LestersLegends.com

Super Bowl XLIV Results:  0-1
My Son’s Results:  0-1

Regular Season Lock Picks:  31-3 (.912)
Regular Season Total:  177-79 (.691)
Playoff Picks:  4-7
Pro Bowl Pick:  1-0
Overall Total:  182-86 (.679)

My son’s Playoff Picks:  5-2
My son’s Pro Bowl Pick:  1-0
My son’s Overall Total:  6-2

These are heads-up picks. The Yahoo ATS challenge wrapped up. I finished tied for third at 134-119-3 (.529). If you want to take part in the challenge next year, leave me a message in the comment with your e-mail or send one to me at contact@lesterslegends.com.

Time for the final results of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.

Scoring

6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Peyton Manning over Drew Brees +2:  Loser Manning 20.65, Brees 24.3 (22.3 actual +2)
Donald Brown over Reggie Bush:  Loser Brown 2.9, Bush 6.3
Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon over Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Jeremy Shockey, and David Thomas
Winner
Indy Triplets:  23.8
Colston, Henerson, Meachem, Shockey, Thomas: 23.4
Super Bowl Picks:  1-2

Season Record
Regular Picks: 41-40-1
Super Stretch Picks:  8-12
Playoffs Picks:  7-7
Pro Bowl Picks:  0-3
Overall: 56-62-1

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on match-ups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one match-ups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

For the Pro Bowl I will pick one matchup for Quarterback, Running Back, and Wide Receiver.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Brett Favre over Peyton Manning +2:  Loser Favre 19.5, Manning 32.85 (30.85 actual +2)
Shonn Greene over Joseph Addai +1:  Loser Greene 4.1, Addai 10.3 (9.3 actual +1)
Austin Collie over Reggie Wayne:  Winner Collie 18.3, Wayne 5.5
Conference Finals Picks:  1-2

Season Record
Regular Picks: 41-40-1
Super Stretch Picks:  8-12
Playoffs Picks:  6-5
Overall: 55-57-1

Pro Bowl Picks

Vince Young over Donovan McNabb
The Pro Bowl seems like an ideal place for an athlete like VY to showcase his skills. There will be minimal defense played and look for VY’s revival to continue. McNabb is the elder statesmen of the NFC quarterbacks so I expect him to take a back seat.

Frank Gore over Adrian Peterson
Adrian Peterson is coming off a brutal loss to the Saints that saw him put the ball on the carpet multiple times. I think he’s there for the festivities, and as an ambassador to the game, but not to get a bunch of carries. Meanwhile, I think Frank Gore puts on a show for his home crowd.

Steve Smith over Vincent Jackson
This has more to do with the Quarterbacks that these WRs will be playing with than their abilities or match-ups. Once the starters (Matt Schaub and Aaron Rodgers) are out, Smith has a distinct advantage with McNabb and Romo over V-Jax with VY and David Garrard.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on match-ups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one match-ups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

For the playoffs I will pick one matchup for Quarterback, Running Back, and Wide Receiver

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Kurt Warner over Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers (individually)
Warner:  10.25
Manning:  Loser  20.1
Rivers:  Loser 25.3
Felix Jones over LaDainian Tomlinson:  Winner Felix 9.1, LT 2.4
Marques Colston over Vincent Jackson +2 :  Winner Colston 14.3, V-Jax 13.1 (11.1 actual +2)
Divisional Round Picks:  2-2

Season Record
Regular Picks: 41-40-1
Super Stretch Picks:  8-12
Playoffs Picks:  5-3
Overall: 54-55-1

Conference Championship Picks

Brett Favre over Peyton Manning +2
You have three elite QBs and Sanchez so it makes it difficult to do an out on a limb pick here. I’ll take Favre against the Saints and spot Peyton two points.

Shonn Greene over Joseph Addai +1
Greene has been running wild in the postseason, but he’s still not a sure thing. Joseph Addai gets it done on the ground and through the air, but the Jets have the best defense left in the field. I’ll spot Addai a point to make it more interesting.

Austin Collie over Reggie Wayne 
I respect Darrelle Revis enough that I’ll take Robin to outperform Batman this week. While Manning won’t completely shy away from Revis, he will be cautious when throwing at him.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

For the playoffs I will pick one matchup for Quarterback, Running Back, and Wide Receiver

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Joe Flacco over Carson Palmer +2:  Loser Flacco 2.4, Palmer 13.5 (11.5 actual +2)
Cedric Benson over Thomas Jones +0.5:  Winner Benson 23.1, Jones 3.9 (3 actual +0.5)
Julian Edelman over Roy Williams and Chad Johnson (Individually)
Double Winner Edelman 16.4
Roy Williams 5.9
Chad Johnson 2.8
Wild Card Round Picks:  3-1

Season Record
Regular Picks: 41-40-1
Super Stretch Picks:  8-12
Playoffs Picks:  3-1
Overall: 52-53-1

Divisional Round Picks

Kurt Warner over Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers (individually)
It’s hard to imagine Peyton being happy about drawing the Ravens, but very well could be given the alternative. The Jets are playing at a very high level defensively, and with their rushing attack, I’m not expecting a huge output by Rivers. While Manning dodges that Jets bullet, he does get to face an aggressive Baltimore team that forced more INTS (2) than TDs (1) when they squared off earlier in the year. I know the Saints are supposed to have a better defense this year, but they aren’t enough to slow Warner.

Felix Jones over LaDainian Tomlinson
Jones will be sharing the load with Marion Barber III, but Barber is banged up. LT will also be sharing the load with Darren Sproles. I’m going with Jones’ big play ability rather than LTs’ 3.3 yards per carry.

Marques Colston over Vincent Jackson +2
They both will square off against Pro Bowl Cornerbacks. Colston will see a lot of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, which should slow him, but V-Jax faces the league’s best CB in Darrelle Revis.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

For the playoffs I will pick one matchup for Quarterback, Running Back, and Wide Receiver

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Jay Cutler over Tony Romo:  Winner Cutler 30.3, Romo 23.25
Knowshon Moreno vs. Thomas Jones:  Winner Moreno21.8, TJ 19.8
Matt Forte over Ricky Williams:  Winner Forte 12.4, Ricky 3.5
Nate Washington over Chad Ochocinco:  Winner Nate 8.3, Ocho 0.0
Steve Breaston over Miles Austin:  Loser Breaston 1.6, Austin 9.0
SS: Jason Snelling over Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower (individually)
Snelling:  Double Winner 16.8
Beanie:  1.9
Hightower:  2.8

Regular Picks:  4-1
Super Stretch Picks:  2-0
Overall:  6-1

Season Record
Regular Picks: 41-40-1
Super Stretch Picks:  8-12
Playoffs Picks:
Overall: 49-52-1

Wildcard Round Picks

Joe Flacco over Carson Palmer +2
Though I expect Flacco to lose and Palmer to win this weekend, I still think Flacco has the better fantasy performance. The Jets are so tough against the pass and Ocho errr Chad Johnson is banged up. I’ll spot Palmer two points to make it a fairer fight.

Cedric Benson over Thomas Jones +0.5
The running game is where I believe the Bengals will win this battle. I’ll spot Jones a half a point despite him having the better year.

Julian Edelman over Roy Williams and Chad Johnson (Individually)
Edelman filled in admirably for Wes Welker last week and should be productive again this week against Baltimore. Roy Williams and Chad Johnson were both shutdown last week and I expect similar results this week against the Eagles and Jets respectively.

Happy Anniversary Mom & Dad!

Before we get started, check out my Week 17 NFL picks.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Alex Smith over Peyton Manning:  Winner Smith 15.2, Peyton 9.6
Beanie Wells over LaDainian Tomlinson:  Loser Beanie15.3, LT 18.3
Ryan Grant over Steven Jackson:  Incomplete Grant 21.7, S-Jax DNP
Chad Ochocino over Brandon Marshall +2:  Ocho 8.9, Marshall (actual +2) 6.2 (4.2 actual +2)
Jermichael Finley over Brent Celek:  Loser Finley 8.0, Celek18.1
SS: Jason Snelling over Jamaal Charles:  Loser Snelling 7.4, Charles 12.4

Regular Picks:  2-2
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall:  2-3

Season Record
Regular Picks: 37-39-1
Super Stretch Picks:  6-12
Overall: 43-51-1

Week 17 Picks

Jay Cutler over Tony Romo
Cutler is coming off a big game against the Vikings. He should dominate the Lions and actually make a run at evening his TD to INT ratio. Philadelphia will wake up the echoes of Romo’s December struggles.

Knowshon Moreno vs. Thomas Jones
I’m going with the Rookie over the veteran in this Week 17 match-up. Moreno faces Kansas City’s 31st ranked run defense (161.3 yards per game). Thomas Jones faces Cincinnati’s 2nd ranked run defense (87.7 ypg). The Bengals have allowed half as many rushing TDs as well.

Matt Forte over Ricky Williams
It’s been a forgettable year for Matt Forte as he saw a significant drop in his production. Ricky Williams was the exact opposite. This week though, it will look more like everybody anticipated from these two. Forte should destroy the Lions’ 24th ranked run defense (125.7 ypg) while Ricky should struggle against the Steelers’ 3rd ranked run defense (89.3 ypg). Pittsburgh has allowed 12 fewer rushing TDs.

Nate Washington over Chad Ochocinco
Washington takes on Seattle, who has allowed 27 passing TDs on the year. Washington is a good bet to burn them deep. Meanwhile Ochocinco has to lock horns with Darrelle Revis, who has been shutting WRs down all year.

Steve Breaston over Miles Austin
Breaston faces Green Bay, who despite ranking 12th with 220.7 passing yards per game, have allowed 28 passing TDs. That ranks them 29th in the league in that category. The Eagles held Austin to just one catch the last time they played. I’m expecting Romo to struggle so why not hitch my cart to that prediction.

SUPER STRETCH

Jason Snelling over Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower (individually)
I suspect that Michael Turner will be out again this week, which means Snelling would get the bulk of the work. He takes on Tampa Bay, who ranks 30th against the run (156.5 ypg) with 16 rushing TDs allowed. Beanie and Hightower are both capable of putting up solid games, though they will likely struggle against Green Bay’s #1 run defense (85.7 ypg, 5 TDs).

Before we get started, check out my Week 16 NFL picks.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Matt Hasselbeck over Brett Favre:  Winner Hasselbeck 17.1, Favre 11.2
Jamaal Charles over Rashard Mendenhall +2:  Winner Charles 23.0, Mendenhall 19.1 (17.1 actual +2)
Arian Foster over Ryan Grant:  Loser Foster 2.0, Grant 9.7
Randy Moss over DeSean Jackson:  Loser Moss 13.0, DeSean 20.9
Jermichael Finley over Jason Witten:  Winner Finley 13.4, Witten 4.4
SS:  Quinton Ganther over DeAngelo Williams:  Winner Ganther 10.0, D-Will 1.6

Regular Picks:  3-2
Super Stretch Picks:  1-0
Overall:  4-2

Season Record
Regular Picks: 35-37-1
Super Stretch Picks:  6-11
Overall: 41-48-1

Week 16 Picks


Alex Smith over Peyton Manning
I pair these former #1 picks that have had completely different paths to where they are today. Manning is having the second best season of his Hall of Fame career. Alex Smith is coming off a bad game against the Eagles, but has been very productive of late. Smith should absolutely pick apart the Lions this week. Meanwhile, there is debate as to how much Manning will play this week. Plus, the Jets defense is tough against the pass.

Beanie Wells over LaDainian Tomlinson
I pit a young, talented RB just kicking off his career against a Hall of Fame RB winding down his career. Both RBs have picked up steam as the season went on, but I feel it’s Beanie who will be more productive this week as he takes on St. Louis. LT goes up against Tennessee, who despite the recent injuries on defense, should put up more of a fight. That and they struggle defending the pass, which means Philip Rivers and Co. will be very busy.

Ryan Grant over Steven Jackson
Grant is quietly putting together another solid year. He should go over 1200 yards, possibly this week as he takes on a Seattle team that’s going nowhere. December has been his best month as he has 8 TDs in 11 games, vs. 9 in the remaining 34. Jackson is gutting it out despite being all banged up. Jackson is playing on the road, where he averages 28.1 fewer total yards and has scored just one TD.

Chad Ochocino over Brandon Marshall +2
Marshall and Ocho have very similar numbers this year with Marshall having a slight edge. I believe that Ocho will score again this week to honor his fallen teammate. Marshall is playing in Philly so I’ll spot him 20 yards.

Jermichael Finley over Brent Celek
I’m going to ride Finley’s hot hand again as he takes on Seattle’s putrid pass defense. The Broncos are going to give the Eagles a fight, and I’m lowering my expectations on all of their offensive stars.

SUPER STRETCH

Jason Snelling over Jamaal Charles
Snelling should get to run as the lead back as the Falcons take on Buffalo’s league-worst run defense. Not only will he get the bulk of the carries between the 20′s, but will get the rock at the stripe. Charles has been amazing the second half of the season, but runs into a stingy Cincinnati run defense in what should be an emotional home game for the Bengals.