Fantasy Football Trader’s NFL Roundtable: RB Poised for a Fall

May 17, 2011

This week’s topic
What top 15 running back do you feel is poised for a fall?
My response:
Even before winning the Madden NFL 12 cover contest, I was down on Peyton Hillis. Now that he also has the Madden Curse to deal with, that pretty much sealed his fate for me. The likelihood that he will be available when I am comfortable drafting him is razor thin.
Browns GM Tom Heckert admitted that the Browns overused Hillis last year. There is little chance he gets as many touches this year. Montario Hardesty should be fully recovered from his ACL surgery, which will put them both smack dab in the middle of a RBBC. Hardesty was supposed to be the featured back before suffering the injury. Obviously Hillis played his way into a healthy workload, but he will have to share.
As Colt McCoy becomes more comfortable in the offense, I anticipate the Browns attempting more than the 478 passes they did last year, which could also cut into the workload.
Hillis finished the season averaging 35.7 rushing yards in his last three games and 54.4 in his last five. After scoring 13 touchdowns (11 rushing) in his first 11 games, he failed to score in his final five. Like I said, the writing was on the wall before the Madden cover. Do you really want to test the Madden Curse with an early draft pick?

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