Fantasy Football is 50% Luck and Zero Percent Luck

Aug 25, 2017

Andrew Luck
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Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is the online sportsbooks version of the Chinese Democracy album. When he underwent shoulder surgery in January we all thought – even though he was going to be out most, if not all, of the team’s offseason workout program – “yeah, sure, he’ll be ready for next season.” flash forward seven months and word is he might not be able to play until week 3 (and could actually miss six game if placed, unlikely as it may seem now, on the reserve/PUP list). That of course puts a damper not only on Luck’s fantasy value, but also that of his – currently Scott Tolzien’s – receiving unit; namely, T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and Jack Doyle – and even running back Frank Gore, for that matter.
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Luck. If he were healthy, Luck would rank right up there with the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. As a matter of fact, he finished 2014 as the No. 1 quarterback and was No. 4 in 2016 – but he played at least 15 games in each of those years. the Colts, as well as fantasy football owners could get by on Tolzien and Stephen Morris, as long as Luck’s absence doesn’t extend beyond a couple of regular season games.
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Hilton. Eugene’s ADP is currently at No. 30 overall as the No. 11 receiver off the board, behind players like Amari Cooper and Doug Baldwin – quite a fall from being a potential first-round pick. Hilton had career-bests in catches, yards, and targets, and scored six touchdowns in 2016. However, he had only 41 catches for 630 yards and two touchdowns in the 10 games that Luck missed in the last two years.
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Moncrief. Donte has a shoulder injury of his own to worry about in addition to Luck not playing. He put up just 30 catches for 307 yards on 56 targets last season, but managed nonetheless to add seven TDs. his only hope is that Tolzien targets him like he did in his only start in 2016 (11 targets for six receptions, 45 yards, and one touchdown). Otherwise he night justify being the No. 42 receiver being drafted at No. 116 overall.
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Doyle. Luck threw 12 of his 31 touchdowns to tight ends such as Jack Doyle, so his future is also hanging on the QB being healthy. Doyle’s ADP places him at the No.14 tight end at No. 135 overall.
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Gore. Frank’s could be the worst outlook of the bunch because in addition to Luck he needs center Ryan Kelly as well. Unfortunately, Kelly is currently struggling with a foot injury. Kelly’s absence detracts a lot from the running attack, and he is expected to be placed on injured reserve/designated to return – meaning he could be sidelined until week 9. To compound matters, Gore has 166 carries for 547 yards and three touchdowns, and 20 receptions for 169 yards and one touchdown in the last 10 games Luck has sat out. Furthermore, Gore had just three games with double Fantasy point digits in a standard league in that period.

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