Is Chris Capuano Due For A Fall?

Jun 1, 2012


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Chris Capuano has been lights out this year with a 7-1 record, a sparkling 2.14 ERA, and a splendid 1.00 WHIP. To say he’s been one of the biggest early season surprises would be a pretty massive understatement. While it’s been an amazing run, can he keep it up or is he due for a fall?
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Even with his great start, his career record is just 64-65. He had a solid 18-12 in 2005 for the Brewers, but that was ages ago. From 2006-2011 he combined to go 31-40. He has one .500 season and one +.500 season.
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Plus, Capuano has lower water marks of a 3.95 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Could pitching in Los Angeles be that much of a difference? It’s worked so far, but there are some indicators that regression is likely.
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For starters, his BABIP is .226, which is well below his .296 career mark, which ranks among the league leaders in lowest BABIP. Statistics generally tend to balance themselves out so a change in luck would not be surprising. If some of those balls in play start finding their way through for hits, his WHIP and EEA could see an increase.
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Capuano has a strand rate of 84.2 percent, which is also dramatically better than his career 73.3 percent mark. Another number that could increase is his 6.8 percent HR/FB, which is close to half his 11.5 percent career mark. Yes, Dodger Stadium helps that ratio, but he was at 12.0 percent for the Mets last year.
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Capuano has also had unbelievable success against right-handed batters. His BAA is .182 with a .582 OPS. For his career he is at .271 and .719. He’s actually been tougher on righties than lefties this year. That number is likely to change.
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Obviously you have to keep rolling Capuano out there as long as he’s dominating, especially for home starts where he’s 5-0 with a 1.36 ERA.
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Listen to offers for him though. Even try to be proactive and see what you can get for him. The odds of continued success are not in his favor so selling high could be a wise decision.
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