Is C.J. Spiller Overvalued?

Jul 26, 2010


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I think C.J. Spiller is so full of talent that it oozes out of his pores. The kid is going to be the real deal. I just think people should lower their expectations for him in his first year. In keeper leagues, by all means he should be flying off the draft boards, but in standard leagues, he’s going a bit early for my tastes.

 

According to Mock Draft Central, Spiller has an ADP of 59, 27th among running backs. I have him a few slots down on the RB rankings (click to see my 2010 RB rankings), but there are players going after Spiller that I would absolutely prefer over the rookie.

 

For example, proven RBs like Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Marion Barber, and Clinton Portis are higher on my list. Spiller is also going before Jason Witten, Hines Ward, Tony Gonzalez, Brent Celek, among others.

 

So why would I wait on drafting Spiller so early? For starters he’s in a terrible offense. Buffalo ranked 28th in points last year with a mere 16.1 per game. They were 30th in passing yards per game at 157.2. The Bills ranked 16th with 116.7 rushing yards per game, and therein lies the problem.

 

The Bills weren’t hurting at RB when they drafted Spiller. Sure, they’ve had it up to their ears with Marshawn Lynch, but Fred Jackson quietly had a solid season. He had 1433 total yards (1062 rushing, 371 receiving) and 4 TDs (2 rushing, 2 receiving). Plus, the Bills have been unable to find a partner in a Marshawn Lynch trade, meaning they have three capable running backs.

 

Like I said, I love Spiller in keeper leagues, but I would want him as an RB3 or a flex player. I much rather make sure I had quality starters at QB, RB, WR, and possible TE (depending on who’s available) before I take part of a RBBC at best, or a three-headed monster at worst, for one of the most anemic offenses in the league.

 

Prediction:  950 total yards (700 rushing, 240 receiving), 6 TDs (4 rush, 2 rec)

 

What do you expect from C.J. Spiller?

 

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