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Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Quarterback


Brett Favre over Eli Manning
I’ll take the oldest QB in the league over the richest one.  Favre likes the attention, and I think he puts on a show against Cleveland in his first game in purple. Eli faces what should be a tough Washington D.  He’ll probably win ugly, but if you start him, you probably won’t follow suit.

Running Backs


Darren Sproles over Derrick Ward
Ward was drafted a lot earlier than Sproles in fantasy drafts, but I expect Sproles to make a bigger impact in the NFL’s opening week.  LT is healthy, but San Diego should destroy Oakland, giving the diminutive back ample opportunity to produce in mop up duty.  Ward once again finds himself in a three-back system to Cadillac Williams and Earnest Graham.  Until that mess sorts itself out, I can’t trust any of them.

Chester Taylor over LenDale White
Chester Taylor should also get plenty of work in mop up duty.  I expect the Vikings to pound the Browns and Taylor should be active both in catching and running the football.  LenDale’s value soars when he can score and when he’s closing out football game protecting a lead.  I don’t see either scenario taking place as the Titans open with the Steelers.

Wide Receivers

Chad Ochocinco over Dwayne Bowe
Ochocinco had a horrible 2008 season as he simply mailed it in.  I think he’ll be looking to get off to a great start in 2009.  He has to share with Chris Henry and Laveranues Coles and didn’t really get a chance to get in rhythm with Carson Palmer, which tempers my expectations, but Bowe faces Baltimore and has pleny of questions as well.  Kansas City has the look of a very bad team.  They’ll have trouble getting first downs, let alone putting points on the board.

Marques Colston over Andre Johnson
Colston also had a down year in 2008, but that was because of injuries and not a lack of effort.  With the Saints hurting at Running Back, Drew Brees and company will carry the load.  The Detroit Lions hardly stand a chance.  Andre in an unbelievable talent, but Matt Schaub’s health is always a question.  I fully expect the Jets to put the pressure on Schaub, which could lead to an early exit.  Johnson usually has a couple of stinkers every  year.  I’m banking that this will be one of them.

SUPER STRETCH:

Peyton Hillis over Clinton Portis
I don’t think I can be accused of not taking a big risk on this one.  I think Hillis will be active for the Broncos as Josh McDaniels makes his debut against Cincinnati.  Portis starts off with a tough matchup against the Giants on the road.  I think Hillis will score, which will be the difference.

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Previous Lock to Win Picks:  NE (W), NYG (W),  BUF (W), SD (W), DAL (W), WAS (L), HOU (W), NYJ (W), JAX (L), CAR (W), PHI (Tie), CHI (W), TENN (W), MN (W), INDY (W), NO (W), ATL (W)

Previous Lock to Lose Picks:  STL (W), BUF (L), CIN (W), KC (L), MIA (L), DET (W), SEA (W), NO (L), OAK (W), CHI (W), HOU (W), SD (W), PHI (L), CLE (W), SF (W), JAX (W), TENN (W)

Regular Season Lock Picks: 25-8-1 (.750)
Regular Season Total:  159-96-1 (.623)
Playoffs: 5-6 (.455)
Pro Bowl:  0-1
Overall:  164-103-1 (.614)

Last Week
Jay Cutler (2.3) beat Kurt Warner (0.4), but lost to Peyton Manning (11.55) WHICH I SPLIT.
Adrian Peterson (12.3) beat Michael Turner (0.4) WHICH I LOST.
Larry Fitzgerald (20.1) killed Brandon Marshall (4.4) WHICH I LOST.

Record:  1-3

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

Just becasue the season is over, I’m not done.  For the Pro Bowl I will pick one matchup for Quarterback, Running Back, and Wide Receiver.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard. 

Last Week
Kurt Warner (30.85) beat Ben Roethlisberger +3 [20.0 (17.0 actual plus 3 spotted points)] WHICH I WON.
Edgerrin James +2.5 [8.6 (6.1 actual plus 2.5 spotted)] beat Willie Parker (5.1) WHICH I LOST.
 Santonio Holmes +1.5 [20.6 (19.1 actual plus 1.5 spotted) beat Anquan Boldin (8.4) WHICH I LOST.

Record: 

Season Record
Regular Picks:  52-33 (.612)
Super Stretch Picks:  8-8 (.500)
Playoff Picks:  8-4 (.667)
Overall:  68-45 (.602)

PRO BOWL PICKS

Quarterback
    
Jay Cutler over Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning (not combined)
The last thing on Kurt Warner’s mind after the difficult Super Bowl defeat is going to be the Pro Bowl.  He’ll play early and hand over the reigns to Drew Brees and Eli Manning.  Cutler will spell Peyton Manning and go on the offensive.  He’ll likely play the most of any AFC QB.  I’m picking Cutler as my Pro Bowl MVP.

Running Back
  
Michael Turner over Adrian Peterson
Adrian Peterson is the reigning Pro Bowl MVP.  I think he’ll take it a little easier this year.  Michael Turner will showcase his skills in his first trip to the Pro Bowl.  

Wide Receiver
  
Brandon Marshall over Larry Fitzgerald
Larry put on enough of a show during the playoffs.  I see him keeping a low profile in Hawaii.  I have a feeling Cutler and Marshall will hook up on a TD pass.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

For the playoffs I will pick one matchup for Quarterback, Running Back, and Wide Receiver

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard. 

Last Week
Donovan McNabb 33.85 beat Kurt Warner +1 [32.95 (31.95 actual plus spotted point)] WHICH I WON. 
Edgerrin James (8.9) over Willie Parker (4.5) WHICH I WON. 
Kevin Curtis (12.2) over Derrick Mason (4.1) WHICH I WON. 

Record:  3-0

Season Record
Regular Picks:  52-33 (.612)
Super Stretch Picks:  8-8 (.500)
Playoff Picks:  7-2 (.778)
Overall:  67-43 (.609)

SUPER BOWL PICKS

Quarterback
 
Kurt Warner over Ben Roethlisberger +3
Arizona has relied on the passing game all year, and they aren’t about to change because it’s the Super Bowl.  Pittsburgh has a stout D, but the Cards should be able to move the chains through the air.   Since Warner is an easy choice I’ll spot Big Ben 3 points, which amounts to 60 yards.

Running Back
  
Willie Parker over Edgerrin James +2.5
I think Willie Parker has the potential to be Pittsburgh’s top Offensive threat on Super Bowl Sunday so I don’t mind spotting Edge 25 yards.  Although Edge is more likely to score a TD in my opinion, I’m guessing neither reach paydirt.  Willie will pile up the yards in the 4th Quarter as Pittsburgh runs out the clock.  Edge will have a hard time cracking 50 yards against this powerhouse.

Wide Receiver
  
Anquan Boldin over Santonio Holmes +1.5
Larry Fitzgerald has had a remarkable playoff run, and I feel Pittsburgh will key in on him to try to slow him down.  Giving less attention to Boldin, especially when he had ample time to rest, could be costly for the Steelers.  I think Warner does what he can to make Boldin forget about the Conference Championship.  Even if he goes, Hines Ward will likely be slowed a bit.  Santonio Holmes will have to step his game up.  He’s capable of it, but I still have more faith in Boldin.  Therefore, I’ll spot Holmes 15 yards.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

For the playoffs I will pick one matchup for Quarterback, Running Back, and Wide Receiver

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard. 

Last Week
Jake Delhomme (14.25) beat Eli Manning (8.45) WHICH I WON. 
Willie Parker (26.6) beat Chris Johnson (16.0) WHICH I WON. 
Justin Gage +1.5 [15.0 (13.5 actual + 1.5)] beat Muhsin Muhammad (5.5) WHICH I LOST. 

Record:  2-1

 Season Record
Regular Picks:  52-33 (.612)
Super Stretch Picks:  8-8 (.500)
Playoff Picks:  4-2 (.667)
Overall:  64-43 (.598)

Running Back
 
Edgerrin James over Willie Parker
Both of these backs have had playoff success after disappointing regular seasons.  I think Edge is more likely to continue his resurgence since he doesn’t have to face Baltimore.  Not that Philly is a pushover, but the Ravens are playing some sick ball right now.

Wide Receiver
  
Kevin Curtis over Derrick Mason
I am categorizing this one in the “hunch department”.  I see McNabb relying heavily on Curtis to get to the Super Bowl.  Westy is banged up and he’ll go to the vet rather than rookie DeSean Jackson.  Mason has to face a tough Pittsburgh D that won’t take it easy like they did last week at the end of the Chargers victory.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

For the playoffs I will pick one matchup for Quarterback, Running Back, and Wide Receiver

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard. 

Last Week
Donovan McNabb (19.0) beat Philip Rivers (12.15) WHICH I WON.
Adrian Peterson +3 [23.3(20.3 actual plus 3 spotted points) beat Michael Turner (10.9) WHICH I LOST.
Derrick Mason (7.1) beat Vincent Jackson (0.0) WHICH I WON.
Record:  2-1

Season Record
Regular Picks:  52-33 (.612)
Super Stretch Picks:  8-8 (.500)
Playoff Picks:  2-1 (.667)
Overall:  62-42 (.596)

Running Backs
 
Willie Parker over Chris Johnson
Here’s another case where a player, Parker in this case, faces a more fantasy friendly Defense against San Diego than Johnson does against Baltimore.  Pittsburgh is going to want to limit the hits on Big Ben so Parker can make up for a disappointing regular season with a heavy workload.  The Ravens are playing incredible football right now.  I wouldn’t want to face them.

Wide Receiver
 
Muhsin Muhammad over Justin Gage +1.5
I’ll take the elder statesman in this battle of former Chicago Bear teammates.  Mushin plays fourth fiddle behind the aforementioned Smith and the Panthers running tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  The playoffs, though, often come down to unheralded players making big plays.  Gage is the first option when Tennessee is passing, but Baltimore should make that tough.  I’m spotting Gage 15 yards.

Divisional Round Picks

Quarterback
  
Jake Delhomme over Eli Manning
They both rely heavily on their rushing attack.  I give Delhomme a slight edge for the simple fact that he has Steve Smith at his disposal.  He’s also facing a  Cardinal Defense that, on paper, looks inferior to the Eagles.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

For the playoffs I will pick one matchup for Quarterback, Running Back, and Wide Receiver

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard. 

Last Week
Tyler Thigpen (13.95) beat Tony Romo (10.25) WHICH I WON.
LaDainian Tomlinson (27.6) beat Thomas Jones (2.4) WHICH I WON.
Cedric Benson (19.0) beat Ronnie Brown (7.2) WHICH I WON.
Antonio Bryant (7.7) beat Eddie Royal ( 7.6) WHICH I LOST.
Steve Smith (13.4) beat Vincent Jackson (7.7)  WHICH I LOST.
  
Super Stetch:  Jason Campbell (21.7) beat Vince Young (5.25) & David Carr (11.0) [16.25] WHICH I LOST.

Regular Picks:   3-2
Super Stretch Picks: 0-1   
Overall:  3-3

Season Record
Regular Picks:  52-33 (.612)
Super Stretch Picks:  8-8 (.500)
Overall:  60-41 (.594)

Wildcard Playoff Picks

Quarterback
 
Donovan McNabb over Philip Rivers
It was unlikely that either of the QBs would be playing this weekend a couple of weeks ago.  Not only do I give McNabb’s team a better chance of winning, I think he’ll put up better numbers than Rivers this weekend.  McNabb faces the 18th ranked Pass D of the Vikings while Rivers goes up against sixth ranked Indianapolis, who has allowed a league low six TD passes.  Rivers did have two of those TDs back in Week 12, but the playoffs are a different animal.  Jim Johnson will do his best to mix up Tarvaris Jackson, which should lead to some short fields for McNabb. 

Running Backs
  
Michael Turner over Adrian Peterson +3
I am so confident that Michael Turner will roll over the Cardinals that I am spotting the Rushing Champ 3 Points.  All season long Turner has exploited bad Run Defenses.  Arizona is middle of the road (16th) at 110.3 yards allowed per game, but have been very vulnerable down the stretch.  Peterson faces the fourth-ranked Philly Run D, who are tied for second with seven TDs allowed.  Unless AP breaks a long one, I do not see him having a big game.

Wide Receiver
  
Derrick Mason over Vincent Jackson
Vincent Jackson has been a force down the stretch, but I’m going with the steady veteran in this battle.  Jackson caught one of the aforementioned Rivers TD passes against Indy back in Week 12, but I’m not confident he’ll come through again.  Meanwhile Mason faces Miami’s 25th ranked Pass D.  Mason is saavy enough to exploit that D.