Fantasy Football Out on a Limb 2009, Volume 6

Oct 15, 2009

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week:
Trent Edwards over Brett Favre:  Loser Edwards 11.6, Favre 15.6
Rashard Mendenhall over Ronnie Brown:  Loser Mendenhall 15.3
, Brown 21.85
Brandon Jacobs over Chris Johnson:  Winner, Jacobs 7.5, Johnson 4.3
DeSean Jackson over Calvin Johnson:  Loser, Jackson 0.1, Johnson 0.2 (Yuck)
Steve Smith over Randy Moss:  Winner, Smith, 8.5, Moss 3.6
Graham Pick:  Steve Smith Carolina over Steve Smith NYG, Winner 8.5, 7.0
Beanie Wells over Cedric Benson:  Big Loser, Beanie 2.4, Benson 19.6

Regular Picks:  2-3
Super Stretch Picks: 0-1
Overall:  2-4

Season Record
Regular Picks: 11-13
Super Stretch Picks:  1-4
Overall: 12-17

Week 6 Picks

Brett Favre profile photo Denver Broncos 2009 Football Headshots
Brett Favre over Kyle Orton +1.5
In a matchup of undefeated QBs, I’ll go with  the 40-year old Viking.  He faces Baltimore , who has been vulnerable to the pass this year at home while Orton faces the 6th ranked Chargers pass D on the road.

Running Backs
DeAngelo Williams profile Adrian Peterson profile
DeAngelo Williams over Adrian Peterson
D-Will ripped Tampa Bay for 186 yards and 2 TDs the last time they squared off.  They are 28th in the league in run D.  Meanwhile Peterson faces Baltimore’s top five run D.  Peterson tends to struggle a bit against aggressive teams.

Philadelphia Eagles 2009 Football Headshots Julius Jones profile
LeSean McCoy over Julius Jones
Even though McCoy is a backup and Jones is a starter, I like McCoy this week.  The Eagles should pound the 31st ranked Raiders run D and McCoy should clean up when Westy gets an early reprieve.  Meanwhile Jones faces the Cardinals’ top 5 run D and will likely have to turn to the air to stay in the game.

Wide Receivers
Wes Welker over Randy Moss
Tom Brady doesn’t have his trademark confidence right now, and seems a little timid stepping into his deep throws to Moss.  He seems to prefer the short, underneath routes that are Welker’s bread & butter.  I look for him to outperform Randy this week against the Titans.

Santonio Holmes over Anquan Boldin
I’ll match these Super Bowl WRs up against each other.  Holmes has disappeared since his Week 1 explosion, but should be able to dominate Cleveland.  Boldin has a solid matchup against Seattle, but I have a feeling it’s going to be the Larry Fitzgerald Show again.

jake-delhomme1 Kansas City Chiefs 2009 Football Headshots
Jake Delhomme over Matt Cassel
Delhomme is off to a horrible start, but facing Tampa Bay’s 21st ranked pass defense should help matters.  Cassel is facing Washington’s 3rd ranked pass D.  Delhomme should win this battle.

Your turn.  What Out on a Limb picks do you have for Week 6?

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4 Responses so far | Have Your Say!

  1. Tweets that mention Fantasy Football Out on a Limb 2009, Volume 6 | --
    October 15th, 2009 at 8:01 am #

    [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Brian , Seattle Plumbing. Seattle Plumbing said: Fantasy Football Out on a Limb 2009, Volume 6: Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I sc.. [...]

  2. Rotoprofessor
    October 15th, 2009 at 8:03 am #

    No offense, but I don’t think Welker over Moss is very out there right now. I think Welker has been targeted 25 times over the past two weeks, while Moss has been targeted 9 (something like that).

  3. LestersLegends
    October 15th, 2009 at 8:19 am #

    Tennessee has been torched by #1 WRs.

    Santonio Holmes – 9, 131, TD
    Andre Johnson – 10, 149, 2 TDs
    Cotchery – 8, 108, TD
    Sims-Walker – 7, 91, 2 TDs
    Wayne – 6, 60, TD

    The trend would suggest that it would be Moss doing the damage. I’m just not sure Brady is confident in airing out the deep ball right now. Moss has had two monster games and was slowed by three great defenses. Tennessee certainly isn’t that. I think it’s more out on a limb than you think. I’m also sure Brady is well aware that he needs to get the deep ball cooking to get out of this funk.

  4. American Football NFL » Fantasy Football: Torchin’ the Tennessee Titans
    October 15th, 2009 at 11:00 am #

    [...] Randy Moss is averaging a career low 12.2 yards per catch.  Moss is being used in short, quick routes.  That’s the reason I picked Wes Welker to outperform Randy in this week’s Out on a Limb picks. [...]

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