Fantasy Football Out on a Limb 2009, Volume 11

Nov 19, 2009

Before we get started, click here for my Week 11 NFL Picks.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week

Joe Flacco over Carson Palmer:  Loser Flacco 7.75, Palmer 8.7
Tim Hightower over Matt Forte:  Loser Hightower 5.8, Forte 16.1
Laurence Maroney over Ryan Grant:  Winner Maroney 10.6, Grant 8.7
Braylon Edwards over Mike Sims-Walker:  Loser Edwards7.9 , Sims-Walker 10.9

Davone Bess over Justin Gage:  NA Gage didn’t play

SS:  Jamaal Charles over Marshawn Lynch:  Winner Charles 17.7, Lynch 5.5

Regular Picks:  1-3
Super Stretch Picks: 1-0
Overall:  2-3

Season Record
Regular Picks: 21-26
Super Stretch Picks:  4-8
Overall: 25-34

Week 11 Picks

Matthew Stafford profile Baltimore Ravens 2009 Football Headshots
Matthew Stafford over Joe Flacco
I have news for Mr. Flacco. Your easy game should have been last week against Cleveland. Now you face Indy’s solid pass defense. They have allowed just seven passing TDs on the year, which is tied for second lowest. Oh, and Dwight Freeney failed to record a Sack last week so he’ll be hungry. I’m going with the Rookie in this battle of young QBs as he takes on Cleveland at home.

Running Backs
Jason Snelling profile Ryan Grant Profile
Jason Snelling over Ryan Grant
Snelling gets the call for the Falcons while Michael Turner is out. First up is the Giants, who have allowed 12 rushing TDs on the year, which is tied for 26th. Meanwhile Grant faces the Niners run defense that is third in the league with just 87.7 yards per game allowed.

Beanie Wells profile marion barber profile
Beanie Wells over Marion Barber III
The last time I took Beanie Wells it was a train wreck, but he has been coming on strong and faces St. Louis’ porous run defense. Meanwhile Barber, who is also sharing carries, faces the Redskins, who have allowed just five rushing TDs on the year.

Wide Receivers
Sidney Rice profile Vincent Jackson
Sidney Rice over Vincent Jackson
I should have done this match-up last week, but I’ll take Rice to beat Jackson again this week. Jackson takes his show on the road to face Champ Bailey and the Broncos’ fifth ranked pass defense. Meanwhile, Rice plays a home game against Seattle, who is 21st against the pass.

Indianapolis Colts 2009 Football Headshots Derrick Mason
Pierre Garcon over Derrick Mason
I’m putting my stock in the Indy pass defense to help me get back on track. Baltimore will look to slow Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, which should leave the speedy Garcon in single-coverage. Peyton Manning will take advantage of that.

Jamal Lewis Thomas Jones
Jamal Lewis over Thomas Jones
I don’t have much confidence in Cleveland’s offense, but I don’t have much faith in Detroit’s defense either. As Jamal Lewis’ career winds down, I think he has one last hurrah courtesy of the Lions. Thomas Jones has struggled against the Patriots in recent years, and  I suspect the Patriots’ defense is going to go out of their way to support their Coach who is being grilled in the media. The infamous 4th down call was more about his confidence in his offense than a lack of confidence in his defense. Look for the Pats to make a statement.

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2 Responses so far | Have Your Say!

  1. Rotoprofessor
    November 19th, 2009 at 10:17 am #

    Sorry buddy, but I have to disagree with the Super Stretch 100%. The Jets will likely try to control the ball on the ground, keeping it away from Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. They have no chance to succeed in a shootout, and I think they know that. Plus, Lewis just isn’t very good.

  2. LestersLegends
    November 19th, 2009 at 10:20 am #

    That’s why it’s SS. As I pointed out in my Pitfalls ( Bill Belichick almost always takes away a team’s best weapon, and Jones is that. They held him to 54 yards on 14 carries in their first meeting. In his last five meeting against the Patriots, Jones has averaged just 65.4 total yards and scored just one TD.

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