Fantasy Football Out on a Limb 2009, Volume 10
Before we get started, click here for my Week 10 NFL picks.
Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.
Matt Hasselbeck over Tony Romo: Winner Hasselbeck 20.95, Romo 19.05
Maurice Jones-Drew over Knowshon Moreno and Rashard Mendenhall (combined):
Winner MJD 19.4, Moren & Mendenhall 16.7 (Moreno 0.3, Mendenhall 16.4)
Ryan Grant over Cedric Benson: Loser Grant 15.6, Benson 17.7
Kevin Walter +2 over Brandon Marshall: Loser Walter 8.7 (6.7 actual +2), Marshall 11.2
Nate Burleson over Derrick Mason: Winner Burleson 7.5, Mason 3.1
SS Jamaal Charles over Laurence Maroney: Loser Charles 5.5, Maroney 14.2
Regular Picks: 3-2
Super Stretch Picks: 0-1
Regular Picks: 20-23
Super Stretch Picks: 3-8
Week 10 Picks
Joe Flacco over Carson Palmer
It seems like ages since Flacco’s Week Six monster effort against the Vikings. Since then he’s had a bye and faced two of the league’s toughest defenses in Denver and Cincinnati. This week he’ll remind fantasy owners how good he was before the bye. Palmer heads out on the road to take on a Pittsburgh defense that’s regaining its championship form.
Tim Hightower over Matt Forte
Both of these backs are active in the passing game, which helps their cause. Forte has to play during a short week on the road against the 49ers’ #4 run defense. Hightower plays the Seahawks, who are not pushover with the 11th ranked run defense. However, he’s more likely to score a TD, which is what I feel will put him over the top this week.
Laurence Maroney over Ryan Grant
Maroney faces the Colts’ 14th ranked run defense while Grant squares off against Dallas’ 12th ranked run defense. The Cowboys have allowed half as many rushing TDs (3) as Indianapolis has. Green Bay will likely be down early, which would take Grant out of the equation.
Braylon Edwards over Mike Sims-Walker
Braylon takes on the Jaguars’ 26th ranked pass defense while Sims-Walker faces the Jets 2nd ranked pass defense. Jacksonville has allowed ten more passing TDs, and Sims-Walker will have to deal with shutdown corner Darrelle Revis.
Davone Bess over Justin Gage
Bess has at least three receptions in every game this year, and is primed to pick up his first TD against Tampa Bay, who is 30th in the league with 18 TDs allowed. Even if he doesn’t score, he’s a good bet to put up solid yardage against the Bucs.
Vince Young is locking in to Gage to the tune of 138, or 46.5 percent, of the 297 yards he’s thrown for the past two weeks. However, Buffalo is 10th in the league in pass defense, and Tennessee will most likely rely on Chris Johnson this week.
Jamaal Charles over Marshawn Lynch
I’ll give Charles another chance to prove himself. If he can’t do it against the Raiders and their 29th ranked run defense, I don’t know when he’ll be able to do it. Lynch takes on the resurgent Tennessee Titan team on the road. Buffalo has struggled to move the ball through the air, so the Titans will be able to key in on shutting down Lynch.