Fantasy Football Out on a Limb 2009, Volume 8

Oct 29, 2009

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week:
Donovan McNabb over Tony Romo:  Loser – McNabb 11.9, Romo 30.65
Thomas Jones over Cedric Benson:  Loser – TJ 18.4, Benson 24.9
LaDainian Tomlinson over Pierre Thomas:  Winner – LT 7.3, PT 4.4
Austin Collie over Miles Austin:  Loser – Collie9.6, Austin 29.1
Santonio Holmes over Steve Smith +4:  Loser – Holmes 6, SS 13.9 (9.9 actual +4)
SS: Joseph Addai over Adrian Peterson:  Loser – Addai 12.7, AP 18.9

Regular Picks:  1-4
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall:  1-5

Season Record
Regular Picks: 16-18
Super Stretch Picks:  1-6
Overall: 17-24

Week 8 Picks

Denver Broncos 2009 Football Headshots Eli Manning Profile Photo
Kyle Orton over Eli Manning
Baltimore’s pass defense isn’t what it used to be and Orton has developed a nice connection with Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler. Eli is going to be blitzed heavily by the Eagles, which could lead to some early mistakes.

Running Backs
Steven Jackson profile Michael Turner profile
Steven Jackson over Michael Turner
Steven Jackson has yet to score this season, but something tells me he scores multiple TDs against the lowly Lions. Turner faces the Saints, who gave up three scores to Ricky last week, but for the most part has been solid against the run this year.

Kevin Smith profile Baltimore Ravens 2009 Football Headshots
Kevin Smith over Ray Rice
S-Jax isn’t the only RB that should excel in the Rams-Lions game. Kevin Smith should put up solid numbers as well. Rice will be challenged by Denver’s #3 run D.

Wide Receivers
Jacksonville Jaguars 2009 Football Headshots Greg Jennings profile
Mike Sims-Walker over Greg Jennings
Sims-Walker killed Tennesse last time out with 2 TDs, just like all #1 WRs have done this year to the Titans. Jennings hasn’t performed like a #1 WR of late.  The Vikings did a good job with Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes last week, plus Green Bay’s line will have their hands full with Jared Allen and the boys.  I don’t like Jennings this week.

Denver Broncos 2009 Football Headshots larry-fitzgerald-headshot
Brandon Marshall over Larry Fitzgerald
Like I said, Baltimore has been vulnerable against the pass and Marshall is motivated by a contract extension that appears close. Fitz has been good, not great, this year and faces the league’s #1 pass defense.

Matt Forte profile Chris Johnson DeAngelo Williams profile
Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton over DeAngelo Williams
In order to make up for my poor Super Stretch start, I’m rolling the dice by picking three Sophomore RBs to topple the superior D-Will (Chris Johnson may have more points, but most came in that one game). Forte (#31 ranked Cleveland), CJ (#13 Jax), and Slaton (#32 Buffalo) draw better opponents than DeAngelo (#1 Arizona).

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3 Responses so far | Have Your Say!

  1. Rotoprofessor
    October 29th, 2009 at 1:03 pm #

    Sorry Ryan, but I just can’t call Sims-Walker over Jennings a stretch considering he’s outproduced him all year. Jennings is the second receiver on his team right now while Sims-Walker has become one of the most targeted.

    I’d be more surprised if Jennings produced more than Sims-Walker than the other way around.

  2. LestersLegends
    October 29th, 2009 at 1:07 pm #

    The way it’s gone this year with these, watch and Jenning will beat him.

  3. LestersLegends
    November 1st, 2009 at 7:18 pm #


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