Fantasy Football Out on a Limb 2009, Volume 15

Dec 17, 2009

Before we get started, check out my Week 15 NFL picks.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Vince Young over Carson Palmer: Winner VY 15.0, Palmer 9.7
Ben Roethlisberger over Tom Brady:  Loser Big Ben 11.05, Brady 13.4
Ryan Fitzpatrick over Kyle Orton:  Loser Fitzpatrick 10.0, Orton 22.95
Jamaal Charles over Matt Forte +2:  Winner Charles 24.1, Forte 8.8 (6.8 actual +2)
Kevin Walter over Antonio Bryant:  Loser Walter 1.7, Bryant 2.2
SS: Joe Flacco over Brett Favre:  Winner Flacco 15.7, Favre 14.4

Regular Picks:  2-3
Super Stretch Picks:  1-0
Overall:  3-3

Season Record
Regular Picks: 32-35-1
Super Stretch Picks:  5-11
Overall: 37-46-1

Week 15 Picks
Matt Hasselbeck profile Brett Favre profile photo
Matt Hasselbeck over Brett Favre

I’m gonna pick on Favre again this week to make him prove the December thing is over. He’s averaging 197.4 yards, 1.1 TDs, and 1.6 INTs in his last ten December games. He faces a Carolina pass defense that is sixth in the league with 192.4 passing yards allowed and tied for third with 13 passing TDs allowed. Hasselbeck faces Tampa Bay, who ranks 28th with 24 passing TDs allowed.

Kansas City Chiefs 2009 Football Headshots Rashard Mendenhall profile
Jamaal Charles over Rashard Mendenhall +2
Charles has been great for the Chiefs despite all of their inadequacies.Look for him to torch Cleveland’s 28th ranked run defense (148.1 ypg). They’re also 23rd with 14 rushing TDs allowed. I’ll spot Mendenhall 20 yards, but that still should not be enough against the stingy Packers run defense that’s allowed just 85.0 rushing yards per game and 4 rushing TDs.

Houston Texans 2009 Football Headshots Ryan Grant Profile
Arian Foster over Ryan Grant
Foster is the latest Texan RB to take a crack at duplicating last year’s success. His path starts out smooth against St. Louis, who’s 27th in rushing yards allowed (147.2) and 31st in rushing TDs allowed (19). Grant is quietly putting together a nice season, but draws a tough match-up against Pittsburgh, who’s allowed 84.9 rushing yards per game and 4 rushing TDs.

D045594050.JPG DeSean Jackson
Randy Moss over DeSean Jackson
Most people wouldn’t touch Moss with a ten-foot pole in this match-up considering what went down last week. I’m from the camp that feels he’s respond to his critics with a big game. If you recall, the last time he faced the Bills he had 12 catches for 141 yards. The Patriots know they need Moss if they are going to challenge for another Super Bowl. Look for Brady to patch things up with his arm. San Francisco played inspired on Monday Night Football, and will try to bring that same energy to Philadelphia. The Niners give up yards in the air, but have only allowed 13 passing TDs, which ties them for third in the league.

Jermichael Finley profile Jason Witten profile
Jermichael Finley over Jason Witten
Finley’s size, speed, and athleticism make him a tough cover. Aaron Rodgers has been looking to him more in recent weeks. Pittsburgh is going to blitz Rodgers early and often so Finley could rack up the check-down looks. Jason Witten has played better of late, but draws a tough match-up against New Orleans.

Quinton Ganther profile DeAngelo Williams profile
Quinton Ganther over DeAngelo Williams
Ganther takes on the Giants, who are ranked 29th with 17 rushing TDs allowed. He also contributes in the passing game, which makes him a nice sneaky play. D-Will takes on the Vikings, who haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher since 2007. They rank fourth in rushing yards per game (86.9) and are tied with New England for the fewest rushing TDs allowed (3). Carolina lost RT Jeff Otah for the year so they’ll have to take on the Vikings’ front four without either starting Tackle.

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