Fantasy Keeper League Summary

Oct 27, 2008

Written by Joe Zwierzynski

Draft Recap

To start, the league being drafted is made up of 12 members, head-to-head, with 9 categories (fgm, fg%, ft%, pts, reb, asts, stls, blks, and 3’s). It is a keeper league, where each team can keep 3 guys the following year, with a penalty of having the guy drafted costing a draft pick two rounds ahead the following year. Obviously, this puts a huge bonus on first round picks that will cost a first round pick in subsequent years. The league allows pre-draft trading of picks, which was evident with three major trades prior to the draft.

The draft order was based off of a NFL fantasy contest from the week 6 games.

Prior to the draft, three trades were made in order:

Joe Z. traded the 7th overall pick (7) along with his 13th (151) and 14th (162) round picks for Delon F. and Kevin P.’s 2nd, 3rd, and 5th round picks (20, 29, and 53).

Adam B. traded the 2nd pick overall (2), along with his 13th (146) and 14th (167) round picks for Ryan L.’s 2nd, 3rd, and 4rth round picks (24, 25, 48).

Jason M. traded the 9th overall pick (9), along with his 10th (112) and 14th (160) picks for Marc M’s 3rd, 4rth, and 6th round picks (36, 37, and 61).

Round One
Ryan L. – Lebron James
Ryan L. – Chris Paul
Kevin H. – Kobe Bryant
Nabate I. – Amare Stoudamire
Delon F./ Kevin P. – Dwight Howard
Mike / Ev – Dwyane Wade
Delon F. / Kevin P. – Deron Williams
Chris V. – Dirk Nowitzki
Marc M. – Allen Iverson
Tim C. – Steve Nash
Ian G. – Elton Brand
Marc M. – Joe Johnson

Round One Evaluation
Best Value Pick: Lebron James at one is a no brainer. His free throw percentage woes are lessened in a head to head league, and there is no reason that his numbers won’t go even higher with Mo Williams manning the point and with his continued development.

Worst Value Pick: I have been able to see Allen Iverson in person twice since March, and I am convinced that his age has finally taken a toll on his speed. He’s a great competitor, but drafting him 9th overall assumes the best case scenario with the great warrior, and I just can’t see it happening. I predict a Jason Kidd type decline.

Biggest Question: Even though Kobe Bryant is only 29, he’s logged more NBA minutes than most 29 year olds. Will he keep pace to warrant being the third pick in this draft over Amare Stoudamire, not just this year, but in years to come.

Keeper Thoughts: Ryan L. has a huge keeper start with Lebron James and Chris Paul for the remainder of their careers barring injuries. The remainder of the top 8 should be keeping their people next year also. With Iverson and Nash’s age, they are question marks for keeping next year, while Elton Brand coming off injury and Joe Johnson being a top 12 guy are question marks.

Round Two 
Marc M. – Danny Granger
Ian G. – Josh Smith
Tim C. – Kevin Garnett
Jason M. – Baron Davis
Chris V. – Al Jefferson
Joe Z. – Jose Calderon
Mike / Ev – Carmelo Anthony
Joe Z. – Kevin Durant
Nabate I. – Rashard Lewis
Kevin H. – Carlos Boozer
Adam B. – Marcus Camby
Adam B. – Andre Iguodala

Round Two Evaluation
Best Value Pick: Even though I am a Syracuse grad, I can say without bias that Carmelo Anthony will continue to gain fantasy value. His rebounds will go up without Marcus Camby in Denver, and he makes a ton of shots at a growing field goal percentage.

Worst value Pick: I have to question my own love for Kevin Durant. Even though his field goal percentage grew in the second half of the season, he still didn’t provide a ton of rebounds or assists for someone of his skill level. The upside is there, but are the actual fantasy numbers?

Biggest Question: Will Marcus Camby provide numbers next to Chris Kaman at the age of 34 as an LA Clipper? That’s assuming he stays healthy.

Keeper Thoughts: Most of the second round will maintain value next year, although Garnett probably will continue his focus on winning as opposed to fantasy stats. It will be interesting to see if Granger becomes the next Shawn Marion and if Jose Calderon becomes the next Steve Nash.

Round Three
Adam B. – Rudy Gay
Adam B. – Jason Richardson
Kevin H. – Paul Pierce
Nabate I. – Jason Kidd
Joe Z. – Caron Butler
Mike / Ev. – Shawn Marion
Joe Z. – Tim Duncan
Chris V. – Vince Carter
Jason M. – Hedo Turkoglu
Tim C. – Yao Ming
Ian G. – Chris Bosh
Jason M. – Pau Gasol

Round Three Evaluation
Best Value Pick: Tim Duncan. His free throw percentage wasn’t as bad as the past last year, and with Manu Ginobili out, Duncan will put up reliable numbers. Chris Bosh at 35 was a low risk pick also, even though he’ll lose stats to Jermaine O’Neal if healthy.

Worst Value Pick: Hedo Turkoglu. Turkoglu had a great year last year, but its likely that last year was a career year when looking at what he did in Orlando the prior two years. Guys such as Michael Redd and Mike Miller provide similar production with less risk later in the draft. He narrowly edges Jason Kidd who had a huge decline last year, and kills FG% and FGM in this league.

Biggest Questions: How will Shawn Marion be outside of Phoenix with a healthy Dwyane Wade and Michael Beasley stealing fantasy stats. Bill Simmons labeled Yao Ming as Yao Muresan after seeing him this preseason. Will Yao be the top 5 guy that he could be, will he drop, or will he get hurt and miss 25 games as he has the last three years.

Keeper Thoughts: Gay, Butler, Carter, and Bosh should be similar values next year. Yao might have a healthy year and justify his year. Kidd dropped significantly last year, so its hard to see him keeping value. Gasol was a fantasy disappointment last year and if Andrew Bynum is healthy, he should have a hard time maintaining value.

Round Four
Jason M. – Kevin Martin
Ian G. – Chauncey Billups
Tim C. – David West
Jason M. – Antawn Jamison
Chris V. – Brandon Roy
Joe Z. – Mike Miller
Mike / Ev. – Ron Artest
Delon F. / Kevin P. – Peja Stojakovic
Nabate I. – Michael Redd
Kevin H. – Andre Miller
Adam B. – Rasheed Wallace
Adam B. – Gerald Wallace

Round Four Evaluation
Best Value Pick: David West provides value similar to Carlos Boozer almost 20 picks later. He has a reliable point guard and little downside.

Worst Value Pick: Peja Stojakovic gives nothing other than points, 3’s and free throw %. For a team that traded their second, third, and fifth round picks, not getting someone with more than three category value is a mistake. Rasheed Wallace is an equal mistake as he is a center that doesn’t give points or rebounds, and kills FG%.

Biggest Question(s): What is Andre Miller’s value after the Elton Brand acquisition? He provides no 3’s, but does his assists total skyrocket? It is certain that his scoring dips.

Keeper Thoughts: Knowing that keeping a 4th rounder will cost a 2nd rounder next year, there doesn’t appear to be a ton of value here. Kevin Martin and David West should be at similar draft positions next year, and Brandon Roy could move up, but beyond that its difficult to see anyone here being worth keeping as a 2nd rounder unless the owner has 2 out of their first three picks worth keeping.

Round Five
Ryan L. – Al Horford
Adam B. – Lamar Odom
Kevin H. – Greg Oden
Nabate I. – Devin Harris
Joe Z. – Michael Beasley
Mike / Ev. – Michael Dunleavy
Joe Z. – David Lee
Chris V. – Stephen Jackson
Jason M. – Mehmet Okur
Tim C. – Richard Jefferson
Ian G. – Tracy McGrady
Marc M. – Jamal Crawford

Round Five Evaluations 
Best Value Pick: Mehmet Okur. After a disappointing season overall last year, Okur dropped some weight and looks to be back to his 2006 self.

Worst Value Pick(s): Lamar Odom. It looks like Odom might not start, and with Gasol, Bynum, and Kobe being the big stat people, Odom will struggle to put up his usual 15/9.

Jamal Crawford kills FG% and is already been criticized by new coach Mike D’Antoni.

Biggest Question(s): Will T-Mac shoot a high enough FG% and stay healthy? If so, he’s a second rounder. If not, he’s a team killer.

Keeper Thoughts: Greg Oden and Michael Beasley should put up great numbers this year. Will they be worth keeping as third rounders next year?

Trade Evaluations
Delon F. / Kevin P. ended up acquiring Deron Williams, Mario Chalmers, and Joe Alexander for Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan, and Michael Beasley from Joe Z. I’ll leave this up for others evaluation since its my trade. I will say that Jason’s trade of the number 9 pick netted much less draft pick value.

Ryan L. ended up acquiring Chris Paul, Nate Robinson, and Darko Milicic for Rudy Gay, Andre Iguodala, and Gerald Wallace. I love Rudy Gay, but Ryan easily wins this trade not only this year, but in years to come as he keeps Chris Paul.

Marc M. ended up acquiring Allen Iverson, Thaddeus Young, and Rudy Fernandez for Paul Gasol, Kevin Martin, and Josh Howard. Even though Jason got worse value for his number nine pick than what was traded for the seven, he clearly dominated this trade due to Marc’s poor drafting. If Marc had drafted Steve Nash, he could have at least dominated a category.

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