Fantasy Football Out on a Limb 2009, Volume 1

Sep 10, 2009

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Quarterback

Brett Favre profile photo Eli Manning Profile Photo
Brett Favre over Eli Manning
I’ll take the oldest QB in the league over the richest one.  Favre likes the attention, and I think he puts on a show against Cleveland in his first game in purple. Eli faces what should be a tough Washington D.  He’ll probably win ugly, but if you start him, you probably won’t follow suit.

Running Backs

Darren Sproles profile Derrick Ward profile
Darren Sproles over Derrick Ward
Ward was drafted a lot earlier than Sproles in fantasy drafts, but I expect Sproles to make a bigger impact in the NFL’s opening week.  LT is healthy, but San Diego should destroy Oakland, giving the diminutive back ample opportunity to produce in mop up duty.  Ward once again finds himself in a three-back system to Cadillac Williams and Earnest Graham.  Until that mess sorts itself out, I can’t trust any of them.

Chester Taylor profile LenDale White profile
Chester Taylor over LenDale White
Chester Taylor should also get plenty of work in mop up duty.  I expect the Vikings to pound the Browns and Taylor should be active both in catching and running the football.  LenDale’s value soars when he can score and when he’s closing out football game protecting a lead.  I don’t see either scenario taking place as the Titans open with the Steelers.

Wide Receivers

Cincinnati Bengals 2009 Football Headshots Kansas City Chiefs 2009 Football Headshots
Chad Ochocinco over Dwayne Bowe

Ochocinco had a horrible 2008 season as he simply mailed it in.  I think he’ll be looking to get off to a great start in 2009.  He has to share with Chris Henry and Laveranues Coles and didn’t really get a chance to get in rhythm with Carson Palmer, which tempers my expectations, but Bowe faces Baltimore and has pleny of questions as well.  Kansas City has the look of a very bad team.  They’ll have trouble getting first downs, let alone putting points on the board.

Marques Colston profile Houston Texans 2009 Football Headshots
Marques Colston over Andre Johnson
Colston also had a down year in 2008, but that was because of injuries and not a lack of effort.  With the Saints hurting at Running Back, Drew Brees and company will carry the load.  The Detroit Lions hardly stand a chance.  Andre in an unbelievable talent, but Matt Schaub’s health is always a question.  I fully expect the Jets to put the pressure on Schaub, which could lead to an early exit.  Johnson usually has a couple of stinkers every  year.  I’m banking that this will be one of them.

SUPER STRETCH:

Denver Broncos 2009 Football Headshots Clinton Portis profile
Peyton Hillis over Clinton Portis
I don’t think I can be accused of not taking a big risk on this one.  I think Hillis will be active for the Broncos as Josh McDaniels makes his debut against Cincinnati.  Portis starts off with a tough matchup against the Giants on the road.  I think Hillis will score, which will be the difference.

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4 Responses so far | Have Your Say!

  1. theGM
    September 10th, 2009 at 8:47 am #

    I don’t really think Brett over Eli is going out on a limb as most people don’t consider Eli to be anywhere near Fantasy starter value.

    I also have to disagree with you on Colston vs Johnson. I like Colston but the Detroit D is MUCH better this year and the Jets pass defense is average at best. I like Johnson this week but in the same game I don’t like Slaton.

  2. LestersLegends
    September 10th, 2009 at 9:01 am #

    I don’t think Favre is a fantasy starter either. We’ll see about Colston vs. Johnson.

  3. Marc M from CR
    September 10th, 2009 at 12:19 pm #

    Totally agree on Colston over Johnson. Johnson goes vs. Darrell Revis, who is one of the top CB’s in the league.

    No healthy RB’s in NO means more balls in the air. Colston !

    Hillis is intriguing. He has some all around skills and no one drafted him in FFL leagues this summer.

    Disagree on Sporles vs. Ward. Ward gets more carries and Dallas D is better vs. the pass than the run. I think Cadillac gets hurt by week 3. Bucs paid Ward RB1 money so I don’t see him riding the pine much

  4. LestersLegends
    September 10th, 2009 at 12:23 pm #

    Hillis is a stretch, with Buck and Knowshon, I just think he gets some touches and finds the end zone. Ward is a better back to own, but I see SD putting a whooping on Oakland and Sproles cleans it up nicely. We’ll see.

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