Fantasy Football Out on a Limb 2009, Volume 7

Oct 22, 2009

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week:

Brett Favre over Kyle Orton +1.5:  Winner Favre 25.9, Orton 22.05 (20.55 actual +1.5)
DeAngelo Williams over Adrian Peterson:  Winner D-Will 29.2, AP 16.6
LeSean McCoy over Julius Jones: Winner McCoy 1.3, JJ 0.5
Wes Welker over Randy Moss: Loser Welker 27.0, Moss 30.9
Santonio Holmes over Anquan Boldin:  Winner Holmes 10.4, Boldin 5.4
Jake Delhomme over Matt Cassel:  Loser Delhomme 7.75, Cassel 10.9

Regular Picks:  4-1
Super Stretch Picks: 0-1
Overall:  4-2

Season Record
Regular Picks: 15-14
Super Stretch Picks:  1-5
Overall: 16-19

Week 7 Picks

Donovan McNabb Tony Romo
Donovan McNabb over Tony Romo
McNabb plays on the road against Washington, who is actually third against the pass (169 yards per game) with a mere 5 TDs allowed.  If you remember who’ve they played though, it’s not exactly the Dan Marinos or John Elways of the world.  Other than Eli Manning, they have faced scrubs.  McNabb and the Eagles are embarrassed by their loss to the Raiders last week and will come out firing.  Romo takes on Atlantas (21st against the pass) at home, which hasn’t exactly been a good thing for Romo this year.
- Home:  191.0 yards/game, 1 TD, 3 INTs
-Away:  319.7 yards/game, 5 TDs, 1 INT

Running Backs
Thomas Jones Cincinnati Bengals 2009 Football Headshots
Thomas Jones over Cedric Benson

I thought this would be a fun matchup.  Aside from their obvious connection, I wanted to spotlight two of the Running Backs that support Charch’s “Do the Opposite” approach.  Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson have been outstanding values thus far.  Jones is coming off a whale of a game and gets to take on Oakland’s porous 28th ranked run D.  Besides, I get the feeling the Jets are going to limit Mark Sanchez this week.  Benson gets to take on the team that cast him away, but despite that motivation, he’s taking on the 6th best run D.  TJ should win easily.

Ladainian Tomlinson profile Pierre Thomas profile
LaDainian Tomlinson over Pierre Thomas

It’s weird using LT in an underdog role, but that is exactly what he has become.    He has a couple of things going for him.  He faces Kansas City’s 25th ranked run D, who he’s averaged 123.2 total yards with 12 TDs in 15 career games.  Even more encouraging was the fact that LT looked good on MNF and was in the game in situations that have been typically reserved for Darren Sproles.  Pierre Thomas, on the other and, saw Mike Bell, Heath Evans, and even Reggie Bush score on short runs.  Oh yeah, they like to pass to.  They also take on Miami’s 3rd ranked run D.  LT over PT.

Wide Receivers
Indianapolis Colts 2009 Football Headshots Miles Austin profile
Austin Collie over Miles Austin

This is another fun one simply because of their names.  Both are coming off big games and coming out of bye weeks.  Collie faces the Rams and their 27th ranked pass defense.  Austin faces Atlanta’s 21st ranked pass defense.  Collie’s QB is the best in the game, and possibly ever.  Collie’s disappears during big games.  I like Collie to win the Austin battle.

Steve Smith profile
Santonio Holmes over Steve Smith +4
It’s hard to take Steve Smith seriously right now.  I know he has the talent to break out at any time, but I’m not confident he will.  Plus, he faces the 4th ranked Buffalo pass D.  I’ll spot him 40 yards, but will still take Holmes, who faces the Vikings, most likely without Antoine Winfield.

Indianapolis Colts 2009 Football Headshots Adrian Peterson profile
Joseph Addai over Adrian Peterson
I’ll take on AP again as he should have his hands full against Pittsburgh’s 2nd ranked Run D, especially playing on the road.  Addai takes on the smelly Rams, who rank 26th against the run.  They have also allowed the 2nd most rushing TDs (9).  Addai has scored in four of the Colts’ five games so far, and I expect him to score at least one this week.

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