Fantasy Baseball – Back to Earth Pitchers
Fausto Carmona (19-8, 137 Ks, 3.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .248 BAA)
Fausto was 1-10 with a 5.42 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and a .298 BAA in 2006 before turning in one of the best years in the majors last year. I don’t see him returning to 2006 form, but I could see a dip in his production as Detroit and Chicago both improved their teams.
Scott Kazmir (13-9, 239 Ks, 3.48 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, .251 BAA)
An elbow strain, mild or not, gives me cause for concern from somebody I’m counting on to head my pitching staff. He’s not going to get any work in during Spring Training and could possibly miss a start or two (if not more). I’d still draft Kazmir, but I’m going to downgrade him a bit.
Ted Lilly (15-8, 174 Ks, 3.86 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .236 BAA)
Lilly’s return to the National League was quite successful. He matched his career high in wins, and set new highs in innings pitched, strikeouts, and WHIP. Not to mention his ERA was under 4.00 for just the second time in his career (3.69 in 2002). I think he’ll have a hard time matching those numbers.
John Maine (15-10, 180 Ks, 3.91 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .235 BAA)
Maine struggled after the All-Star Break going 5-6 with 5.53 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and a .261 BAA. That’s a trend I don’t like to see in a young pitcher. Not to mention the addition of Johan Santana will move him down the rotation.
Tim Wakefield (17-12, 110 Ks, 4.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, .264 BAA)
Wake matched his career high with 17 wins last season. Even with him moving up a spot in the rotation with the Schilling injury, I have a hard time believe he’ll win as many games this year. His ERA, WHIP, and K’s probably won’t fluctuate much.
Joe Borowski (45 Saves, 5.07 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, .289 BAA)
If his ERA, WHIP, and BAA are as elevated next year, he could find himself out of a job. Rafael Betancourt is there waiting in the wings.
Joe Nathan (37 Saves, 1.88 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, .209 BAA)
I just don’t think this Twins team is going to give Joe the opportunities to match last year. Plus, there is a chance he gets traded. If he goes to a contender to take over the closer gig, he gets a boost. If he goes to a contender to be a setup man, his value plummets.
Jose Velarde (47 Saves, 2.66 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .196 BAA)
I don’t trust Velarde because he was traded from Arizona to Houston. I don’t see his save total approaching last year’s mark. I’m guessing his WHIP and BAA increase as well.
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