Fantasy Baseball 2012: Buy Low Pitchers
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By Jordan Hall
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The All-Star Break gives fantasy owners just the break they need. It is right about the halfway point and the right time to make a move for the second half. At this point it’s time to throw out the preseason rankings and swallow your pride to put your team over the top. While it is hard to make a move for a big bat, pitchers can be easy to come by. That is why I always recommend making the big move to upgrade your staff over your lineup. In an average league, there are just as many pitching categories as hitting. Starting pitchers affect the same amount of these as your average hitter. Pitching is universally cheaper than hitting. Upgrading it just makes more sense. Here are six pitchers who are being undervalued that can be a major contributor down the stretch.
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First of all is Matt Harrison. Currently ranking 25th on ESPN’s player rater, Harrison already has 11 wins and has a WHIP of 1.24. While the strikeouts aren’t there yet, he plays for a good team and has plenty of good influences around him, pushing him to greatness. He just made the All-Star team so his confidence must be brimming. It’s a great time to snag him before his value rises too much more.
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Jason Hammel has been absolutely dirty this year. He has been a classic change of scenery breakout guy. He truly has been a four-category contributor. He already has eight wins, is approaching 100 strikeouts, and his peripherals are solid. His Orioles are in the thick of a pennant race so there is plenty of incentive to keep up the high level of performance.
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Dan Haren has been pretty bad so far this year. A 4.53 ERA and 1.37 WHIP are certainly not helping your team. He is not striking guys out like usual either. With that being said, he is known as a second half pitcher. He isn’t usually this bad in the first half, but he always rebounds after the break. Go get him now before he starts to show signs of life.
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At 58 on the player rater, James Shields‘ value continues to fall. He has still been striking guys out but a 1.40 WHIP is very uncharacteristic of the Rays ace. He has been hit able this year but his BABIP indicates that he has been getting unlucky. He has a magnificent track record and is a model of consistency. There is no reason to believe that his number won’t round into shape in the end.
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Jon Lester has been pretty poor so far this year as well. The strikeouts are down and the walks are up. The thing with Lester is that his velocity has not decreased and his stuff has not regressed. He was never a true ace and probably never will be but he certainly is better than he has pitched. His value couldn’t be any lower; it’s the perfect time to snatch him up. He looks primed for a resurgent second half; you definitely want it to happen on your team.
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Lastly, Matt Moore is a guy that you want for the second half. He has been exactly what everyone thought he was going to be, a high strikeout, high walk guy. His strikeout total is steadily rising and his peripheral numbers are steadily declining. I think he’s going to end the year as a top 25 pitcher. That is less value than where you probably drafted him, but certainly decent enough for it to be worth your while.
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Follow Jordan on twitter @lefthandsmoke23
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He is also the host of the Sports Bros Podcast on iTunes or sportsbrospodcast.podbean.com
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Questions or comments? Send them to sportsbrospodcast@gmail.com
trey
July 13th, 2012 at 8:25 am #
would you move lynn or miley for Lester for the second half.
my staff today is
latos, lynn, miley, fiers,scherzer,holland, jiminez
soriano, Aceves, Reed
start 7 Pitchers 2 SP 2 RP 3 P
12 team H2H
LestersLegends
July 13th, 2012 at 8:34 am #
I think that would be a good calculated risk.
tony
July 13th, 2012 at 8:35 am #
I’ve got Verlander, Cole Hamels, Dickey, Burnett, Bauer, Sherzer, and Haren for my starters. My closers are Kenley Jansen, Frieri, Janssen, and Wilhelmsen. I had a trade offer of receiving Shields in exchange for Kenley Jansen. Does this sound like a good trade? I feel I may not need more starters and the other closers, save Frieri, are a little meh.
LestersLegends
July 13th, 2012 at 8:45 am #
i think i’d stay put. you have a ton of good starters.
Kevin
July 13th, 2012 at 6:09 pm #
Haren has been a better 1st half pitcher in 5 of 6 years since 2006. He’s known as a decliner as the season goes on. I think you’ve got him pegged backwards.
That being said, this year is different. It’s a nagging back injury, so if he can get past that he’s only going to put up better numbers than his horrible first half. But it won’t be because of his nature.