Fantasy Baseball – Back to Earth Outfielders

Mar 4, 2009
Here’s a look at some Outfielders who could struggle to match their 2008 production. 

Johnny Damon – Damon had a great year for the Yankees (.303, 95 R, 168 H, 17 HR, 71 RBI, 29 SBs).  At 35 you expect him to slow down at some point.  I don’t expect him to completely drop off the map, but I’m putting him on a .290, 95 R, 14 HR, 65 RBI, 20 SB year.  Solid numbers, but there will be better values.

Ryan Ludwick – Ludwick came out of nowhere to hit .299 with 104 Runs, 161 Hits, 40 Doubles, 37 HRs, and 113 RBI.  Granted he played just 224 games, but from 2002-2007 he had 80 Runs, 160 Hits, 38 Doubles, 28 HRs, and 96 RBI.  He did have 14 HRs in 303 At Bats (21.6 AB/HR) in 2007, however that number dropped to 14.5 (37 HRs in 538 ABs) in 2008.  That’s quite a decrease.  I’m guessing he finds himself somewhere in between those numbers in 2009.  I’m seeing a .285, 85 R, 160 H, 32 Double, 28 HR, 100 RBI season for  him.  Not bad, but not in the elite company he shared last year. 

Xavier Nady – Nady didn not play nearly as well for the Yankees compared to what he did with the Pirates.

Bucs – 89 games, 327 ABs, .330, 50 R, 108 H, 26 2B, 13  HR, 57 RBI
Yanks – 59 games, 228 ABs, .268, 26 R, 61 H, 11 2B, 12 HR, 40 RBI

He’s going to have to share ABs with Nick Swisher, which will limit his production.  I’m predicting .280, 70 R, 130 H, 25 2B, 18 HR, and 75 RBI.

Pat Burrell – Pat leaves the launching pad in Philly for Tampa.  According to ESPN’s Park Factor, Citizens Bank Park ranked 11th for HRs while Tropicana Field ranked 25th.  That could put a damper on the 31 HRs Burrell has averaged over the past four seasons.  I think he’ll be down to 25 HRs and 75 RBI.

Jack Cust
- Cust has smashed a lot of HRs the past couple of seasons.  He has 59 in 876 At Bats (14.85 AB/HR).  The addition of Jason Giambi could cut into Cust’s At Bat totals, especially if he is the primary DH with Daric Barton manning First Base.  I’d be surprised to see Cust hit more than 20 bombs.

Photos courtsey of Icon SMI

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4 Responses so far | Have Your Say!

  1. wassup471
    March 9th, 2009 at 7:14 am #

    Jack Cust- the bane of consistency!

    How’s Adam Dunn’s production going to change? Any thoughts?

  2. LestersLegends
    March 9th, 2009 at 7:21 am #

    I think Dunn will be fine. He’s very consisent as well.

  3. Matthew Storey
    March 9th, 2009 at 3:23 pm #

    With Alex getting hurt, Swisher is going to be in the lineup a lot in NY and those at/bats are going to come at the expense of Damon, rather than Nady – since both Swisher and Nady are plus defenders with good arms and Damon is a pure Offensive player whose natural position (DH) is blocked by Matsui and Posada (whose bat is needed daily but won’t catch that often to rest the shoulder). Nady becomes the main source of RH power now and Swisher, Posada and Teixeira will bring more as Switch Hitters from the RH side.

    Damon’s Offensive game is not in decline, he is still a serious stud and if the Yankees had stayed in the race, he would have probably remained at his early year levels … he is at a point in his career where the WINNING fires his juices – this is likely to be a frustrating year since he fits SO well in the clubhouse and lineup, but is squeezed by his Defense. With Brett Gardner being a potential AL SB leader and playing a lot of CF, Damon could even lose his leadoff slot.

  4. LestersLegends
    March 9th, 2009 at 4:46 pm #

    great point matthew.

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