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Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

For the playoffs I will pick one matchup for Quarterback, Running Back, and Wide Receiver

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Jay Cutler over Tony Romo:  Winner Cutler 30.3, Romo 23.25
Knowshon Moreno vs. Thomas Jones:  Winner Moreno21.8, TJ 19.8
Matt Forte over Ricky Williams:  Winner Forte 12.4, Ricky 3.5
Nate Washington over Chad Ochocinco:  Winner Nate 8.3, Ocho 0.0
Steve Breaston over Miles Austin:  Loser Breaston 1.6, Austin 9.0
SS: Jason Snelling over Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower (individually)
Snelling:  Double Winner 16.8
Beanie:  1.9
Hightower:  2.8

Regular Picks:  4-1
Super Stretch Picks:  2-0
Overall:  6-1

Season Record
Regular Picks: 41-40-1
Super Stretch Picks:  8-12
Playoffs Picks:
Overall: 49-52-1

Wildcard Round Picks

Joe Flacco over Carson Palmer +2
Though I expect Flacco to lose and Palmer to win this weekend, I still think Flacco has the better fantasy performance. The Jets are so tough against the pass and Ocho errr Chad Johnson is banged up. I’ll spot Palmer two points to make it a fairer fight.

Cedric Benson over Thomas Jones +0.5
The running game is where I believe the Bengals will win this battle. I’ll spot Jones a half a point despite him having the better year.

Julian Edelman over Roy Williams and Chad Johnson (Individually)
Edelman filled in admirably for Wes Welker last week and should be productive again this week against Baltimore. Roy Williams and Chad Johnson were both shutdown last week and I expect similar results this week against the Eagles and Jets respectively.

Happy Anniversary Mom & Dad!

Before we get started, check out my Week 17 NFL picks.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Alex Smith over Peyton Manning:  Winner Smith 15.2, Peyton 9.6
Beanie Wells over LaDainian Tomlinson:  Loser Beanie15.3, LT 18.3
Ryan Grant over Steven Jackson:  Incomplete Grant 21.7, S-Jax DNP
Chad Ochocino over Brandon Marshall +2:  Ocho 8.9, Marshall (actual +2) 6.2 (4.2 actual +2)
Jermichael Finley over Brent Celek:  Loser Finley 8.0, Celek18.1
SS: Jason Snelling over Jamaal Charles:  Loser Snelling 7.4, Charles 12.4

Regular Picks:  2-2
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall:  2-3

Season Record
Regular Picks: 37-39-1
Super Stretch Picks:  6-12
Overall: 43-51-1

Week 17 Picks

Jay Cutler over Tony Romo
Cutler is coming off a big game against the Vikings. He should dominate the Lions and actually make a run at evening his TD to INT ratio. Philadelphia will wake up the echoes of Romo’s December struggles.

Knowshon Moreno vs. Thomas Jones
I’m going with the Rookie over the veteran in this Week 17 match-up. Moreno faces Kansas City’s 31st ranked run defense (161.3 yards per game). Thomas Jones faces Cincinnati’s 2nd ranked run defense (87.7 ypg). The Bengals have allowed half as many rushing TDs as well.

Matt Forte over Ricky Williams
It’s been a forgettable year for Matt Forte as he saw a significant drop in his production. Ricky Williams was the exact opposite. This week though, it will look more like everybody anticipated from these two. Forte should destroy the Lions’ 24th ranked run defense (125.7 ypg) while Ricky should struggle against the Steelers’ 3rd ranked run defense (89.3 ypg). Pittsburgh has allowed 12 fewer rushing TDs.

Nate Washington over Chad Ochocinco
Washington takes on Seattle, who has allowed 27 passing TDs on the year. Washington is a good bet to burn them deep. Meanwhile Ochocinco has to lock horns with Darrelle Revis, who has been shutting WRs down all year.

Steve Breaston over Miles Austin
Breaston faces Green Bay, who despite ranking 12th with 220.7 passing yards per game, have allowed 28 passing TDs. That ranks them 29th in the league in that category. The Eagles held Austin to just one catch the last time they played. I’m expecting Romo to struggle so why not hitch my cart to that prediction.

SUPER STRETCH

Jason Snelling over Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower (individually)
I suspect that Michael Turner will be out again this week, which means Snelling would get the bulk of the work. He takes on Tampa Bay, who ranks 30th against the run (156.5 ypg) with 16 rushing TDs allowed. Beanie and Hightower are both capable of putting up solid games, though they will likely struggle against Green Bay’s #1 run defense (85.7 ypg, 5 TDs).

Before we get started, check out my Week 17 NFL picks.

Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

We’ve already looked at the players who could struggle this week (click here for article). Now I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in if you are dealing with an injury or tough match-ups.

Kyle Orton, QB, Denver Broncos
If you are in a league that plays the season out, Orton is a decent option for Week 17. He takes on Kansas City, who’s in the bottom half with 22 passing TDs allowed. Brandon Marshall was quiet last week against the Eagles, for look for him to break out as the Broncos vie for a playoff spot.

Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans
The Titans playoff hopes were dashed by the Chargers last week, but VY is still playing for next year. Luckily for him, he gets to close out with Seattle who has one of the league’s worst passing defenses giving up 262.7 passing yards per game and 26 passing TDs.

Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Smith is another resurection project that should finish the season on a high note. He takes on the lowly Rams, who have allowed 246.1 passing yards per game and 21 TDs.

Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears
Cutler will try to salvage a forgettable 2009 season with a big game against the Lions, who are 31st with 274.9 passing yards allowed, and dead last with 31 passing TDs given up.

continue reading »

Before we get started, check out my Week 17 NFL picks.

I’m going to look at the match-ups each week and pick some fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

First off, avoid Colts starters like the plague. I’m sure you gathered that already from last week. San Diego has nothing to play for, so be leery of using their starters.

Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Romo has seemed to put the December Blues behind him, but with the division up for grabs, you can’t help but remember the egg he laid in Philadelphia to end last season. He’s playing at home this time, which should help, but keep in mind he averages just 237.9 passing yards at home. Plus, he has just one TD pass in each of his past two games.

Ricky Williams, RB, Miami Dolphins
Houston jumped out on Miami last week, which took Ricky out of the game. Pittsburgh will attempt to do the same this week. They also have one of the stingiest run defenses in the league allowing just 89.3 yards per game and six rushing TDs.

Ahmad Bradshaw & Brandon Jacobs, RBs, New York Giants
The Giants have pretty much mailed it in after their embarrassing loss to Carolina. Jacobs won’t likely play as he’s banged up and the Giants are out of it. Bradshaw will get the bulk of the work, but faces a Vikings team sporting a stingy run defense and still jockeying for playoff positioning.

Chad Ochocinco, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Ocho becomes Darrelle Revis’ latest victim. If I were him, I wouldn’t waste my time coming up with a TD celebration for this week.

Dwyane Bowe & Chris Chambers, WRs, Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos are reeling, but they are still tough against the pass allowing just 201.0 yards per game. Matt Cassel has struggled on the road averaging just 185.3 yards and 1 TD.

Happy Birthday Nicole!

Before we get started, check out my Week 15 NFL picks.

Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in if you are dealing with an injury or tough match-ups.

Jason Campbell, QB, Washington Redskins
Campbell has played relatively well the past three weeks 273.3 yards and 2.3 TDs. He faces a reeling Giants team that ranks 26th with 23 passing TDs allowed. Fred Davis, who has four TDs during that three-game stretch, should be able to exploit the G-Men over the middle.

Brady Quinn, QB, Cleveland Browns
Quinn has alternated stinkers with impressive performances. If the pattern stays true, he’s up for a big one. I wouldn’t put too much stock in that pattern, but will factor in his opponent. He faces Kansas City who is 24th in the league in pass yards and passing TDs allowed.

Quinton Ganther, RB, Washington Redskins
Ganther played well last week as the lead back against Oakland. He’ll have a stiffer test this week against the Giants. They don’t give up a lot of rushing yards, but are tied for 29th with 17 rushing TDs allowed. He’s not a bad play if you’re in a bind.

Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans
It appears that it’s Foster’s turn on the Texans RB merry-go-round. He’s got a great week to show his stuff as they face St. Louis, who ranks 27th in rushing yards allowed (147.2) and 31st in rushing TDs allowed.

continue reading »

Before we get started, check out my Week 15 NFL picks.

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick some fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

Indianapolis Colts’ Offense (Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark)
The Colts wrapped up home field advantage so they really have nothing to play for. They aren’t concerned with a perfect season, and will do everything in their power to keep them out of harm’s way. I wouldn’t expect many second-half minutes for this crew.

Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys
The Saints, unlike the Colts, have indicated that a perfect season is important to them, which is not good news for a team in a December funk. With each December loss, the pressure mounts on Romo. The Superdome is going to be incredibly loud, which will make it hard for the Boys to get into a rhythm. Oh, and the Saints have a pretty stout defense. They are tied for third with just 13 passing TDs allowed.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
In an even greater free fall than the Cowboys is the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers. They are in complete disarray. They are struggling to run the football, which will feed right into Green Bay’s hands. Green Bay is in a virtual tie for first with just 85.0 rushing yards allowed and ranks fourth with 4 rushing TDs allowed.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers
LT has been sharing the workload all season long, and will do some this week as well. He faces Cincinnati, who is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Vikings. They will be plenty motivated to put that behind them. Cincy is third in the league with 86.4 rushing yards allowed, and tied for ninth with 8 rushing TDs allowed.

Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons
Roddy is putting together another fine year, but draws the unfortunate match-up with Darrelle Revis.  Revis has been blanketing #1′s all season long, and Roddy is next in line. The Jets rank first with 160.4 passing yards and 7 passing TDs allowed.

Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers
Roddy isn’t the only person that will have to deal with a shutdown corner this week. Santonio Holmes will be blanketed by Charles Woodson. Green Bay is also tough against the pass, ranking third with 187.0 passing yards allowed.

Before we get started, check out my Week 14 NFL picks. Also check out this week’s Fourth & 1 Debate as we discuss unheralded players who will step in up this week (click here for the article).

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Philip Rivers over Drew Brees:  Loser Rivers 26.65, Brees 28.95
Matt Forte over Ricky Williams:  Winner Forte 15.6 Ricky 8.1
Jonathan Stewart over Ryan Grant: Winner J-Stew 18.6, Grant 4.1
Jeremy Maclin over Larry Fitzgerald:  Loser Maclin 8.3, Fitz 20.3
Austin Collie over Chris Chambers:  Winner Collie 7.8, Chambers 1.1
SS: Mike Thomas over Terrell Owens:  Loser Thomas 2.5, T.O. 3.1

Regular Picks:  3-2
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall:  3-3

Season Record
Regular Picks: 30-32-1
Super Stretch Picks:  4-11
Overall: 34-43-1

Week 14 Picks

Quarterbacks

Vince Young over Carson Palmer
VY is facing a St. Louis team that ranks 25th in total yards allowed (363.7) and 28th in points allowed per game (26.2). They are actually middle of the road in passing yards allowed per game (217.5), but VY is a unique athlete that can contribute with both his arm and his feet. I just don’t see the Rams containing him. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer takes on the Vikings, who are coming off a bad loss, on the road. Jared Allen failed to record even a tackle last week so you just know he’ll be looking for redemption. I wouldn’t want to be in his shoes.

Ben Roethlisberger over Tom Brady
This is a battle of multiple Super Bowl winners that find their teams in a free fall. I think they’ll both win this week, but I like Big Ben to put up better fantasy numbers. Big Ben plays Cleveland’s 26th ranked pass defense (246.1) The Browns have allowed 18 passing TDs on the year. Brady faces Carolina, who ranks 6th in passing yards allowed (192.4) and 5th in passing TDs allowed (12).

Ryan Fitzpatrick over Kyle Orton
Fitzpatrick has looked good at times.He as least has shown the ability to get the ball to T.O. and Lee Evans. He has a favorable match-up this week against Kansas City who ranks 28th with 250.6 passing yards allowed and 24th with passing TDs allowed (21). Orton takes on the Colts in Indianapolis. The Colts rank 4th with 11 passing TDs allowed.

Running Back

Jamaal Charles over Matt Forte +2
Who would have guessed coming into the year that I’d be spotting Matt Forte 20 yards in a head-to-head match-up with Jamaal Charles? Charles has averaged nearly 100 total yards and a score the last four weeks and has a juicy match-up against Buffalo’s league worst run defense (172.1 ypg). Forte takes on Green Bay’s 4th ranked run defense (97.2). The Pack has allowed just 4 rushing TDs.

Wide Receiver

Kevin Walter over Antonio Bryant
Walter has played decent over the last four games averaging five catches for 60 yards. He takes on Seattle who is 25th in passing yards allowed (243.5) and 28th in passing TD allowed (22). Bryant will have to deal with Jets shutdown corner Darrelle Revis. Have fun Antonio.

SUPER STRETCH

Joe Flacco over Brett Favre
Flacco hasn’t been nearly the same QB that he was earlier in the season. Things could change this week as he takes on Detroit’s league worst pass defense (274.8 yards, 28 TDs). Favre has struggled the past few seasons in December. He forced a couple of passes last week, which he’s avoided for most of the year. I’m afraid that he’s opened Pandora’s Box and he could do more of the same this week. He faces Cincinnati who ranks 12th in passing yards allowed (211.5), 8th in passing TDs allowed (13), and 6th in INTs (14).

Before we get started, check out my Week 14 NFL picks.

Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in if you are dealing with an injury or tough match-ups.

I told you about the guys who could struggle this week (click here for the article). Now, let’s look at some guys you can plug into your fantasy lineups as you look to advance in the fantasy playoffs.

Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Smith has thrown eight TDs the past three weeks and faces Arizona’s 30th ranked (257.8 yards allowed per game). Vernon Davis is having an unbelievable year and Michael Crabtree is developing into a big time WR. They are going to have to throw to keep up with Arizona making Smith a nice sleeper play for the opening round of the fantasy playoffs.

Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens
Flacco has regressed after starting the season off with a bang. He should be able to relive some of that early-season glory this week as he faces Detroit’s league-worst pass defense. They have allowed more passing  yards (274.8) and passing TDs (28) than any other team.

Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans
Who would have ever imagined that Alex Smith and Vince Young would be viable fantasy options in Week 14 when the season started? They couldn’t even beat out Kerry Shaun Hill and Kerry Collins respectively. VY faces St. Louis this week and he should produce with his arm and his feet. They just don’t have the athletes to keep up with him.

Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Charles has produced every week since taking over the starting gig. He should continue his strong play against the league’s worst run defense (172.1 ypc). The Bills are also 30th in the league with 16 rushing TDs allowed.
continue reading »

Before we get started, check out my Week 14 NFL picks.

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick five fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

Brett Favre, QB, Minnesota Vikings
Arizona made Brett Favre look human last week. It won’t get easier when he takes on Cincinnati’s 13th ranked pass defense this week. In his nine December since 2007 Favre is averaging 198.0 yards with 10 TDs and 15 INTs. Compare that to the 257.0 yards, 66 TDs and 27 INTs he had in the 35 September/October/November games, and you have an alarming trend.

Marion Barber III, RB, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys take on the red hot San Diego Chargers. They’ll likely have to turn to the air to keep up with the Chargers’ high-scoring offense. Dallas will probably be tight because if they drop a second consecutive December game, the heat will be on. Plus, Barber is splitting carries making him a unattractive start for the opening of the fantasy playoffs.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers
I didn’t look far for the other RB I think will struggle this week. LT faces Dallas’ 9th ranked run defense. He’s averaging just 3.3 yards per carry and 62.7 total yards per game. He’s made up for it with nine rushing TDs. That is the Cowboys’ strength though, as they have allowed just five rushing TDs all year. Plus, he’s no longer used in the passing game. When you stack up all the strikes against LT this week, he looks like a marginal fantasy play this week.

Antonio Bryant, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I know Bryant went on a ridiculous run last year around this time. I know he had 91 yards and a score in Week 12 and 116 yards in Week 13. However, I also know that he faces shutdown corner Darelle Revis this week. He’s been murder on #1 WRs this year, and I would hesitate to test him in the fantasy playoffs.

Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts
I know you can’t bench Wayne, but I would expect a decrease in production this week. He has only seven receptions for 67 yards the past two weeks. Meanwhile Dallas Clark has 88 yards, Pierre Garcon has 199, and Austin Collie has 88. Peyton Manning will hit the open man. With Champ Bailey draped on him all day, more often than not it won’t be Wayne.

Before we get started, check out my Week 13 NFL picks.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week

Aaron Rodgers over Drew Brees +1 and Tom Brady +1
Rodgers 29.9
Brees Loser 39.45 (38.45 actual)
Brady Winner 13.05 (12.05 actual)
Ricky Williams over Chris Johnson: Loser Ricky 17.5, CJ 24.6
Jason Snelling over Joseph Addai: Loser Snelling 3.3, Addai 8.2
Nate Burleson over Mike Sims-Walker: Tie Nate 4.6, Sims-Walker 4.6
Michael Crabtree over Steve Smith (CAR): Winner Crab 5.4, Smith 0.5
SS: Kyle Boller over Jason Campbell: Loser Boller20.7, Campbell 25.75

Regular Picks: 2-3-1
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall: 2-4-1

Season Record
Regular Picks: 27-30-1
Super Stretch Picks:  4-10
Overall: 31-40-1

Week 13 Picks

Quarterback

Philip Rivers over Drew Brees
Brees is coming off a monster win against the Patriots in which he lit them up like a Christmas tree. He’s due for a bit of a letdown as he takes on Washington on the road. The Skins have actually been solid against the pass, although they did play some of the worst QBs earlier in the year. Rivers should have an absolute field day against the Brownies.

Running Backs

Matt Forte over Ricky Williams
Forte should be able to put up big numbers both on the ground and through the air against the lowly Saints. Meanwhile Ricky has to face New England following an embarrassing loss. They focus on shutting Ricky down as Henne can’t beat them.

Jonathan Stewart over Ryan Grant
The Panthers best bet for winning is to pound to ball repeatedly with both J-Stew and D-Will. They should be able to do that with ease against Tampa Bay at home. Meanwhile, Ryan Grant faces Baltimore’s tough run defense.

Wide Receivers

Jeremy Maclin over Larry Fitzgerald
This match-up has concussion written all over it. Maclin should slide into the #1 role for the Eagles with DeSean Jackson likely to miss the game with a concussion. He should torch Atlanta. Meanwhile Fitz will likely have to deal with Matt Leinart again as Kurt Warner recovers from his concussion.

Austin Collie over Chris Chambers
The last time the Colts played Tennessee scored a pair of TDs. It’s really pick-your-poison will all the weapons at Peyton Manning’s disposal. The Titans will key in on Wayne, Clark, and Addai, which should allow Collie to make some plays. Chambers has been great since coming over to Kansas City from San Diego. This week he faces Champ Bailey and their tough pass defense.

SUPER STRETCH

Mike Thomas over Terrell Owens
David Garrard is so much better playing at home. With this week’s game in Jacksonville Thomas has a chance to put up real solid numbers. Meanwhile T.O. will have to lock horns with Darrelle Revis and the Jets. He’s been in the business of shutting down #1 WRs, and this week should be no different.