Fantasy Football Profile: Tom Brady
There is a high risk/reward for drafting Tom Brady. He is coming off a major knee injury that cost him virtually the entire 2008 season. He set the fantasy world on fire though in 2007 and you can argue he has an even better supporting cast with the addition of Joey Galloway. Randy Moss put together a solid season with Matt Cassel at the helm, and should return to elite status with Brady back. Wes Welker just goes out there and catches pass after pass. He should have no problem catching 100 balls for the third straight year. He fits so nicely in their system.
The Patriots are usually pretty hush hush regarding injuries, but Brady may play a little more extensively in the preseason since he missed a full season. So far Brady’s knee is not a cause for concern.
The Pats have a fairly strong schedule facing the Jets and Dolphins twice apiece, plus Baltimore, Tennessee, Carolina, and Jacksonville. When their Offense is clicking, it doesn’t really matter who they face. The key will be how Brady handles the pass rush. He’s a pretty cool customer, but it’s hard to predict how he’ll react when he gets
knocked down a couple times. My guess is he’ll be fine, but the human psyche is quite unpredictable. For the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16) Brady faces Carolina, Buffalo, and Jacksonville. Carolina and Jacksonville are home games so all three have the potential for inclement weather. It’s not a deal breaker by any means, but something to keep in mind when you are weighing Brady against Drew Brees, Peyton Manning or holding off on a QB for a few rounds as Brady will likely go in the late first/early second round.
It’s hard to project numbers for Brady, but I’ll put him on a 4400, 30 TD season. Those numbers are better than what I projected for Drew Brees, but I would still take Brees ahead of Brady because of the uncertainty of his knee.