Fantasy Football Out on a Limb Volume 18

Jan 2, 2009

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

For the playoffs I will pick one matchup for Quarterback, Running Back, and Wide Receiver

6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard. 

Last Week
Tyler Thigpen
(13.95) beat Tony Romo (10.25) WHICH I WON.
LaDainian Tomlinson (27.6) beat Thomas Jones (2.4) WHICH I WON.
Cedric Benson (19.0) beat Ronnie Brown (7.2) WHICH I WON.
Antonio Bryant (7.7) beat Eddie Royal ( 7.6) WHICH I LOST.
Steve Smith (13.4) beat Vincent Jackson (7.7)  WHICH I LOST.
Super Stetch:  Jason Campbell (21.7) beat Vince Young (5.25) & David Carr (11.0) [16.25] WHICH I LOST.

Regular Picks:   3-2
Super Stretch Picks: 0-1   
Overall:  3-3

Season Record
Regular Picks:  52-33 (.612)
Super Stretch Picks:  8-8 (.500)
Overall:  60-41 (.594)

Wildcard Playoff Picks

Donovan McNabb over Philip Rivers
It was unlikely that either of the QBs would be playing this weekend a couple of weeks ago.  Not only do I give McNabb’s team a better chance of winning, I think he’ll put up better numbers than Rivers this weekend.  McNabb faces the 18th ranked Pass D of the Vikings while Rivers goes up against sixth ranked Indianapolis, who has allowed a league low six TD passes.  Rivers did have two of those TDs back in Week 12, but the playoffs are a different animal.  Jim Johnson will do his best to mix up Tarvaris Jackson, which should lead to some short fields for McNabb. 

Running Backs
michael-turner   adrian-peterson-small
Michael Turner over Adrian Peterson +3
I am so confident that Michael Turner will roll over the Cardinals that I am spotting the Rushing Champ 3 Points.  All season long Turner has exploited bad Run Defenses.  Arizona is middle of the road (16th) at 110.3 yards allowed per game, but have been very vulnerable down the stretch.  Peterson faces the fourth-ranked Philly Run D, who are tied for second with seven TDs allowed.  Unless AP breaks a long one, I do not see him having a big game.

Wide Receiver
Derrick Mason
over Vincent Jackson
Vincent Jackson has been a force down the stretch, but I’m going with the steady veteran in this battle.  Jackson caught one of the aforementioned Rivers TD passes against Indy back in Week 12, but I’m not confident he’ll come through again.  Meanwhile Mason faces Miami’s 25th ranked Pass D.  Mason is saavy enough to exploit that D.

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2 Responses so far | Have Your Say!

  1. Frank M
    January 2nd, 2009 at 11:46 am #

    I like your pick of Turner over Peterson. That is saying a lot, because I’m a major Sooner fan. Even though I’ve seen Peterson break big runs for years, I’m going with Turner in my papersports tournament.

  2. LestersLegends
    January 2nd, 2009 at 1:19 pm #

    Thanks. We’ll see this weekend. Well, maybe not as both of those games may be blacked out.

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