Fantasy Baseball Buy Low Candidates – Hitters

May 6, 2009

We’re a month into the season and some fantasy owners may start to get uneasy about their team’s slow starts.  Where there’s panic, there is opportunity.  I’ve identified some players who are Buy Low candidates because of their slow starts. 

C – Russell Martin – Martin is hitting just .230 with as many HRs as you or I have.  May and June have  historically been his best months.  His average for those months is .301, compared to .272 in the other months.  He takes a bit of a tumble in August so he could be a Sell High candidate at the end of the Summer.

C – Brian McCann – McCann struggled at the plate prior to his stint on the DL for blurriness in his left eye.  He’s getting new glasses and should be back up soon.  McCann also struggles a bit in April hitting .274 compared to .299 in the other months.

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1B – Lance Berkman – Too say Berkman is struggling at the plate is a major understatement.  Historically, April has been his worst month with a .272 average compared to .304 in the other months.  His slugging percentage in April is twenty points below his career average.  He’s not really known for his slow starts, like a Mark Teixeira, so it’s possible you could acquire him at a bargain.  He’s still Lance Berkman so you’ll have to make a solid offer, but he could come at a slight discount.
 
Yankees Rangers Baseball
1B – Chris Davis – He was virtually everyone’s pick to break out this year.  He’s struggling to hit over .200.  The book isn’t very extensive on him, but he did hit .306 with 25 Runs, 10 HRs and 20 RBI in 29 June/July games last year.  Acquiring him would be a leap of faith.
 
2B – Brandon Phillips – He’s shown a little bit of power and a little bit of speed.  The average has been brutal.  Odds are if you own him, like me, you’ve already started other Second Basemen over him.  April is usually a solid month for him, so you’re taking a little risk in hoping he turns things around.
 
3B – Garrett Atkins – April is usually solid for Atkins, which it wasn’t, and May is pretty brutal.  He has just 36 May RBIs in his career.  The next closest month is April’s 63.  His stock could go even lower, but keep him on your radar.  Snag him before June, because that’s one of his top months with a .314 average and 90 RBI.  His best month is September (.321, 95 RBI) just in time for fantasy baseball playoffs if you’re in head-to-head leagues or to make that final push in roto leagues.
 
SS – Jimmy Rollins – J-Roll usually struggles out of the gates hitting .266 before June and .281 after it.  With his increased average, he sees an increase in Runs, HRs, RBIs, and SBs.  He’s a big name so it will likely take a decent offer to land him.

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SS – Alexei Ramírez – Not a lot to go on, but he did struggle last April as well hitting .138.  Most of his power came in the second half.  He had 7 HRs and 29 RBI in 231 pre-All-Star ABs and 14 HRs and 48 RBI in 249 post-All-Star ABs.  There isn’t much of a book on him, so it may be easier to trade for him than a Troy Tulowitzki, who is known as a slow starter.

OF – B.J. Upton – Upton is the inspiration behind this article.   He’s playing awful.  I’ve heard people looking to move him and cut their losses.  The only category he’s contributing in is SBs.  His average though is murdering teams. He’s a guy who has hit 24 HRs and stole 44 bases though.  In different years, but still.  The bad thing is he plays better in April and May than the Summer months.  It’s a big risk taking on someone that is struggling as badly as Upton is.  If you can get him for a song and a dance though, why not give him a spin.

OF – Matt Holliday – The switch to the Junior Circuit hasn’t been kind for Mr. Holliday.  I imagine he longs for some Coors Light and the thin Colorado air.  He isn’t scoring Runs, stealing bases, going deep, or hitting for average, but he is picking up RBIs, which leads me to believe that once he gets his hitting on point, the numbers will take off.

OF – Magglio Ordóñez – Magglio is off to a slow start, but that’s typical.  His career average in April is .282.  He hist .317 in the other months.  April is his top HR month with 51 though, so his two this year is discouraging.  When he’s good he’s great and that upside could be worth the risk of adding him of the price is right.

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DH – David Ortiz – Big Papi is hitting more like Russ Ortiz.  April is one of his worst months though.  He has hit .264 in April for his career, which is substantially lower than the .290 he hits in the other months.  It’s risky because he hasn’t shown signs that he’s the hitter he was before last year’s injury.  When he’s on though, he can carry a fantasy team.

Images courtesy of Icon SMI

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2 Responses so far | Have Your Say!

  1. David Funk
    May 6th, 2009 at 7:57 am #

    Despite historically slow starts and coming off an injury, I would never have thought that Big Papi wouldn’t have one homer on the season right now.

  2. LestersLegends
    May 6th, 2009 at 7:58 am #

    Agree.

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