- He threw four TDs last week.  He gets to play Cleveland this week.  Throw in the fact that he’s throwing to Lee Evans in December, one would think he’d be a decent play this week.
Jeff Garcia - If you league penalizes for INTs, then Jeff is your guy.  He just doesn’t throw that many picks.  He should have a solid game against an Atlanta team that is imploding in front of our eyes.

RB
frank-gore.jpg
Photo Courtesy of John Pyle/Icon SMI

Frank Gore - Can you believe it’s come to this with Frank.  However, with guys like Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Jamal Lewis, Clinton Portis, Willis McGahee, Edge, etc. having better years than Frank, he isn’t a weekly start anymore.  He should be counted on against Cincinnati though.
Aaron Stecker -  If you’re hurting, at least he’s a warm body.  One coming off a 100 yard performance against Atlanta.  OK, it’s Atlanta, but New Orleans has it’s passing attack working so well that the run should be open.

WR
Deion Branch 
-  Seattle has all but abandoned the run.  Their passing attack is really clicking.  Branch has scored two of the past three weeks and should do well against Carolina.
Anthony Gonzalez -  Yeah, I’m a week late on this one, but that doesn’t mean you can’t plug him in against Oakland.  Oakland defends the pass fairly well, but it doesn’t matter when Peyton is your QB.

TE
Robert Royal - 
He scored twice last week so if you’re hurting, why not ride the hot hand?  Plus he faces Cleveland.

K
Josh Scobee
-  He’s kicked 9 FGs over the past three games.  Facing Pittsburgh, he could be looking at multiple field goal attempts should the Jags sputter in the red zone.

DEF
Cincinnati - 
I’m not real confident in this pick.  The top D’s this weekend should be NE, SD, GB, SEA, TENN, INDY, TB, MN, and BAL.  Chances are you have one of those D’s.  If I was really hurting and gambling, I would take Cincy and hope they force some turnovers.

I’m going back out on that fantasy football limb. I will pick five players I believe will score more points this week than a higher profile player. The scoring will be 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. I will also do a Super Stretch Pick where I take a real longshot. First, I’ll recap last week.

Last Week
Tom Brady 36.35 beat Tony Romo 24.6 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
He didn’t need the two I spotted him.
Ryan Grant 22.2 beat Willis McGahee 5.2 as I predicted.
Travis Henry 8.4 beat Kolby Smith 1.0 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Marques Colston 21.2 beat Greg Jennings 16.0 as I predicted.
Wes Welker 13.8 beat Calvin Johnson 5.1 WHICH I GOT WRONG.

Super Stretch
Fred Jackson 12.1 beat Frank Gore 11.7 as I predicted.
The fact that Marshawn Lynch played, really made this a Super Stretch.

Regular Picks: 2-3
Super Stretch Picks: 1-0
Overall: 3-3
Breakdown: QB: 0-1, RB: 2-1, WR: 1-1

Season Record
Regular Picks: 32-38-1
Super Stretch Picks: 12-2
Overall: 44-40-1
Breakdown: QB: 7-9, RB: 22-13-1, WR: 14-18

This Week’s Picks
Matt Hasselbeck over Ben Roethlisberger +2
Big Ben has more fantasy points than Matt, but Matt’s been hotter. Plus, he gets an easy matchup against Carolina while Big Ben gets to face Jacksonville. I’ll spot Ben two points for his troubles.

edge.jpg
Photo courtesy of Nick Doan/Icon SMI

Edgerrin James over Marion Barber
I like the Edge’s matchup against New Orleans better than MB3′s against Philadelphia. This is risky because if Arizona can’t hang with New Orleans’ offense they will have to all but abandon the run.

Earnest Graham over Maurice Jones-Drew +2
Here’s the thing. Graham will have more total yards than MJD. If MJD finds the endzone it will be close. I’m not sure Pittsburgh will let him. Graham should have little problem finding the endzone against Atlanta. I’ll spot MJD two points.

Lee Evans over Torry Holt
Lee Evans should continue his trend of huge December games against Cleveland. Holt gets to face Green Bay with a QB that’s one hit from the sidelines. I know who I’d rather start given the choice.

Chris Chambers over Roddy White
White has been on fire, but I think this week it’s Chris Chambers’ turn to torch the Lions. Hopefully, Rivers plays otherwise Billy Volek get to become a fantasy football playoffs hero again.

SUPER STRETCH
Ryan Grant over Adrian Peterson
The last time All Day Peterson faced Chicago he ran wild for over 200 yards. I think they will remember that, and keep him somewhat in check. Favre is still hurting a bit so I think the Pack will rely on Grant more against St. Louis.

What did you think of my predictions? Do you have any fantasy upsets in mind? Please leave your comments.

Previous Out on a Limb Picks
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3

Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14

Fantasy Football Forum
How did you do? My team got put out of its misery. I was asked about my team’s execution. I said “I was all for it”. Putting the NFL’s best quotes (John McKay) aside, my team sucked. Andre Johnson showed up. He didn’t have much company. Brett Favre was the only other person to record a TD for me. Randy Moss went off against me yet again. So did your playoffs start or do they start next week? How are your odds looking?

Tracking My NFL Preseason Predictions
I made a bunch of predictions in the preseason. I profiled guys I thought would do well. I also profiled guys I thought wouldn’t meet expectations. Here are my preseason predictions are going.

Surprises
J.P. Losman – Prediction: 3400 yards, 24 TDs, 16 INTs
On Pace for: Not worth reporting.
Right-O-Meter: 1
Buffalo had 4 TD passes sthis week. Too bad Losman didn’t throw any.

Alex Smith – Prediction: 3000 yards, 20 TDs, 14 INTs
On Pace for: Not worth reporting.
Right-O-Meter: 1
Alex Smith had 3.9 fantasy points this week. Oh wait, wrong Alex Smith. Yeah, my guy didn’t play.

Chris Brown – Prediction: 1000 total yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 647 total yards, 4 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 5
He only had 27 total yards, but at least he scored.

Jerious Norwood – Prediction: 1200 total yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 865 yards, 1 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 3
78 total yards this week. Not bad.

D.J. Hackett – Prediction: 80 receptions, 1100 yards, 8 TDs
On Pace for: Not worth reporting
Right-O-Meter: 1
Did not play.

Vincent Jackson – Prediction: 64 receptions, 1100 yards, 9 TDs
On Pace for: 657 yards, 4 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 4
47 yards. Wow. For him that’s pretty good.

Heath Miller – Prediction: 600 yards, 8 TDs
On Pace for : 634 yards, 7 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 10
Started off good, but only finished with 28 yards.

Disappointments
Vince Young – Prediction: 2800 passing yards, 650 rushing yards, 16 TDs, 6 rushing TDs, 20 INTs
On Pace for: 2501 passing, 422 rushing, 9 passing TDs, 4 rushing, 20 INTs
Right-O-Meter: 10
121 passing yards. 2 rushing yards. 2 picks. 0 TDs. See.

Maurice Jones-Drew- Prediction: 1100 total yards, 8 rushing & receiving TDs
On Pace for: 1152 total yards, 11 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 6
45 total yards. When he doesn’t score a TD, he’s been dreadful.

Torry Holt – Prediction: 1100 yards, 7 TDs
On Pace for: 1273 yards, 7 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 8
Solid 90 yards. Didn’t find the endzone.

Tony Gonzalez – Prediction: 700 yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 1174 yards, 6 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 3
76 yards and a TD. That’s what you were hoping for when you drafted him.

I looked a little better this week. Not much.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

Each week there are some surprising fantasy performers.  I’m going to take a look at them and see if you should go get ‘em or not.

QB
Trent Edwards 
- I have mixed opinions on this one.  He threw for four TDs against Miami, which is impressive.  I know the Dolphins stink, but they don’t allow much through the air.  That is evidenced by the fact that Edwards only had 165 passing yards.  He plays Cleveland and the Giants in the next two weeks.  I’m not quite ready to label him the next Billy Volek, but if he got you through round 1 of your playoffs, he could easily get you into the title game with that Cleveland matchup.
Ruling – Get ‘em. 
Todd Collins  - If you were counting on Jason Campbell for your playoff run, Collins may not be a horrible replacement.  Matchup against the Giants and Minnesota give you a glimmer of hope.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.

RB

Selvin Young -  When the Henry returned from injury and his appeal was won, I figured he’d be the best Broncos back going forward.  After his 156 yard outburst against Kansas City, I don’t think that’s the case.  If Young got dropped in your league because of Henry’s return, do your best add him to your roster.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.
Samkon Gato - He had 93 total yards and 2 TDs.  However, they did play the winless Dolphins.  This much I know.  Miami can run.  However, they face Baltimore and New England the next couple of weeks.  Not exactly matchups I’d be rushing to insert Samkon into my lineups for.  Ruling:  Don’t Sweat ‘em.

WR
anthony-gonzalez.jpg 
Photo courtesy of Todd Kirkland/Icon SMI

Anthony Gonzalez - He had a monster game against Baltimore.  Marvin Harrison will most likely continue to miss time.  Peyton Manning is his QB.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.
Jerheme Urban - He exploded against Seattle this week.  However, I think it has fluke written all over it.  Fitz came back, and Boldin is improving.  Even though they have great matchups against New Orleans and Atlanta, I don’t think it will be Urban lighting it up. 
Ruling:  Don’t Sweat ‘em.

TE
Robert Royal 
- He hauled in 2 TD passes.   He’s not great, but he has caught 7 passes the past two weeks and faces Cleveland next week.  If you’re hurting at TE, he could be a decent play.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.

There you have it.  I hope I provided you some good info while you make your fantasy team waiver wire adjustments.

westbrook-soars.jpg 
Photo courtesy of Robert E. Klein/Icon SMI

He’s listed at 5’10″, and 203 lbs, but I’d say he’s closer to 5’8″.  He’s the scariest running back in fantasy football.  Scary to own because of his injury risk, and even scarier to face, especially in the fantasy playoffs.  If you had the good fortune of owning him, chances are you’ve had some uneasy feelings along the way.  Nobody likes to see their star player listed as questionable as often as Westbrook is. 

 Yeah, he misses games occasionally, but it’s not for huge chunks at a time.  He misses one game in each of his first two years.  He missed three and four games in his next two seasons.  He missed one game last year and one game so far this year.  So we’re not talking about a chronic injury concern.

His numbers are incredible though.  It all started in 2003.  He had close to a thousand yards of total offense and 11 rushing & receiving TDs.  He followed that up with 812 rushing (3 TDs) and 703 receiving yards (6TDs) in 2004.  2005 was a down year for Westbrook as he had 617 rushing and 616 receiving.  He did score 7 TDs in his 12 games that year.  In 2006 he really blew on the scene.  He had 1217 rushing yards (7 TDs) and 699 receiving yards (4 TDs).  Despite his history of success, he generally wasn’t considered one of the top 5 or 6 picks in fantasy drafts last year. 

What has he done to reward those who had the faith to draft or trade for him?  994 rushing yards (7 TDs) and 604 receiving yards (4 TDs) in eleven games.  Not too shabby.   

He’s had at least 4 receiving TDs in each of the past five seasons.  He’s had at least 600 receiving yards in each of the past four.  That kind of production catching the ball is what sets Westbrook apart from most backs.  He’s having a career year this year, but where’s he going to go next year.  Let’s see.  Adrian Peterson, LT, Addai, maybe Steven Jackson.  Probably not Larry Johnson at this point.  This much I know.  The person who takes him will be less sure about their first round selection that all of the other owners.  However, by the end of the season, that won’t likely be the case.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

NFL Week 14 Fill-ins

7 December 2007

Has the injury bug hit you?  Are you faced with bad matchups?  Well, maybe I can help.  Here are some guys you can plug and play this weekend.

QB
Marc Bulger 
- If he stays healthy, he should be solid against Cincinnati.  He’s an injury risk, but if you’re in need this weekend, Bulger’s your guy.
Jon Kitna - Just when you’re thinking about benching him, he has a home game against a Dallas secondary that isn’t as good as they looked against Brett Favre.  He lost Roy Williams, but he still should be solid.

RB
shaun-alexander.jpg
Photo courtesy of Chris Livingston/Icon SMI

Shaun Alexander - Seattle has to know that a key to a long run in the playoffs is a strong Shaun Alexander.  I would look to them to keep getting SA back on track.
Jerious Norwood -  He was solid last week, and facing New Orleans is a good way to follow that up. 

WR
Calvin Johnson
-  With Roy Williams injured, the Lions will turn to their prized rookie for more production.  His fantasy owners will reap the rewards.
Chris Henry -  He hasn’t been arrested in a while so Henry makes a strong play against a weak St. Louis secondary.

TE
Benjamin Watson - 
He hasn’t been too involved in the offense lately, but against Pittsburgh I see him as a hot read on a blitz package.  I think Watson will be a big factor.

K
Mike Nugent
-  He’s kicked 11 FGs over the past four weeks.  He should get opportunities against Cleveland.  He’s a solid play this week.

DEF
Buffalo
 - They aren’t a great defense, but Miami stinks.  They should be able to get some QB pressure and force some turnovers.

I’m going back out on that fantasy football limb. I will pick five players I believe will score more points this week than a higher profile player. The scoring will be 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. I will also do a Super Stretch Pick where I take a real longshot. First, I’ll recap last week.

Last Week
Tony Romo 31.25 destoyed Brett Favre 2.8 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Brian Westbrook 19.9 beat Clinton Portis 12.0 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Edgerrin James 11.4 beat Joseph Addai 6.7 as I predicted.
Terrell Owens 21.6 beat Greg Jennings 14.7 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Braylon Edwards 20.9 smoked Larry Fitzgerald 0.0 WHICH I GOT WRONG.

Super Stretch
Travis Henry 16.9 over Rudi Johnson 9.4 as I predicted.

Regular Picks: 1-4
Super Stretch Picks: 1-0
Overall: 2-4
Breakdown: QB: 0-1, RB: 1-2, WR: 1-1

Season Record
Regular Picks: 30-35-1
Super Stretch Picks: 11-2
Overall: 41-37-1
Breakdown: QB: 7-8, RB: 20-12-1, WR: 13-17

This Week’s Picks 
romo.jpg 
Photo courtesy of James D. Smith/Icon SMI

Tony Romo over Tom Brady +2
All right. I’ll take on the big guy. I’ll even spot him two points.  I’ll take Romo against the Lions over Brady facing the Steelers. 

Ryan Grant over Willis McGahee
Both of these backs are on fire. However, one gets to face the soft Oakland defense (Grant) while the other has a tougher task against the Colts (McGahee). 

Kolby Smith over Travis Henry
I’ll take the rookie over Travis “All My Children” Henry.   Thanks JP, for the borrowed term. Denver’s run defense is pretty soft. 

Marques Colston over Greg Jennings
Jennings has been a TD machine, but Atlanta’s pass defense is much worse than the Raiders. 

Calvin Johnson over Wes Welker
With Roy Williams out the Lions will have to lean heavily on the rookie. I think he responds. Welker will have a hard time finding space against that tough Pittsburgh defense.

SUPER STRETCH 
Fred Jackson over Frank Gore
Fred gets to go off against Miami. Most likely Marshawn Lynch won’t play. Gore faces a tough MN run defense. This one could easily blow up in my face.

What did you think of my predictions? Do you have any fantasy upsets in mind? Please leave your comments. 

Previous Out on a Limb Picks
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3

Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13

Fantasy Football Forum
favre-sacked.jpg 
Photo Courtesy of James D. Smith/Icon SMI

How did you do? I got bombed. Brett Favre set the tone early. I blew up my team before Friday’s trade deadline. I dealt Larry Fitzgerald and my #1 pick next year (which after the keeper’s is a 4th round pick) for Larry Johnson. I turned around and traded Ronnie Brown and Dwayne Bowe for Andre Johnson. I figured I’d let someone else deal with Ronnie’s recovery. My keepers are set at Larry Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, and Andre Johnson. Back to my thumping. I had Favre and my opponent had Romo. Fun. Andre Johnson did good for me. Reggie Wayne did better for my opponent.

Tracking My NFL Preseason Predictions
I made a bunch of predictions in the preseason. I profiled guys I thought would do well. I also profiled guys I thought wouldn’t meet expectations. Here are my preseason predictions are going.

Surprises
J.P. Losman – Prediction: 3400 yards, 24 TDs, 16 INTs
On Pace for: Not worth reporting.
Right-O-Meter: 1
Didn’t play.

Alex Smith – Prediction: 3000 yards, 20 TDs, 14 INTs
On Pace for: Not worth reporting.
Right-O-Meter: 1
Didn’t play.

Chris Brown – Prediction: 1000 total yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 665 total yards, 3 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 5
59 total yards and a score. Sweet.

Jerious Norwood – Prediction: 1200 total yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 833 yards, 1 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 5
115 total yards. Nice.

D.J. Hackett – Prediction: 80 receptions, 1100 yards, 8 TDs
On Pace for: Not worth reporting
Right-O-Meter: 1
Did not play.

Vincent Jackson – Prediction: 64 receptions, 1100 yards, 9 TDs
On Pace for: 649 yards, 4 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 3
Only 38 yards, but he did score.

Heath Miller – Prediction: 600 yards, 8 TDs
On Pace for : 649 yards, 8 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 10+++
Only 30 yards, but I’m so close I’d win both Showcase Showdowns.

Disappointments
Vince Young – Prediction: 2800 passing yards, 650 rushing yards, 16 TDs, 6 rushing TDs, 20 INTs
On Pace for: 2548 passing, 455 rushing, 9 passing TDs, 4 rushing, 19 INTs
Right-O-Meter: 10
248 yards passing, 44 rushing, 2 TDs, 1 INTs. That was solid. You knew he’d bring it against Houston.

Maurice Jones-Drew- Prediction: 1100 total yards, 8 rushing & receiving TDs
On Pace for: 1188 total yards, 11 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 6
Only 57 yards, but another TD. Man, he has a nose for the endzone.

Torry Holt – Prediction: 1100 yards, 7 TDs
On Pace for: 1259 yards, 8 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 6
135 yards and a score. That’s not helping me. It is helping his owners though.

Tony Gonzalez – Prediction: 700 yards, 5 TDs
On Pace for: 1171 yards, 5 TDs
Right-O-Meter: 5
Blew up for ten grabs and 140 yards. Yikes.

I’m failing miserably at this.

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL |

Each week there are some surprising fantasy performers.  I’m going to take a look at them and see if you should go get ‘em or not.

QB
Gus Frerotte
- I picked him as a Friday Fill-in last week, and he didn’t disappoint.  Bulger may be back next week, but if you have a roster spot availalbe, he’s worth picking up just in case.  If he starts against Cincinnati, he could put up big numbers again.
Ruling – Get ‘em. 
Luke McCown  - He was solid against New Orleans on Sunday.  Almost anyone can do that though.  Plus, Jeff Garcia should be back soon.
Ruling:  Don’t Sweat ‘em.
Josh McCown  - He had a solid game against Denver.  However, IF he remains the starter, the road gets much tougher.  Green Bay, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and San Diego.  It’s going to get uglier in the Black Hole.
Ruling – Don’t Sweat ‘em.

RB
Fred Jackson -  Well, if you’re hurting, Fred could be your guy.  He racked up 151 total yards last week filling in for Marshawn Lynch and Anthony Thomas.  Should they both prove to be unable to go next week, he could have a solid game against Miami.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.
Leon Washington - He had 103 total yards and 2 TDs.  However, they did play the winless Dolphins.  Thomas Jones isn’t going anywhere, evidenced by the difference in carries (Jones 24, Washington 10).  This game isn’t going to be the norm for Leon.
Ruling:  Don’t Sweat ‘em.

WR
bryant-johnson.jpg
Photo Courtesy of Nick Doan/Icon SMI 

Bryant Johnson - Fitz missed the game with an injury.  Boldin hurt his foot.  Johnson has caught 11 passes over the past two weeks.  This week’s matchup with Seattle isn’t great, but New Orleans, Atlanta, and St. Louis follow.  Nice.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.
Justin Gage - Gate has been pretty hot lately.  He’s had at least four receptions and 64 yards over the last four games while scoring in half of them.  His fantasy point average over that stretch is 10.95 ppg.  Not too bad.
Ruling – Get ‘em.
Roydell Williams - Every week Yahoo projects Roydell to have a solid game.  He delivered this week, but that’s more of an exception than a rule.  That was his first game over 50 yards since Week 7.  His first TD since Week 2.  Need I continue?
Ruling:  Don’t Sweat ‘em.

TE
Mercedes Lewis
- He had a surprisingly good game against Indianapolis.  He caught five balls in back-to-back games.  He has 2 TDs in his past three.  He’s not going to light you on fire, but if you’re hurting, he’s at least been productive of late.  He has a decent matchup against Carolina next week.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.

There you have it.  I hope I provided you some good info while you make your fantasy team waiver wire adjustments.


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