Fantasy Football Out on a Limb 2009, Volume 16
Before we get started, check out my Week 16 NFL picks.
Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.
Matt Hasselbeck over Brett Favre: Winner Hasselbeck 17.1, Favre 11.2
Jamaal Charles over Rashard Mendenhall +2: Winner Charles 23.0, Mendenhall 19.1 (17.1 actual +2)
Arian Foster over Ryan Grant: Loser Foster 2.0, Grant 9.7
Randy Moss over DeSean Jackson: Loser Moss 13.0, DeSean 20.9
Jermichael Finley over Jason Witten: Winner Finley 13.4, Witten 4.4
SS: Quinton Ganther over DeAngelo Williams: Winner Ganther 10.0, D-Will 1.6
Regular Picks: 3-2
Super Stretch Picks: 1-0
Regular Picks: 35-37-1
Super Stretch Picks: 6-11
Week 16 Picks
Alex Smith over Peyton Manning
I pair these former #1 picks that have had completely different paths to where they are today. Manning is having the second best season of his Hall of Fame career. Alex Smith is coming off a bad game against the Eagles, but has been very productive of late. Smith should absolutely pick apart the Lions this week. Meanwhile, there is debate as to how much Manning will play this week. Plus, the Jets defense is tough against the pass.
Beanie Wells over LaDainian Tomlinson
I pit a young, talented RB just kicking off his career against a Hall of Fame RB winding down his career. Both RBs have picked up steam as the season went on, but I feel it’s Beanie who will be more productive this week as he takes on St. Louis. LT goes up against Tennessee, who despite the recent injuries on defense, should put up more of a fight. That and they struggle defending the pass, which means Philip Rivers and Co. will be very busy.
Ryan Grant over Steven Jackson
Grant is quietly putting together another solid year. He should go over 1200 yards, possibly this week as he takes on a Seattle team that’s going nowhere. December has been his best month as he has 8 TDs in 11 games, vs. 9 in the remaining 34. Jackson is gutting it out despite being all banged up. Jackson is playing on the road, where he averages 28.1 fewer total yards and has scored just one TD.
Chad Ochocino over Brandon Marshall +2
Marshall and Ocho have very similar numbers this year with Marshall having a slight edge. I believe that Ocho will score again this week to honor his fallen teammate. Marshall is playing in Philly so I’ll spot him 20 yards.
Jermichael Finley over Brent Celek
I’m going to ride Finley’s hot hand again as he takes on Seattle’s putrid pass defense. The Broncos are going to give the Eagles a fight, and I’m lowering my expectations on all of their offensive stars.
Jason Snelling over Jamaal Charles
Snelling should get to run as the lead back as the Falcons take on Buffalo’s league-worst run defense. Not only will he get the bulk of the carries between the 20′s, but will get the rock at the stripe. Charles has been amazing the second half of the season, but runs into a stingy Cincinnati run defense in what should be an emotional home game for the Bengals.