Fantasy Football Out on a Limb Volume 8

Oct 23, 2008

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard. 

Last Week
Jake Delhomme
(17.75) beat Aaron Rodgers (14.1) WHICH I WON
Earnest Graham (12.5) over Ronnie Brown (2.8) WHICH I WON
Chris Johnson (23.2) beat Marshawn Lynch (15.2) WHICH I WON
Andre Johnson (14.1) over Brandon Marshall +1 (9.4  [8.4 Actual plus spotted point]) WHICH I WON
Chad Ocho Cinco (11.2) beat Devin Hester (2.2) WHICH I LOST
Super Stetch:  Jeff Garcia (22.3) over Eli Manning (11.65) WHICH I WON

Regular Picks:  4-1
Super Stretch Picks:  1-0   
Overall:  5-1  
Breakdown: QB: 2-0, RB: 2-0, WR:  1-1

Season Record
Regular Picks:  23-14
Super Stretch Picks:  2-4
Overall:  25-17
Breakdown: QB: 7-3, RB: 12-5, WR: 6-6, TE:  0-1

Matt Cassel
over Eli Manning         
Cassel has 5 TDs and 1 INT at home and 1 TD and 3 INTs on the road.  He’s at home this week vs. St. Louis, who has allowed 231.2 ypg (25th) and 9 TDs (tied for 16th).  He’s also coming off a three TD performance on MNF, which had to be good for the confidence.  Eli heads out on the road to Pittsburgh, who has allowed 158.7 ypg (1st) and 5 TDs (tied for 3rd).

Running Backs
Thomas Jones over Michael Turner
I predicted a nice three-game string for TJ prior to his 3 TD game vs. Cincy.  Last week he lit up Oakland for 159 yards.  I expect him to continue the run against Kansas City, who is just awful.  They gave up 332 rushing yards and 4 TDs to Tennessee.  Meanwhile, Michael Turner’s trend is to destroy bad teams and be mediocre against good ones.  220 & 2 TDs vs Detroit (29th Run D), 104 & 3 TDs vs. KC (32nd), and 121 & 1 TD vs. GB (28th).  On the flip side he had 42 vs. Tampa (12th), 56 vs. Carolina (20th), and 54 vs. Chicago (10th).  This week they face Philly on the road.  Philly is 7th with 91.5 ypg and tied for 4th with 3 TDs allowed.

Willis McGahee
over Brandon Jacobs
Willis showed some life last week with 105 yards and a TD on 19 carries vs. Miami.  He should be productive again this week facing Oakland, who is giving up 136.2 ypg (24th) and 9 TDs (tied for 25th).  Jacobs is killing it with 6 TDs in his past four games.  Even in his first two games, which he didn’t score, he ran for 116 & 93.  This week though he faces Pittsburgh’s tough D.  They are second with just 69.7 ypg and tied for 4th with 3 TDs.  Jacobs is big enough to score on anyone, but I’m not banking on it this week.

Wide Receiver
Santana Moss
over Reggie Wayne
I’ll pit these former Hurricanes against each other this week.  Santana has the cushy matchup against Detroit, who has allowed 251.2 ypg (31st) and 11 TDs (tied for 28th).  It’s always tough going up against Wayne, but Detroit is that bad.  Meanwhile Wayne draws Tennessee, who has allowed 179 ypg (5th) and just 1 TD.

Isaac Bruce over Torry Holt
Let’s have some fun and pit these two former teammates against each other.  Bruce is facing Seattle, who’s swift fall is mimicking that of Shaun Alexander (only a couple years later).  They have allowed 242.2 ypg (29th) and 10 TDs (tied for 24th).  Holt is matched up against New England, who has allowed 196.0 ypg (14th) and 10 TDs (tied for 24th).

Malcom Floyd
over Terrell Owens
Floyd has 140 yard and 2 TDs in his last two games.  He provides a big target for Philip Rivers at 6’5″, 225 pounds.  He faces New Orleans Pass D, which has allowed 222.4 ypg (21st) and 9 TDs (tied for 16th).  I do caution you though about the weather in London.  Last year the Giants-Dolphins game was a mess.  I’ll take my chances in the Super Stretch though.  T.O. has had just 2 catches in three of his last five games.  The Cowboys will be without Romo again this week.  Tampa Bay has allowed 201.1 ypg (15th) and and 9 TDs (tied for 16th).

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4 Responses so far | Have Your Say!

  1. CK0712
    October 23rd, 2008 at 9:00 am #

    NICE! i like all the calls, specially floyd over tblow HA! seriously though, you are good at this!!

  2. LestersLegends
    October 23rd, 2008 at 9:02 am #

    thanks CK. I either hit em out of the park or swing and miss. let’s hope I go Chase Utley this week and not Ryan Howard.

  3. CK0712
    October 24th, 2008 at 3:54 am #

    LOL! great answer!

  4. Tailgate Crashers | Fantasy Football Out on a Limb Volume 8
    October 24th, 2008 at 6:08 am #

    [...] Fantasy Football Out on a Limb Volume 8 By Ryan Lester ⋅ October 24, 2008 ⋅ Post a comment | Email the author presents Fantasy Football Out on a Limb Volume 8. [...]

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