Fantasy Football Out on a Limb 2009, Volume 2

Sep 17, 2009

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week:
Brett Favre vs. Eli Manning – I lost, Eli crushed Favre 16.5 to 9.5
Darren Sproles vs. Derrick Ward  I lost as Ward outscored Sproles 14.3 to 12.6
Chester Taylor vs. LenDale White – I lost LenDale squeaked by 3.3 to 3.0.
Chad Ochocinco vs. Dwayne Bowe – I lost by a hair.  Bowe’s 10.0 t0 Chad’s 9.7.
Marques Colston vs. Andre Johnson – Finally won.  Colston 9.0, A.J. 3.5
SS:  Peyton Hillis vs. Clinton Portis – I lost.  Portis 7.2, Hillis 0.8

Regular Picks: 1-4
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall:  1-5

Season Record
Regular Picks: 1-4
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall: 1-5

Week 2 Picks:

QB

Ben Roethlisberger profile Tony Romo profile
Ben Roethlisberger over Tony Romo

Both QBs threw for over 350 yards last week, but I feel Big Ben will have to answer the call again because of Pittsburgh’s lacks a running game.  Big Ben has the easier matchup against Chicago (Romo faces the Giants), but Ben is on the road while Romo is at home.  The Giants are going to put a lot of pressure on Romo, which could force him into some turnovers.  They’ll also use a mix of Marion Barber III and Felix Jones in what should be an intense game.  Chicago just lost Brian Urlacher for the  year, which should make things a little easier for Big Ben.

RBs

Adrian Peterson profile Matt Forte profileKevin Smith profile
Adrian Peterson over Matt Forte and Kevin Smith combined

I’m doing the first 2-for-1 special of the year.  I’ll take last year’s leading rusher against two second-year backs.  I’m counting on AP to do his damage early because he could be watching the game on the sidelines in the 4th quarter as Minnesota draws Detroit.  Forte (Pittsburgh) and Smith (Minnesota) both face tough run defenses.  Although both are capable of picking up yardage in the passing game, I’m guessing neither back scores this week.

Ryan Grant profile Michael Turner profile
Ryan Grant over Michael Turner

Ryan Grant got off to a decent start against the Bears last week, and he should follow that up with a strong effort against Cincinnati at home.  Michael Turner had a somewhat disappointing start against Miami last week, and although he’s also at home, I would temper my expectations.  He’s playing a Carolina team that got dominated by Philadelphia.  They are going to come out firing to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke.  Plus, the last time Turner played Carolina he scored 4 TDs, which I’m sure the Panthers were reminded of several times this week.

WRs

Denver Broncos 2009 Football Headshots Houston Texans 2009 Football Headshots
Brandon Marshall over Andre Johnson

I’m going to pick on AJ once again.  I think he has a tough matchup going on the road to Tennessee.  Schaub is going to be under heavy pressure, and Johnson is going to draw plenty of attention.  After dealing with Darrelle Revis last week, he’ll have to deal with Cortland Finnegan this week.  Meanwhile, Marshall faces Cleveland.  He has another week to get acclimated to the offense, and Orton’s getting healthier.

Minnesota Vikings 2009 Football Headshots   Cincinnati Bengals 2009 Football Headshots
Percy Harvin over Chad Ochocinco
Brett Favre threw his first TD as a Viking to Percy, and I think the Rookie will find a way to get into the end zone again against the Lions.  He is so explosive and when the Lions try to stop AP, Harvin will get loose.  Ocho has to face Green Bay’s tough Defense.  They forced Cutler into 4 INTs.  While I don’t see Palmer making that many mistakes, the Bengals offense isn’t in sync right now.  It’s not going to happen in Lambeau this weekend.

Super Stretch

Philadelphia Eagles 2009 Football Headshots   Steven Jackson profile
LeSean McCoy +2 over Steven Jackson

With McNabb out, the Eagles are going to have to run the ball more to move the chains and keep Drew Brees and company off the field.  While Westbrook should be in line for a big game, the Eagles will have to use a heavy dose of McCoy as well to make sure Westy doesn’t get banged up.  I’m taking on a top six fantasy pick in S-Jax so I’ll spot McCoy 2 points. Jackson faces Washington, who kept Brandon Jacobs in check, on the road.  Look for them to do the same to Action Jackson.

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3 Responses so far | Have Your Say!

  1. Rotoprofessor
    September 17th, 2009 at 10:20 am #

    I love the McCoy pick. As you said, between the McNabb injury and Westbrook’s health concerns, he could have a big week. The plus 2 makes it all the better, though with Jackson against Washington & Albert Haynseworth you mayt not even need it.

  2. LestersLegends
    September 17th, 2009 at 10:25 am #

    Thanks. I think it’s a little less risky than last week’s super stretch. I think i was sniffing glue. Would explain my horrible record.

  3. Marc M from CR
    September 19th, 2009 at 8:27 am #

    Agree on McCoy. SJax gets 40 yards rushing this week. McCoy will outperform him

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