Fantasy Football Out on a Limb 2009, Volume 5

Oct 8, 2009

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week:
Carson Palmer over Philip Rivers – Loser. CP 21.5, Rivers  24.8
Glen Coffee over Fred Jackson Winner.  Coffee 10.6,.  Jackson 6.8
Cedric Benson over Steven Jackson – Winner.  Benson 8.6, SJax 8.5
Donald Driver over Marques Colston  Winner.  Driver 5.5, Colston 3.3
Kevin Walter over Braylon Edwards – Winner.  Walter 4.1, Braylon 0.0
Josh Johnson over Matt Cassel – Super Stretch Winner. JJ 19.4, Cassel 16.85

Regular Picks: 4-1
Super Stretch Picks: 1-0
Overall: 5-1

Season Record
Regular Picks: 9-10
Super Stretch Picks:  1-3
Overall: 10-13

Week 5 Picks


Buffalo Bills 2009 Football Headshots Brett Favre profile photo
Trent Edwards over Brett Favre
Trent has put together two horrific starts after starting the season off with a pair of keepers.  He faces Cleveland this week, who sadly is in worse shape than Buffalo.  Edwards should have a solid outing.  Brett Favre is coming off an incredible emotional win against his former team.  While I don’t see things blowing up in his face against St. Louis, I see him putting up modest numbers like he did in the first two weeks as the Defense and ground game d the damage.

Running Backs

Rashard Mendenhall profile Miami Dolphins 2009 Football Headshots
Rashard Mendenhall over Ronnie Brown
Mendenhall put on a clinic last week against San Diego, and should be able to pile up the yardage against Detroit as well.  Pittsburgh is a much better team when they feature a balanced attack, so look for the Steelers to give Mendenhall plenty of work.  Ronnie Brown has a tough draw against the Jets.  He managed 27 yards on 13 carries against Rex Ryan’s Baltimore D last year in Week 7 and 19 yards on 12 carries in their playoff loss to the Ravens.  With an inexperienced QB at the helm, it could be a long day for Ronnie Brown.

Brandon Jacobs profile Chris Johnson
Brandon Jacobs over Chris Johnson

With Eli Manning banged up the G-Men are going to go heavy on the run against Oakland, who happen to be terrible against the run. The Colts gave up a ton of yards to the Dolphins on the ground, but have been solid otherwise. I envision Indy putting a ton of points on the board, taking Chris Johnson out of the equation.

Wide Receivers

DeSean Jackson Calvin Johnson
DeSean Jackson over Calvin Johnson

Donovan McNabb is going to be excited to get back to work, especially with Jackson, who had a week to rest his groin. He’s quickly becoming one of the game’s most electric players, and should dominate Tampa Bay. With Daunte Culpepper likely under Center, my faith in Megatron is rattled.

Steve Smith profile D045594050.JPG
Steve Smith over Randy Moss

Coming off a bye week, I expect Steve Smith to come out like a man possessed as he takes on Washington. He’s too good to keep down, and the home cooking should do the Panthers wonders. Randy Moss has to face Champ Bailey on Sunday. The Patriots will likely use Moss as a decoy this week.

BONUS PICK:  A friend of mine suggested that I add the Giants’ Steve Smith against Carolina’s.  With Eli hurting and facing Nnamdi Asomugha, he’ll go back to the other Steve Smith this week rather than the league’s #1 WR like he’s been.


Beanie Wells profile Cincinnati Bengals 2009 Football Headshots
Beanie Wells over Cedric Benson
My thought is the Wells used the bye week to get healthy, and Arizona used it to look in the mirror and realize they need to establish a rushing attack or Kurt Warner is going to get killed out there. They drafted Beanie in the first round so he can make an impact. He’ll do that this week against Houston. Benson will have a hard time running against the Ravens in Baltimore.

Your turn.  What Out on a Limb picks do you have for Week 5?

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6 Responses so far | Have Your Say!

  1. Rotoprofessor
    October 8th, 2009 at 6:58 am #

    You have done too well with the super stretches this season, but I’m keeping my fingers crossed on this one as a Wells owner!

  2. LestersLegends
    October 8th, 2009 at 7:42 am #

    I’ve been terrible with the SS’s, but last week I got on track. Maybe I’ll get on a roll.

    October 9th, 2009 at 3:10 am #

    Here a wealth of information here. Thanks! I’ll be back for more

  4. Arizona Cardinals vs Houston Texans: A Public Relations Must Win | NFL Touchdown
    October 9th, 2009 at 11:55 pm #

    [...] LestersLegends is picking Beanie Wells to outproduce Cedric Benson this week in his weekly Fantasy Football Out On A Limb by saying, “They drafted Beanie in the first round so he can make an impact.” [...]

  5. SFonz
    October 10th, 2009 at 9:36 pm #

    Smith (NYG) will outperform both his namesake in CAR and Moss this week against OAK…how’s that for a prediction? He’s the real deal, folks…there is no going back to the “old” Steve Smith.

  6. LestersLegends
    October 11th, 2009 at 8:21 am #

    Fair enough SFonz. You can occupy the other side of the limb.

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