Fantasy Baseball Profile: Should You Trust Octavio Dotel ?

Feb 19, 2010

Usually when I draft a closer I would hope he has topped 16 saves more than once in his career. If he doesn’t have a long track record as a closer, at least he’s the primary setup man. Strike two. Dotel has just two years of 30+ holds, and they date back to 2002 & 2003. If neither of those are the case, I hope he’s on a good team.  Foul tip. The Pirates are not good, but quality closers can come from bad teams. If those aren’t true, I hope he is full of potential. Strike three, you’re out. Dotel is 36 years old. You know who he is and what you’re going to get from him.

He struck out, but that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t want him. Certainly not as a top 15 closer (Click to see Closer Rankings), but he’s a decent #2 and a solid #3.

Why you ask? Because of his strikeout potential. He’s been a beast the past two years with the White Sox with 167 strikeouts in 129.3 innings (11.6 K/9). That’s nothing new for Dotel. In fact, he has 940 strikeouts in 770.3 career innings (11.0 K/9).

While I don’t expect a gaudy save total from Dotel given the circumstances, but he should have a fair share with a decent ERA and WHIP. His biggest plus will be those strikeouts. That and the value he’ll come with as he goes in the latter stages of your fantasy draft.

Prediction:  27 saves, 3.00 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 85 Ks

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox:  Jake Peavy
Cincinnati Reds:  Joey Votto
Cleveland Indians:  Grady Sizemore
Colorado Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez
Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera
Florida Marlins: Cameron Maybin
Houston Astros: Lance Berkman
Kansas City Royals: Billy Butler
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Howie Kendrick
Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney
Milwaukee Brewers: Corey Hart
Minnesota Twins: Joe Nathan
New York Mets: Jason Bay
New York Yankees: Robinson Cano
Oakland A’s: Kevin Kouzmanoff
Philadelphia Phillies: Jimmy Rollins

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5 Responses so far | Have Your Say!

  1. Rotoprofessor
    February 19th, 2010 at 9:24 am #

    I think you are being slightly unfair to Dotel, actually (at least we’re back to disagreeing). You also would’ve avoided Ryan Franklin and David Aardsma in ’09 (which is fair), and you would’ve missed out.

    Good closers often come from bad teams (i.e. Joakim Soria, who has emerged as one of the best). Everyone is going to win and it’s the bad teams that rarely blow people out.

    The concerns about Dotel should be two-fold:
    1) Injury
    2) Could be traded mid-season, losing his closers role

    Outside of that, he has the chance to be a Top 15 closer in 2010. I would draft him as a low-end #2 without hesitation.

  2. LestersLegends
    February 19th, 2010 at 9:37 am #

    It would help if you read the article.

    I said “I hope he’s on a good team. Foul tip. The Pirates are not good, but quality closers can come from bad teams.”

    “he’s a decent #2 and a solid #3″

    “Because of his strikeout potential. He’s been a beast the past two years with the White Sox with 167 strikeouts in 129.3 innings (11.6 K/9). That’s nothing new for Dotel. In fact, he has 940 strikeouts in 770.3 career innings (11.0 K/9).”

    “but he should have a fair share with a decent ERA and WHIP. His biggest plus will be those strikeouts. That and the value he’ll come with as he goes in the latter stages of your fantasy draft.”

    “Prediction: 27 saves, 3.00 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 85 Ks”

  3. Rotoprofessor
    February 19th, 2010 at 9:44 am #

    Sorry if I ssed the scope of the article. I do think he’ll be better than a #3 option, though, as long as he keeps the job. As you said, the strikeouts give him great value.

  4. LestersLegends
    February 19th, 2010 at 9:59 am #

    I hear ya. Your concerns make me want him as a third closer, but maybe as like a 20th closer. I just want to get to 3 closers before some get two.

  5. Frank
    February 19th, 2010 at 5:59 pm #

    As a #3 closer is a low-risk pick. If he doesn’t excel, then find someone else … but if he does 20, that’s acceptable. If 30, a steal.

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