Can the New England Patriots Past Super Bowl Odds Help Predict This Year’s Outcome?

Jan 24, 2017

The New England Patriots open Super Bowl 51 as three point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons.  This is the seventh time curing the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era that the Patriots have played in the Super Bowl. A look back at how those previous Patriots Super Bowl teams did against the spread should give you some direction when you are sports betting online in this year’s Super Bowl.
Before we look back, however, a quick look at how the Patriots and Falcons did this year. New England went an NFL best 14-2 while Atlanta went 11-5. Atlanta had the most prolific offense (540 points), scoring 71 more points that the next closest (New Orleans Saints). That Pats finished third at 441 points.  Defensively, New England allowed the fewest points at 250. Atlanta finished 27th with 406 points allowed. New England had the best scoring differential at +191 while Atlanta’s high-octane offense allowed them to finish second at +134. The numbers don’t lie. The top two teams are competing for the Super Bowl.
Now that we dove deeper into this year’s numbers, let’s take a look back.
Super Bowl XXXVI (2002) – New England Patriots vs. St. Louis Rams
Final Score:  20-17 Patriots
The Patriots entered the game as 14 point underdogs against the Greatest Show on Turf. They shocked the world and started a dynasty by winning the game outright.
Super Bowl XXXVII (2004) – New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers
Final Score:  32-29 Patriots
The Patriots were favored this time by a touchdown. They won the game, but lost against the spread.
Super Bowl XXXIX (2005) – New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Final Score:  24-21 Patriots
Again the Patriots were favored by a touchdown. Again they won, but lost against the spread.
Super Bowl XLII – New England Patriots vs. New York Giants (2008)
Final Score:  17-14 Giants
The Patriots were heavy favorites in this one, but this time they were the ones that got shocked.
Super Bowl XLVI – New England Patriots vs. New York Giants (2012)
Final Score:  21-17 Giants
Once again the Pats were favorites, but ended up losing yet again to the Giants.
Super Bowl XLIX – New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks (2015)
Final Score:  28-24 Patriots
The Seahawks were slight favorites and were a Malcolm Butler improbably goal line interception away from covering. He made the play and the Pats got the win.
Overall the Patriots are 2-4 against the spread in Brady and Belichick’s six Super Bowl appearances. Past history suggests that the smart bet is Atlanta, but it’s hard to go against Belichick with two weeks to prepare.

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