Fantasy Football: Midseason Sell High Candidates

Nov 4, 2010


Image courtesy of Icon SMI

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By Grant Miller

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As I mentioned in my article on midseason buy-low candidates, every league has at least one guy who thinks it’s a good idea to buy high and sell low. As a conscious fantasy manager, your job is always to find that guy and take advantage of him. With the trade deadline looming in most Yahoo! leagues, it seems appropriate to evaluate our midseason sell-high candidates.
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Here are the winners:
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Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Palmer is currently seventh in the NFL passing yards, and seventh in TD passes … but do you really think he’s a top-7 QB? I don’t. With the Bengals sitting at 2-5 (lost 4 straight) and with their playoff hopes already fading, Batman and Robin (and Palmer) will soon become predictably frustrated. (See more on T.O. below.) If you can manage to package Palmer with another decent player for someone like Tom Brady, you should be all over that.
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Lester’s Take:  With two games against the Steelers, one against the Jets, and another against the Colts, I totally agree with this assessment.  Palmer is a complete feast or famine player. Four of his seven games he’s had fewer than 210 passing yards. Three of the games he’s had 345+ yards. Those kinds of wild swings can sink your fantasy season.
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David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Garrard is currently tied for second among all QBs with 15 TDs (13 passing, 2 rushing). Yet he sits between Matt Cassel and Kevin Kolb with 1098 passing yards (25th in the NFL). At face value, this indicates a considerable amount of luck, so some regression toward the mean is expected. (Translation: I expect Maurice Jones-Drew to start finding the end zone a bit more.)
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Lester’s Take: If your league allows you to hold off until after Week 11, that would be better as he takes on Houston and Cleveland after the bye. Then again, that could be your selling point. Another player I would try to move is Kyle Orton. As I stated in the Buy Low article, I believe Knowshon Moreno will pick up his production, which will make the team more balanced and lessen Orton’s gaudy stats.
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Thomas Jones, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Folks, it’s finally time for Jamaal Charles to be the top-10 (maybe top-5) back that he is. Jones is still a decent RB2 (he’s closing in on 10,000 career rushing yards, which should keep him motivated), but the Chiefs clearly featured Charles on Sunday, especially in overtime when they needed him most (Charles had 26 touches to Jones’ 20 overall). Todd Haley admittedly rides the hot hand with his RBs, and Charles should continue to be that hot hand. Also note that the Chiefs have possibly the softest remaining schedule in the NFL.
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Lester’s Take:  We saw what happened with Jones last year. Shonn Greene took over down the stretch. In an effort to keep Jones fresh for the playoffs (who would have predicted that before the season), the Chiefs could lean more on the younger legs of Charles like Grant suggested. The same goes LaDainian Tomlinson. The Jets already have a precedent of using Shonn Greene at the end of the season. LT could see fewer reps to keep him fresh for the playoffs.
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Brandon Lloyd, WR, Denver Broncos
Don’t get me wrong … I’m not saying that Lloyd won’t be a top-15 WR for the rest of the season. The upcoming schedule (especially the playoff weeks) looks really enticing. But considering that he’s leading the NFL in receiving yards … by more than 100 over Roddy White, the next-closest guy … his numbers are bloated right now. If you can manage to package him for one of the real top wide receivers that are currently slightly underachieving (Brandon Marshall, Marques Colston), I say go for it.
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Lester’s Take:  My only concern is that he’s not a big enough name to net you what he’s been worth.
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Terrell Owens, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Over each of the last few seasons, T.O. has always kept fantasy owners on the edge of their seats, just waiting for that harbinger that foreshadows his inevitable downfall. I think that might have happened on Sunday. By all accounts, Owens laid down on a couple of critical targets late in the fourth quarter against Miami, and Palmer was clearly frustrated with him. It’s not unreasonable to expect that Ochocinco might begin seeing a few of T.O.’s targets after that pitiful fourth-quarter performance on Sunday, leading to more frustration and eventually implosion. Recall where you drafted him and observe where he stands right now (5th in receiving yards), and toss the grenade before it explodes in your hand.
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Lester’s Take:  I agree here as well. He is a big name, and with his production you should be able to get good value for him.
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Marcedes Lewis, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Lewis is here mainly for the same reasons that I included Garrard above – his 25 receptions and 326 yards just should not translate into 7 TDs. But alas, they do.
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As Lester mentioned in the buy-low article, Dustin Keller’s owner might be looking for a TE switch right now. Vernon Davis might also be a good target. No matter who you go after, I wouldn’t be fooled into thinking that Lewis is having a “breakout year” – that is, unless you consider 50 catches and 650 yards to be breakout pace.
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Lester’s Take:  I’m on the fence with this one. If you can get good value for him, by all means make a move. However, the position is fairly deep and people may just stick with what they have. While I don’t think he’ll match his first half production, I still think he’s a solid second half play.
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Also check out:

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2 Responses so far | Have Your Say!

  1. joe o.
    November 4th, 2010 at 7:20 pm #

    I have mjd on a bye this week and im a little thin in my rb back ups. got blount off waivers this week, do you think he will perform well enough to start?

  2. LestersLegends
    November 4th, 2010 at 8:08 pm #

    I’d have no problem rolling with him this week.

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