Fantasy Football Out on a Limb 2009, Volume 12

Nov 26, 2009

Before we get started, click here for my Week 12 NFL Picks.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week

Matthew Stafford over Joe Flacco:  Winner Stafford 41.8, Flacco 12.6
Jason Snelling over Ryan Grant:  Winner Snelling 20.9, Grant 20.5
Beanie Wells over Marion Barber:  WinnerBeanie14.5, MB3 10.7
Sidney Rice over Vincent Jackson:  Winner Rice 20.9, V-Jax 5.6

Pierre Garcon over Derrick Mason:  Loser Garcon 10.1, Mason 14.2

SS:  Jamal Lewis over Thomas Jones:  Loser Jamal 8.8, TJ 10.3

Regular Picks:  4-1
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall:  4-2

Season Record
Regular Picks: 25-27
Super Stretch Picks:  4-9
Overall: 29-36

Week 12 Picks

Aaron Rodgers Drew Brees profile Tom Brady headshot
Aaron Rodgers over Drew Brees +1 and Tom Brady +1
Yep, I’m doing it. I’m spotting Brees and Brady a point a piece. The two collide on Monday Night in a game you’ve probably saw hyped a shade under a million times by now. Meanwhile, it’s Rodgers who I feel has the monster game of the week as he’s taking on Detroit on Thanksgiving. Detroit is dead last in passing yards allowed (275.3) and 31st in passing TDs allowed (24). What’s worse is they actually made Brady Quinn look like a good NFL QB last week.

Running Backs
Ricky Williams Chris Johnson
Ricky Williams over Chris Johnson

I should have picked this match-up last week, but I’ll take my chances that Ricky can do it again. He faces Buffalo’s run defense that ranks 31st ranked in rushing yards allowed (165.9 yards per game) and rushing TDs allowed (15). Chris Johnson faces Arizona’s 15th ranked run defense, that has allowed just 7 rushing TDs.

Jason Snelling profile Indianapolis Colts 2009 Football Headshots
Jason Snelling over Joseph Addai
I’ll ride Snelling’s hot hand. He takes on Tampa’s 32nd ranked run defense (168.9 yards per game). Addai faces Houston’s 22nd ranked run defense (120.6), but I think this one will be more about Peyton Manning than the running game.

Wide Receivers
Nate Burleson profile Jacksonville Jaguars 2009 Football Headshots
Nate Burleson over Mike Sims-Walker
Sims-Walker has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this year. While he has put up monster numbers, his track record on the road is shaky this year. He has just 139 yards in four games (34.8 yards per game) with 1 TD. Meanwhile Nate takes on St. Louis, who ranks 21st in passing yards (248.0)

San Francisco 49ers 2009 Football Headshots Steve Smith profile
Michael Crabtree over Steve Smith (CAR)
Crabtree takes on Jacksonville’s pass defense that ranks 22nd with 250.0 passing yards allowed and tied for 24th with 17 passing TDs allowed. Smith should have his hands full as Darrelle Revis will look to give him the Randy Moss treatment. The Jets are 4th with 196.4 passing yards allowed and tied for 1st with 7 passing TDs allowed. Smith has also struggled on the road averaging just 58.6 receiving yards in five games with just one TD.

Kyle Boller profile Jason Campbell
Kyle Boller over Jason Campbell
Boller is back leading the Rams attack thanks to Marc Bulger’s broken leg. He faces Seattle who is 23rd in passing yards allowed (238.7 per game) and 28th in passing TDs allowed (19). Campbell takes on the Eagles at the Linc. The Birds are tied for 9th with 200.8 passing yards allowed per game. Plus, Washington is down to their third RB, which should take its toll on their offense.

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