Fantasy Football Pitfalls – Week 8

Oct 27, 2009

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick five fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

With the bye weeks upon us, you can’t necessarily sit the guys on this list unless you have great depth, but expect a drop in production.

Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants - Eli has averaged 206.5 passing yards, 3.7 rushing yards, with 12 passing TDs, 10 INTs, and 1 rushing TD in ten career games against the Eagles, which works out to be roughly 13.5 fantasy points per game.  They are also playing in Philly.  Here’s a look at his past two games at The Linc:

2008:  17 of 31, 191 yards, TD, 2 INTs
2007:  17 of 31, 219 yards, INT

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos - Knowshon has an impressive start to his NFL career, but I recommend using another option if possible as he takes on the Ravens in Baltimore.  Though his only rushing TD came on the road, he is averaging just 51 yards per game on the ground away from Invesco Field at Mile High.  He also has just one catch on the road for -1 yard.

Derrick Mason, WR, Baltimore Ravens - Mason gets to face a heavy dose of Champ Bailey and Denver’s strong passing defense.  The Broncos have allowed just three passing TDs this year.  Mason is playing at home, where he is actually less productive.
Home – 3 games, 9 catches, 165 yards (55/gm), 1 TD
Away – 3 games, 17 catches, 216 yards (72/gm), 2 TDs

Since 2007:
Home – 19 games, 84 catches, 985 yards (51.8/gm), 4 TDs
Away – 19 games, 125 catches, 1520 yards (80/game), 9 TDs

Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers - The Colts have been tough against the pass all year long, and have been especially tough on opposing Tight Ends.  They held Marcedes Lewis, Anthony Fasano, Anthony Becht, Stephen Spacht, John Carlson, Bo Scaife, and Randy McMichael  to a combined 18 catches for 137 yards this year.

New York Giants Defense/Special Teams - The Giants have had one of the best defenses this season, but they draw a tough matchup this week against the Eagles.  If they can’t put pressure on Donovan McNabb, it could be a long day in Philly for the G-Men.

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9 Responses so far | Have Your Say!

  1. Rotoprofessor
    October 27th, 2009 at 8:30 am #

    Those aren’t really star tight ends your talking about the Colts defense shutting down. While I wouldn’t expect him to match his second half performance, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Davis continue to put up solid numbers, despite the match-up.

  2. LestersLegends
    October 27th, 2009 at 9:41 am #

    Carlson is a quality TE. I know they aren’t great options, but you’re talking about 22.8 yards per game. I’m not saying don’t use him, but there is a trend that shouldn’t be ignored.

  3. Rotoprofessor
    October 27th, 2009 at 11:26 am #

    But when you say that, look at their averages for the entire season:

    Lewis – 32.8
    Fasano – 12.8
    Becht – 10.0
    Spach – 4.0
    Carlson – 49.0
    Scaife – 29.5
    McMichael – 26.4

    I just can’t put too much stock in a defense shutting those guys down, because it certainly looks like everyone has been shutting them down all season long.

  4. Rotoprofessor
    October 27th, 2009 at 11:29 am #

    In fact, 22.8 yards per game is about what this group has posted all year long, so I’d almost say that they have performed as expected.

  5. LestersLegends
    October 27th, 2009 at 11:30 am #

    i guess we’ll just have to wait and see who’s right this week.

  6. LestersLegends
    October 29th, 2009 at 1:51 pm #

    Averages
    Lewis 2.5 catches, 32.8 yards, 0.33 TD
    Fasano 1.8 catches, 12.8 yards, 0.17 TD
    Becht 0.67 catchs, 6.7
    Spach 0.75 catches, 4 yards, 0 td
    Carlson 4 catches, 49 yards, 0.33 TD
    Scaife – 3 catches, 29.5 yards, 0 td
    McMichael – 2.57 catches, 26.4 yards, 0 TD

    combined averages: 15.3 catches, 161.2 yards, 0.83 TD
    indy allowed: 18, 137, 0

    Fantasy points combined average: 21.1
    Indy allowed: 13.7

    7.4 points below their average or 1.23 weekly. While it’s not a signficant number in the grand scheme of things, 1.23 fantasy points differential for a TE is pretty big considering the top 12 fantasy TEs average 9.1 points. That’s 1.23 points represents 13.5% of the top 12 TEs fantasy average. Obviously it’s even more significant if you expand to the top 20 TEs.

  7. LestersLegends
    November 1st, 2009 at 2:13 pm #

    You were right.

  8. sports betting
    November 1st, 2009 at 4:48 pm #

    I wouldn’t expect him to match his second half performance,
    it is something different.

  9. LestersLegends
    November 1st, 2009 at 5:11 pm #

    Make that part right. 3 catches for 20 yards certainly isn’t great. The TD bailed him out.

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